PBS高端访谈:新冠病毒对未来经济的影响（在线收听）

Judy Woodruff: Economic damage from this virus keeps piling up, amid talk of sweeping financial aid. The Dow Jones industrial average, as we reported, crashed again today, losing more than 1,300 points, to close below 19,900. The Nasdaq fell 345 points, and the S&P 500 gave up 131. For insight into all of this, I'm joined once again by David Wessel, director of the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy at the Brookings Institution. David, welcome back to the program. So it seems that, no matter what Congress does and we have heard from Lisa reporting on that, the markets, the investors just don't seem to be reassured. Is that what's going on?

David Wessel: Right. I think that what we're seeing is the markets and investors are...A, they're talking, they're realizing there's a lot of uncertainty. Secondly, they're extremely risk-averse. No one wants to hold any risky assets. And they're thinking that this might go on for a while, and it might do some long-lasting harm to the economy. It seems like an overreaction, but without any clear idea if this is going to be two quarters, three quarters or four quarters, I think people are really just panicking.

Judy Woodruff: And you were sharing with us that you have seen some forecasts that came out today, which contribute to the panic.

David Wessel: Absolutely. J.P. Morgan, a big bank on Wall Street, their economists predicted that the second quarter of the year will see a decline in the U.S. GDP at a 14 percent annual rate. We have never had a quarter that bad since we started keeping track of quarterly GDP in 1947. Now, I should note that they expect a bounce-back in the third quarter. I hope they're right. But we really don't know how long this is going to go on.

Judy Woodruff: Do they, do we have a sense at this point of which sectors are going to be the hardest-hit? I'm asking because we're hearing small businesses, big businesses laying off, shutting down, at least for the time being?

David Wessel: Well, when you basically tell everybody to stay home, it's not hard to imagine which businesses suffer first, hotels, terrorism, airlines, and stuff like that. But I think that it's going to be widespread. And one of the problems that the government's going to have is, every business is going to be able to say, we're hurting, and it's not our fault. So they're going to have to make some tough decisions about who to help, who not to help, how to get paid back, who gets a grant, and who gets a loan.

Judy Woodruff: So, what does it take at a time like this? And I realize what you're saying is, we have never seen anything like this. What does it take, though, at a time like this to give people some sense of reassurance, I mean, to know, there is a bottom here?

David Wessel: Well, I think one of the challenges of this event is that, by flattening the curve, by spreading out the virus, we're doing, on purpose, damage to the economy. And that's going to be very upsetting to people. I think people want leadership. They want confidence, if they get sick, they can get...be treated. And they want to be able to pay the rent, or pay the light bill and stuff like that. And that's why there's a lot of talk about providing cash to households, giving money to people who may be furloughed, strengthening the safety net, in order to make sure that the most vulnerable among us don't really get hit hard.

Judy Woodruff: How much does it help? I mean, this is, I think, part of your answer, that there is clarity in what the government, in the measures the government is taking?

David Wessel: I think it'll help a lot to get clarity. It's been very confusing. Some of the advice from the White House podium has been confusing, all this back and forth between the House and the Senate. So I think, as soon as we get some clear idea of what's going to be in this big bill, this trillion-dollar stimulus, people will begin to see, what's it going to mean to me? What are they going to do? But I think a second important thing is, I hope that they build into this bill a kind...a trigger, so that, if this is prolonged, the aid will automatically be extended. One of the things we learned during the Great Recession is, if you're not pessimistic enough, and the stimulus stops, then the economy takes a hit. So, we want this one to be automatic. If unemployment rises and stays high, we might have more checks to people or more loans to business.

Judy Woodruff: But it is it possible, finally, David, to be able to say how much it's going to take to reassure folks?

David Wessel: I don't think it is possible. I can't tell you how long this is going to go on, how long I'm going to be...have to be working at home. And that's true for everybody. So I think that the government needs to do things now both to alleviate the pain and to put some money in the system, so that, when the pandemic does recede, as it is apparently doing in China, the economy can get restarted again. But uncertainty is really hard for people to adjust to. And when people tell you, oh, this is going to be over by the summer, I think we have all learned that those people don't know what they're talking about. So it's not very comforting.

Judy Woodruff: One-point-three-trillion, and I hear you saying it could be bigger, bigger and bigger.

David Wessel: Absolutely.

Judy Woodruff: David Wessel, thank you very much.

David Wessel: You're welcome.

