2020年经济学人 美国新冠肺炎激增(3)（在线收听）

Given the rise in cases, however, it seems unlikely that the death rate will remain stagnant for much longer. Deaths for patients infected weeks ago will probably start to pile up. Some morgues in Arizona and Texas are running out of capacity and are already seeking refrigerated trucks, just as those in New York City did months ago. Uncontrolled community transmission among young people is likely to result in a spread in nursing homes, where a large share of fatalities occurs among the more vulnerable elderly. Should hospital capacity become strained, as appears to be the case in Houston, the quality of care could deteriorate and result in increased deaths as well.

然而，鉴于病例的增加，死亡率似乎不太可能再停滞太久。几周前感染的病人的死亡可能会使死亡率开始增加。亚利桑那州和德克萨斯州的一些停尸房已经没有容量了，他们已经开始寻找冷藏卡车，就像几个月前纽约市的停尸房的情况一样。在年轻人中不受控制的社区传播很可能导致疫情在养老院蔓延，在那里，死亡很大一部分是发生在较脆弱的老年人身上。如果医院的容量变得紧张，就像休斯顿的情况一样，医疗质量可能会恶化，并导致死亡人数增加。

Denial has not proved to be a particularly effective virus-suppression strategy. When polled by YouGov last week, a third of Americans who had voted for Mr Trump said they thought covid-19 was either a minor problem nationwide or not a problem at all. A recent Gallup poll showed that 94% of Democrats say they always or very often wear a mask when outside their homes compared with 46% of Republicans (and 68% of independents). To many voters, worry about the virus transmuted into coded disapproval of the president; maskwearing is seen as a talisman of deranged coastal liberalism.

否认并不是一种特别有效的病毒抑制策略。YouGov上周进行的民意调查显示，三分之一投票支持特朗普的美国人表示，他们认为新冠肺炎只是一个全国性的小问题，或者根本不是问题。最近的一项盖洛普民意测验显示，94%的民主党人说他们总是或经常离家时戴口罩，而共和党人的这一比例为46%（无党派人士为68%）。对许多选民来说，对病毒的担忧演变成了对总统的暗地里的不赞同；佩戴口罩被看作是混乱的沿海自由主义的护身符。

Mr Abbott, who while running for governor bragged about how many times he had sued Barack Obama’s administration, is facing a mild insurrection in Texas from counties over his imposition of a mask requirement. Localised control, which once appeared to be a compensating feature of the American system, may now be working against containment. Confusing back-and-forths between Mr Newsom and counties in California have hindered timelier action there too. These are co-ordination problems that the federal government ought to solve. But throughout the crisis the White House has not seemed interested. Once again, states and cities will probably have to do the hard work alone.

阿博特在竞选州长时吹嘘自己曾多次起诉巴拉克奥巴马政府，但由于他强制要求戴口罩，德克萨斯州正面临一场来自各县的温和起义。局部控制曾一度被认为是美国体系的一个补偿特征，现在可能不利于遏制疫情。纽森和加州各县之间的混乱也阻碍了美国采取更及时的行动。这些都是联邦政府应该解决的协调方面的问题。但在整个危机中，白宫似乎并不感兴趣。各州和各城市可能不得不再次独自完成这项艰巨的工作。