PBS高端访谈:伊斯兰国领导人的死意味着什么?（在线收听）

Hari Sreenivasan: For more perspective on Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi and ISIS, I'm joined here in the studio by Jennifer Carfarella. She's a research director at the Institute for the Study of War. So if we're to believe that it is him because, he's been said to be dead before. But I think this one seemed somewhat more real. How significant is it?

Jennifer Cafarella: The elimination of the ISIS leader, Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi is a very big deal. We've been on the hunt for this individual since 2014 when we intervened to halt ISIS' rampage across the Middle East. And the death of Baghdadi could actually have a disruptive effect not only on the ability of ISIS to reconstitute inside of Iraq and Syria, but also potentially disrupting ISIS' global expansion, which has been a key priority for Baghdadi, and his emphasis this year, actually, up until his death.

Hari Sreenivasan: And he was sort of tactically a little different in that he didn't necessarily want everybody to show up here any more, or show up there, he just said go ahead and do your attacks wherever you are.

Jennifer Cafarella: Yeah. ISIS has prioritized inspiring attacks essentially wherever there are Muslim populations that could respond to his call. And the problem that the U.S. has faced, even before the elimination of Baghdadi, is that ISIS already diversified its footprint for how it is generating not only the inspired attacks, but also the high level coordinated ISIS attacks. So there are actually four global provinces of the Islamic State that have thus far participated in attack plots in the West.

Hari Sreenivasan: And in that case, considering that ISIS is diversifying geographically, how much does the leadership structure, how much of it is centrally commanded and controlled? I mean, I've heard that he had lots of fail-safes and high security measures. Does he have a succession plan that is automatically triggered? 'If you guys hear that I'm dead. You take over.'

Jennifer Cafarella: I do expect that Baghdadi has a succession plan. We don't yet know. We'll see in coming days how fast a successor is named. But he was running a very coordinated and disciplined military organization, again, not just in Iraq and Syria, but globally as well. So I think one of the key questions is how dependent was the linkage between the global operations and the fight in Iraq and Syria? How connected was that to Baghdadi, the person, or how much of that was run by, say, his deputies or his overall military commander? I don't think we yet know. That'll be something to watch for as the aftermath of Baghdadi's death unfolds.

Hari Sreenivasan: And what about the fact that this happened in northwestern Syria, an area that really al-Qaida is supposed to be dominant in, and these are factions that don't get along.

Was he trying to create a bridge, perhaps?

Jennifer Cafarella: Yeah. This is the big surprise in the death of Baghdadi, the location where U.S. forces eliminated him. ISIS had been conducting a campaign for over a year now to expand its presence in Idlib to try to undermine the al-Qaida governing project in Idlib, which was a challenge, a potential competitor to the Islamic State. So for that reason, actually, is why it was surprising that Baghdadi was there amidst offensive operations against al-Qaida. You wouldn't expect him to be co-located with that kind of a fight. But his location in the al-Qaida dominated area could indicate a couple of things. First, it's possible al-Qaida doesn't have that strong of a hold on that terrain, as we expected, or ultimately and most dangerously, he may have been involved in renewed negotiations with one or more of the al-Qaida factions operating in Idlib, which share his desire to conduct attacks against the West.

Hari Sreenivasan: And finally, what about this, the taunting, or at least the language the president used, does that resonate with his supporters or are they just gonna consider him a martyr outright regardless of the circumstances of the death?

Jennifer Cafarella: I think that the language that we all use to describe the Islamic State has most of an effect on those who fight ISIS, right? This is a huge morale victory for all of the civilians and military forces across this region that have risked their lives to confront or escape this organization. I do think it's appropriate for the U.S. to take a victory lap on this. This was a significant accomplishment, although I do not expect that it actually will break the will of ISIS' fighting forced to continue to fight.

Hari Sreenivasan: Jennifer Cafarella, thanks so much for joining us.

Jennifer Cafarella: You bet. Thank you.