朱迪·伍德拉夫：新冠病毒带来的经济冲击还在加剧，与此同时，人们也在谈论范围巨大的经济援助。据报道，道琼斯工业指数今天再次大跌，下降了1300多点，降至19900点以下。纳斯达克指数下跌345点，标准普尔指数下跌131点。为了了解更多内容，我们今天再次邀请了大卫·韦塞尔，他是布鲁金斯学会哈钦斯中心财政金融政策方面的负责人。大卫，欢迎你参加今天的节目。所以，看起来是这样一个情况，无论国会做什么——我们也有听到丽莎关于这方面的报道——市场和投资人似乎都不放心。这是现在的情况不？

大卫·韦塞尔：没错。我想，现在市场和投资人的情况是：其一，他们意识到有很多不确定性。其二，他们不愿承担风险。没有人希望自己手上持有风险性的资产。他们觉得这种情况可能会持续一段时间，可能会对经济造成长期影响。这种情况看起来是有点应激过度了，但目前尚不清楚这是否会持续到第二季度、第三季度乃至第四季度，我觉得大家现在只是在恐慌。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：你跟我们分享道，你曾看到过一些人预测今天的情况，而这些预测也加剧了恐慌心态。

大卫·韦塞尔：是的。华尔街大型银行摩根大通的经济学人预测认为，今年的第二季度，美国的GDP会以14%的年率下降。自1947年我们每个季度追踪GDP以来，从未有哪个季度的指标这么差过。现在我还要提到的一点是：有人预计第三季度会有反弹。我希望他们的预测是正确的，但我们真地不知道这种情况会持续多久。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：我们是否知道此时此刻哪个行业受创最严重呢？我这样问是因为我们听说有一些小企业和大企业出现了裁员、关业的情况，至少目前是有这种情况的。

大卫·韦塞尔：如果我们告诉大家闭门不出的话，那很容易就能想到哪个行业首当其冲了——旅店、恐怖主义、航空行业等。但我觉得这种重创会越来越广泛。政府会遇到的一个问题是：每个行业都会说自己受创严重，也会说这不是他们的错。所以，他们要作出艰难的决定——帮谁、不帮谁、如何获得回报、给谁补给金、给谁贷款。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：那么，在这样的非常时期需要些什么呢？我注意到你也说了，咱们之前没遇到过这种阵仗。在这种时候要让人们放心，需要做些什么呢？有什么保底的做法吗？

大卫·韦塞尔：我觉得其中一个挑战是：在抚平曲线和病毒传播的同时，我们是在故意损害经济。这会让人们很慌。我想民众需要领导力，需要得到信息，如果他们生病了，能得到治疗。他们希望能付得起租金，希望能偿付不太繁重的账单等。因此，有很多人说要给家家户户发放现金，给休假的员工钱，加强安全网，从而确保大多数不堪一击的人不至于受创惨重。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：能缓解多少呢？我是说，这是你给的答案，那政府是否有明确采取过措施呢？

大卫·韦塞尔：我觉得这些措施很有助于让局势明朗。一直以来都很有困惑性。白宫的很多建议都让人困惑，而且众议院和参议院也反复不定。所以，我想一旦我们清楚地了解这个巨资法案（价值万亿美元的提振方案）的内容会有什么，人们就会开始明白这个法案对他们的意义何在，以及他们要做什么了。但我想另一个很重要的事情是：我希望法案中能加入一个自动触发的内容，也就是说：如果疫情延长了时间，那援助也会自动扩大。经济大萧条期间我们学会的一件事是：如果你不够积极，刺激就会停止，经济就会受到损伤。所以我们希望这个法案能够自动化。如果失业率居高不下，我们可能需要给普通人更多的支持，或者给企业更多的贷款。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：最后稳一点——大卫，你觉得要让大众放心需要作出多少努力呢？

大卫·韦塞尔：我觉得让大众彻底放心是不可能的。我无法判断当前的局势会持续多久，以及我还要在家远程办公多久。对所有人而言，这都是不确定的。但我觉得政府需要做些什么来缓解阵痛，也要将部分资金放入体系中。这样，等疫情减退之后，经济就能好转，就像中国一样。但不确定性是人们很难把握的。当有人告诉你夏天之前就能结束这局势的时候，我想我们都知道说这话的人根本不知道自己在说什么。所以这样的话并不能起到宽慰的作用。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：1.3万亿美元。我听你说起这个数字可以更大一些，再大一些。

大卫·韦塞尔：没错。

朱迪·伍德拉夫：谢谢你，大卫·韦塞尔。

大卫·韦塞尔：不客气。