2020年经济学人 流行病威胁下世界经济的良药(2)（在线收听）

The first task is to get manpower and money to hospitals. China drafted in 40,000 health workers to Hubei province. Britain may bring medics out of retirement. This week the World Bank made $12bn and the IMF $50bn available for covid-19. The Global Fund, which fights diseases like malaria and TB, said countries can switch grants. In America Congress is allocating $8.3bn of funding. The country has some of the world’s most advanced hospitals, but its fragmented health system has little spare capacity. Much more money will be needed.

第一个任务是为医院筹集人力和资金。中国向湖北省抽调了4万名医护人员。英国可能会让退休的医护人员重返工作岗位。本周，世界银行和国际货币基金组织分别为抗击covid-19提供了120亿美元和500亿美元。抗击疟疾和结核病等疾病的全球基金表示，各国可以改变资助方式。美国国会正在拨款83亿美元。美国拥有世界上最先进的医院，但其支离破碎的卫生系统几乎没有备用生产力。需要更多资金。

Just as important is to slow the spread of the disease by getting patients to come forward for testing when outbreaks are small and possible to contain. They may be deterred in many countries, including much of America, where 28m people are without health coverage and many more have to pay for a large slug of their own treatment. People also need to isolate themselves if they have mild symptoms, as about 80% of them will. Here sick pay matters, because many people cannot afford to miss work. In America a quarter of employees have no access to paid sick leave and only scattered states and cities offer sickness benefits. Often the self-employed, a fifth of Italy’s workforce, do not qualify. One study found that, in epidemics, guaranteed sick pay cuts the spread of flu in America by 40%.

同样重要的是，在疫情规模不大且可能得到控制的情况下，要让患者主动进行检测，从而减缓疾病的传播。在许多国家，包括美国的大部分地区，人们可能会望而却步，因为有2800万人没有医疗保险，更多人不得不为自己的治疗买单。如果有轻微症状，人们也需要自我隔离，大约80%的人能做到。在这种情况下，带薪病假很重要，因为许多人负担不起失业。在美国，四分之一的员工没有带薪病假，只有一些零零散散的州和城市提供病假福利。通常情况下，占意大利劳动力五分之一的私营企业不符合条件。一项研究发现，在流行病期间，保证带薪病假将使流感在美国的传播减少40%。

Sick pay also helps soften the blow to demand which, along with a supply shock and a general panic, is hitting economies. These three factors, as China shows, can have a dramatic effect on output. Manufacturing activity there sank in February to its lowest level since managers were first surveyed in 2004. In the quarter to March the economy as a whole could shrink for the first time since the death of Mao Zedong. The OECD expects global growth this year to be its slowest since 2009. Modelling by academics at the Australian National University suggests that GDP in America and Europe would be 2% lower than it would have been in the absence of a pandemic and perhaps as much as 8% lower if the rate of deaths is many times higher than expected. Financial markets are pricing in fear. The S&P 500 has fallen by 8% from its peak on February 19th. Issuance of corporate debt on Wall Street has more or less stopped. The yield on ten-year Treasuries dipped below 1% for the first time ever.

需求下降再加上供应冲击和普遍的恐慌对经济造成打击，带薪病假也有助于减轻这种影响。正如中国所显示的，这三个因素可能对产出产生巨大影响。2月份制造业活动水平降至自2004年首次对经理人进行调查以来的最低水平。在第三季度，中国经济整体可能出现自毛泽东逝世后的首次萎缩。经合组织预计，今年全球经济增速将达到2009年以来最低。澳大利亚国立大学学者建立的模型显示，美国和欧洲的GDP将比没有流行病的情况下低2%，如果死亡率比预期高出许多倍，则可能低8%。金融市场在恐惧中定价。标准普尔500指数从2月19日的最高点下跌了8%。华尔街的公司债券发行或多或少已经停止。十年期国债的收益率有史以来第一次跌至1%以下。