哈里·斯里尼瓦桑：本期节目将带来有关IS及其首脑巴格达迪的更多视角，今天我们邀请詹尼弗来到了演播室。詹妮弗是战争研究所的研究室主任。所以我们是否要相信死者是首脑巴格达迪呢？毕竟之前巴格达迪已经“被死”好多次了。但我觉得这一次的消息看起来更真实。那么这件事影响有多大呢？

詹妮弗：他是IS的首脑，所以如果他死了的话，那影响会很大。自2014年以来，我们就一直在寻找巴格达迪，我们还插手阻止了IS在中东的肆虐。巴格达迪的离世不仅会对IS在伊拉克和叙利亚境内东山再起的能力造成扰乱，也很有可能会破坏IS的全球扩张，而全球扩张是巴格达迪最重视的事情。也是他今年的重中之重。不过，他还是死了。

哈里·斯里尼瓦桑：巴格达迪的战术也稍有变化，因为他之前是不希望战士们指定出现在某个地方。他只会说，去干吧，去发动袭击吧，无论你们在哪里。

詹妮弗：没错。IS的首要目标是鼓励战士发动袭击，只要发动袭击的地方有穆斯林就能回应他的号召。而美国面临的问题，不管是巴格达迪去世前还是去世后，都是：IS倡导发动袭击的方式已经变得多样化，高层指挥IS作战的方式也变得多样化。所以，实际上，IS在全球有4个省份参与到了针对西方的袭击计划中。

哈里·斯里尼瓦桑：如果是这样的话，那么考虑IS在地理上的多样性，领导团队的结构在多大程度上是受到中央指挥和控制的呢？我曾听说巴格达迪有许多自动防故障装置和高安全措施。巴格达迪是否有自动触发的继任计划呢？“如果你们听说我死了的话，请接管我的职位。”

詹妮弗：我个人确实认为巴格达迪是有继任计划的，但我们还不确定。未来数天内，我们会关注命名继任者的速度。但IS是一个协作性根强、纪律性很强的军事组织，不仅在伊拉克和叙利亚是如此，在全球范围内都是如此。所以，我们觉得其中一个主要问题是：全球行动与伊拉克叙利亚的战斗之间有什么关系，他们彼此之间有多倚重。这种倚重关系与巴格达迪有什么关系，上述行动在多大程度是受副手只会或者整体军事指挥官指挥的。我觉得这一点，我们还不清楚。所以这一点也会成为巴格达迪时候我们将要关注的情况。

哈里·斯里尼瓦桑：那这件事发生在叙利亚西北部，这个有什么含义吗？毕竟这个地方是基地组织的活动区域，而这两个恐怖组织又互相看不对眼。巴格达迪是否有尝试在两个组织之间构建桥梁呢？

詹妮弗：没错，这是巴格达迪死讯中比较让人惊奇的一点，巴格达迪竟然是在这里被美军杀掉了。IS已经在伊德利卜省发动了一年的扩张活动，试图瓦解基地组织在伊德利卜的项目。基地组织对IS来说是一种挑战性的存在，是潜在的竞争对手。所以，出于这个原因，我们很惊奇巴格达迪竟然是在针对基地组织行动的地方死去了。在这类战斗中，按理来说巴格达迪是不应该同地协作的。但巴格达迪在基地组织的底盘出现，这个事实能折射许多含义。首先，可能基地组织对该地区的控制并不强，而且最危险的可能性是：巴格达迪可能在持续地跟伊德利卜省的基地组织分支进行谈判。双方或许有针对西方的共同打击计划。

哈里·斯里尼瓦桑：所以，最后，按照总统的话来说，这是一种嘲弄。巴格达迪的这种做法是否能在支持者之间引起共鸣，支持者们是否会将巴格达迪视为烈士，鉴于巴格达迪已经死了。

詹妮弗：我觉得我们描述IS的辞藻对于抵制IS的人是有影响的，对吗？巴格达迪的死讯对于该地区的平民和军队来说有士气上的鼓舞作用，毕竟平民和军队都冒着生命危险来抗击并逃脱IS的威胁。我确实觉得巴格达迪的死讯是值得美国庆祝一番的。这是巨大的胜利，虽然我不期望巴格达迪的死会让IS断了继续打仗的念想。

哈里·斯里尼瓦桑：詹妮弗，感谢加入本期节目。

詹妮弗：我的荣幸。谢谢大家。