PBS高端访谈:爱荷华州新总统候选人最新民调情况（在线收听）

JUDY WOODRUFF: Here to break down what those new numbers from Iowa mean for the 2020 Democratic presidential candidates, I'm joined by longtime Iowa pollster Ann Selzer, whose group, Selzer & Company, conducted the poll. Ann Selzer, welcome back to the NewsHour. So let's look again at those numbers, the main storyline, Elizabeth Warren at 22 percent, Joe Biden at 20 percent, Bernie Sanders at 11, everybody else in single digits. How much of a change is this from your last poll, and who is supporting Elizabeth Warren?

J. ANN SELZER, Selzer & Company, Inc.: Well, it's a nice jump for Elizabeth Warren. If you're up with of her supporters, you would see it that way. What she has done is really begun to build a coalition, and that includes women and college-educated likely caucus-goers. And for the first time, she is now leading with the under-35 age group. That's an encroachment into territory that was held by Bernie Sanders almost exclusively. So, she's eating into the support that he used to have there.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And you looked at enthusiasm as well. You had a category, are you extremely enthusiastic about a candidate, very enthusiastic? What did you see there?

J. ANN SELZER: Well, you see two things. First of all, we have got Warren and Biden at the top of the leaderboard, and the advantage goes to Elizabeth Warren, with slightly more saying they are extremely enthusiastic about that by 10 points, 32 percent vs. 22 percent for Joe Biden. But, really, if you look at the other two contenders -- and that would be Bernie Sanders and Pete Buttigieg -- it's almost half of their supporters who say they feel extremely enthusiastic. So it gives you a sense that there's other -- there are other coalitions building that could pop another candidate forward.

JUDY WOODRUFF: You also looked at what – I think you're calling it the footprint, who was a voter's first and second choice. What did you see?

J. ANN SELZER: Well, it's first and second choice, and then, are you actively considering them? And there, also, Elizabeth Warren jumped about 10 points. She now has 71 percent of likely Democratic caucus-goers saying they're actively considering her or placed her first or second on their list. Joe Biden didn't move, stayed about where he was. You have three other candidates who crossed the 50 percent mark. And that's Bernie Sanders, that's Pete Buttigieg, and then rounding out that team is Kamala Harris. So I look at the rest of those with some upside potential. They have get enough people who are interested in them to make potentially a forward move. And we saw Elizabeth Warren poised in our last poll to do exactly that.

JUDY WOODRUFF: And that's -- and I do want to ask you about that, Ann Selzer, because some folks would look at this and say, well, this is really not good news for the people who are polling in single digits. But I hear you saying there's still movement. I mean, what are we looking at? A large percentage of Iowa voters are telling you they are -- Democrats, Democratic voters, are saying they're not -- you know, they may change their mind about who they're going to vote for.

J. ANN SELZER: Well, that's exactly right. And there are two numbers I would point you to. First of all, the top three that are in single digits, that's 53 percent of the vote, so there's a lot of vote left to be had. And, secondly, we asked, if you had a first choice, is your mind made up? And that accounts for 20 percent of all the likely voters who say, I have a first choice and my mind is made up. So they either don't have a first choice or they're open to considering other possibilities. And anybody who knows Iowa would know that sounds just like Iowa in caucus season.

JUDY WOODRUFF: Well, we are still several months away. And, Ann Selzer, I know you're going to keep on polling. Thank you very much.

J. ANN SELZER: My pleasure, Judy.

朱迪·伍德拉夫：今天我们来了解一下2020年民主党在爱荷华州的新总统候选人情况。今天的节目还邀请了爱荷华州做了很久的民意调查人安·塞尔泽做了这次的民意调研。安·塞尔泽：欢迎收听《新闻一小时》。那么，我们来审视一下这些数据，大头的数据是——伊丽莎白·沃伦占比22%，乔·拜登占比20%，伯尼·桑德斯占比11%，剩下的人占比都是个位数。这次民意调研的数据跟上一次相比，有什么变化呢？现在支持伊丽莎白·沃伦的都是什么人呢？

安·塞尔泽：这次的数据对伊丽莎白·沃伦来说是有不错的涨势。如果你也支持沃伦的话，那么你也会这样看这件事。沃伦的功绩在于——她真地开始创建一个联盟，联盟里有女性，也有受过大学教育的骨干成员。这是她第一次在35岁以下的选民中获得领先的支持。她抢走了桑德斯专属的一部分支持者。桑德斯以前的一部分支持者转而支持沃伦了。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：你也关注了大家的热情度吧。上面有一个指标是——选民是否对某位候选人极度热忱/热情？关于这项指标，你看的数据是怎样的呢？

安·塞尔泽：这方面可以看出2件事。首先，沃伦和拜登的排名都靠前。沃伦更占上风，比拜登多了10%的热忱度。不过，如果我们看看另外两位候选人——桑德斯和皮特——获得的选民热忱度几乎是他们的一半。所以，我们就会有这样一种感觉——有其他一些联盟的存在是可以让某位候选人脱颖而出的。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：你也注意到了一些数据，我们姑且称之为足迹吧——哪位候选人是首选，哪位是次选。在方面，你观察到什么了吗？

安·塞尔泽：关于首选和次选的问题，大家也在关注了吗？在这方面，沃伦依然领先了近10%。现在，有71%的民主党骨干成员说他们正在认真考虑将沃伦放在首选还是次选。拜登在这方面的数据没有变化，跟之前一样。还有3名候选人超过了50%。他们是桑德斯、皮特、哈里斯。剩下的这几位候选人，我觉得是很有潜力的。有很多人都对他们感兴趣，愿意进一步了解甚至支持他们。在上一次的民调中，我们看到沃伦就是这样的。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：安，我特别想问的是——因为有些人看完数据之后就会说，对支持率为个位数的人来说，这不是好消息。但我听你说，数据还在不断变化。那么我们应该关注的点是什么呢？爱荷华州的许多选民说自己是民主党这边的，而民主党选民说他们不是这边的——他们可能随时改变主意，会去投另一个人。

安·塞尔泽：确实如此。还有2个数字，我想特别指出一下。首先，支持率为个位数的前三名，占了53%的票比。所以还有很多票是可以浮动的。其二是：当我们问选民他们的第一选择想好了吗的时候。有20%的选民说他们已经想好了第一选择，已经想好了。所以，很多选民都还没想好，他们可以做出不同可能的选择。任何了解爱荷华州的人都知道预选季的爱荷华州就是这样。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：还有几个月才见分晓。安·塞尔泽，我知道你会一直关注民调的，也谢谢你今天的分享。

安·塞尔泽：客气啦，朱迪。