2020年经济学人 非洲货币(1)（在线收听）

In 1979 an IMF negotiator met Julius Nyerere, Tanzania's socialist president, and urged him to weaken the country's currency.

1979年，一名IMF谈判代表会见了坦桑尼亚的社会党总统朱利叶斯·尼雷尔，并敦促他削弱该国的货币。

"I will devalue the shilling over my dead body," Nyerere fumed afterwards.

尼雷尔事后生气的说，“要让先令贬值，除非我死了。”

Over the next decade, many African leaders took similar stands.

在接下来的十年里，许多非洲领导人采取了类似的立场。

But faced with worsening terms of trade and foreign-currency shortages, they eventually let their currencies slide.

但面对不断恶化的贸易条件和外汇短缺，他们最终让本币贬值。

Tanzania bowed to the inevitable in 1986, after Nyerere had left office.

1986年，尼雷尔下台后，坦桑尼亚向命运低头。

Most African exchange rates are now about where markets think they should be.

目前，大多数非洲国家的汇率处于市场认为它们应该处于的位置。

Could governments go further? An undervalued currency makes a country's exports cheaper,

政府能更进一步吗？被低估的货币会使一个国家的出口产品更便宜，

and so acts as an implicit subsidy to firms that sell abroad.

因此对出口产品的公司来说，这是一种暗补。

That can counterbalance institutional failures, such as the difficulty of enforcing contracts,

这可以抵消制度上的失败，比如执行合同的困难，

which hurt exporters more than they do local businesses—barbers, taxi-drivers and the like.

这对出口商的伤害比对当地企业——理发师、出租车司机等——的伤害更大。

Exposure to world markets also helps companies learn and improve.

接触世界市场也有助于企业学习和提高。

Dani Rodrik of Harvard University argues that governments in developing countries

哈佛大学的丹尼·罗德里克认为发展中国家的政府

should not simply aim for an "equilibrium" exchange rate, as the IMF would urge, but actively engineer undervaluation.

不应像IMF敦促的那样，简单地以“均衡”汇率为目标，而应积极策划低估价值。

That may entail measures such as capital controls or reserve accumulation.

这可能需要采取资本管制或储备积累等措施。

Some Asian countries, including China, adopted this strategy as they industrialised.

一些亚洲国家，包括中国，在工业化过程中采取了这一战略。

Empirical studies suggest that undervaluation boosts growth, and more so in poor countries than in rich ones.

经验研究表明，低估促进了经济增长，这一点在贫困国家比在富国更明显。

Strange, then, that those African countries that do manage their currencies are still trying to prop them up.

奇怪的是，那些管理本国货币的非洲国家仍在努力支撑本国货币。

Nigeria restricts access to foreign exchange to keep the naira strong.

尼日利亚限制外汇交易以保持奈拉的强势。

Ethiopia's drive to become an Asian-style hub for export manufacturing has been hindered by an overvalued birr

埃塞俄比亚想要成为亚洲版出口制造业中心的努力受到了高估比尔的阻碍

(though a new IMF programme could weaken it).

（尽管IMF的新计划可能会削弱它）。

A group of eight mostly francophone west African countries are changing the name of their currency but not, tellingly,

一个由8个以法语为主要语言的西非国家组成的组织正在改变他们货币的名称，

the rate at which it is pegged to the euro. The last devaluation, in 1994, sparked riots.

但并没有改变其与欧元挂钩的汇率。上一次货币贬值发生在1994年，引发了骚乱。

A tendency to keep the currency strong is built into the structure of African economies.

保持货币坚挺是非洲经济结构的内在要求。