PBS高端访谈:美国总统初选即将拉开序幕（在线收听）

 JUDY WOODRUFF: A few key states will be holdingprimary elections this week, while the search for JoeBiden's running mate picks up steam. To look intothis and more, I'm joined by our Politics Mondayteam, Amy Walter, the national editor of The CookPolitical Report and the host of the podcast PoliticsWith Amy Walter, and Tamara Keith of NPR. She alsoco-hosts the NPR Politics Podcast. Hello to both of you. So, we heard William Brangham a fewminutes ago speak about the requests that are going out for absentee ballots in a number ofstates for these August primaries. Amy, tomorrow primaries in Arizona, Michigan, Washingtonstate, Missouri, Kansas, and then Thursday in Tennessee. You have been focused particularly onthe Kansas Senate Republican primary. Tell us what you're looking at.

朱迪·伍德乐夫：本周美国的几个关键州将进行总统初选，同时乔·拜登也在加紧寻找竞选伙伴。为了进一步了解情况，我和“周一政治”团队的成员进行了连线，即库克政治报告的全国编辑、艾米·沃尔特的播客主持人艾米·沃尔特，以及美国国家公共电台(NPR)的塔玛拉·基思，她还共同主持了NPR政治播客。你们好，几分钟前，我们听到威廉·布朗汉姆谈到在八月份的初选中许多州都要求进行缺席选票。艾米，明天是亚利桑那州、密歇根州、华盛顿州、密苏里州、堪萨斯州的初选，之后周四是田纳西州。你一直特别关注堪萨斯州参议院共和党的初选，跟我们说说你关注的情况。

AMY WALTER, The Cook Political Report: Right. Well, Judy, Kansas isn't normallyconsidered a battleground state, either at the presidential or the Senate level. A Democrathasn't won a Senate race in Kansas since the 1930s. But a lot of Republicans are worried thatthat streak might just end and Democrats could find themselves on top because of what theysee as a very contentious primary, with one candidate in particular that many Republicansare worried about. And that is the former secretary of state, Kris Kobach. Now, Kobach was thegubernatorial nominee for Republicans in 2018. He was endorsed by Donald Trump. He's alsoan immigration hard-liner, like Donald Trump. And the fact that he lost to a Democrat inKansas spooked a lot of Republicans, who say, we can't take that kind of risk now. I still thinkKansas is a tough place for Democrats to win, even in what is shaping up to be a better year forDemocrats across the country. But I think what the concern that Republicans have aboutKansas really speaks to is the reality of the Senate playing field getting bigger and bigger andbigger, and not in a good way for Republicans, in a better way for Democrats. Republicans arecompletely on defense in places that they didn't think they were going to have to be ondefense, not just Kansas, but states like Iowa and Georgia. And so to have to go in, theoretically spend money and effort, to win in a state that should be, in normal times, a slamdunk, that has to be frustrating for them.

艾米·沃尔特，库克政治报道：是的，嗯，朱迪，无论从总统层面还是从参议院层面，大家通常不认为堪萨斯州是战场州。自上世纪30年代以来，还没有过一位民主党人赢得堪萨斯州的参议院选举，然而很多共和党人担心这种运气可能会就此结束。民主党人可能会发现自己处于领先地位，因为他们认为初选的争议非常大，其中有一位候选人是许多共和党人特别担心的，即前国务卿克里斯·科巴赫。科巴赫曾是2018年共和党的州长提名人，也曾得到过唐纳德·特朗普的支持。和唐纳德·特朗普一样，他也是移民问题的强硬派。然而，他在堪萨斯州输给了一位民主党人，这一事实吓坏了很多共和党人。他们说：我们现在不能冒这种风险。我仍然认为，民主党人难以在堪萨斯取胜，即使今年对于全国各地的民主党人来说都更有利，但我仍然认为共和党人对堪萨斯的担忧真正表现在参议院的战场变得越来越大这一事实，这对共和党人来说不是什么好事，而对民主党人来说却是好事。共和党人在一些他们本认为不需要防守的地方处于紧密防守状态，不仅在堪萨斯州，还有爱荷华州和乔治亚州。所以从理论上讲，他们必须投入金钱和精力去赢得一个在正常情况下本该轻而易举赢得的胜利，这对他们来说无疑令人沮丧。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Has to be frustrating. And, Tam, widen the aperture for us from theSenate to the presidential race. Speaking about being on the defensive, the Trump campaignlast week took down its ads, said they were going dark and they were going to retool. They'reout with a somewhat new message. What are they saying? What was this change all about?

朱迪·伍德乐夫：肯定令人沮丧。另外，塔玛，讲完参议院，再跟我们讲一下总统竞选吧。在谈到处于守势时，特朗普的竞选团队上周撤下了自己的广告，称这些广告将消失并进行更新。广告将会有新的内容，内容是什么呢？又为何会发生这种变化？

TAMARA KEITH, National Public Radio: Yes, so their new message is not that different fromtheir old message, though the ads have a slightly different look. What they're alleging is thatJoe Biden is an empty vessel, or a Trojan horse, or any number of other things for radicalleftist Democrats and people who…at the president's rally in Tulsa, he talked about Joe Biden. He delivered some attack lines on Joe Biden. And they didn't really get the crowd that excited. And then the president talked about the Squad or Nancy Pelosi, and the crowd was much moreanimated. So, in some ways, the Trump's campaign strategy is the same strategy it wasmonths ago, which is to try to tie Joe Biden, who has been known as a moderate, to moreliberal progressive sides of the Democratic Party. Now, they had pulled out all their ads, asyou say. Now they're back up. And this speaks to the map that Amy was talking about. They areback up running ads in Arizona, Florida, North Carolina, and Georgia. They have bought about $6 million in ads for this week. Those are states that President Trump won last time, and likerelatively easily.

国家公共广播电台塔玛拉·基思：是的，这些新广告和旧广告虽然在画面上略有不同，但在内容上却大同小异。他们称乔·拜登是一艘空船，或者特洛伊木马，或者其他任何激进的左翼民主党人的东西。此外，在塔尔萨的总统集会上，他谈到了乔·拜登，他对拜登发表了一些攻击性的言论。不过观众并没有兴奋起来，之后总统谈到了球队和南希·佩洛西，观众才开始变得活跃。所以，在某些方面，特朗普的竞选策略和几个月前一样，就是试图把温和派的乔·拜登和民主党中更自由、更进步的一方联系起来，就像你说的，他们撤掉了所有的广告，现在又出了新的广告，这和艾米说的规划是一致的。他们目前正在亚利桑那州、佛罗里达州、北卡罗来纳州和乔治亚州重新投放广告，本周他们已经购买了约600万美元的广告，这些州都是特朗普上次获胜的州，所以相对轻松。

JUDY WOODRUFF: And I want to talk some more about this, but I got to ask you both aboutwhat's going on in the Biden campaign. Amy, a lot of focus right now on the vice presidentialpick. At one point, they had said we're going to hear this week. Now they're saying it's going tobe next week. What are you hearing? What do you make of the fact that there are still anumber of women…he said it's going to be a woman…out there?

朱迪·伍德乐夫：虽然我还想继续谈论这个问题，不过我想先问一下你们拜登竞选的情况。艾米，大家现在都在关注副总统人选。之前他们说这周就会有消息出来，而现在又说要等到下周，你这边有什么消息吗？对于(竞选伙伴)还会是一些“女性”的说法你怎么看，他说过是女性……

AMY WALTER: Right.

艾米·沃尔特：没错。

JUDY WOODRUFF: A lot of speculation about which one.

朱迪·伍德乐夫：大家都在猜测是谁。

AMY WALTER: You know, Judy, in sort of the last, I don't know, 10 or 20 years, it's beenpretty common for the challenger candidates or for candidates who aren't the incumbents toannounce their vice presidential pick basically the weekend before the convention. So thatwouldn't be really out of step for Joe Biden to do the same thing. We have got about two weeksbefore the Democrats' convention. But Joe Biden did say a number of times that he thoughthe would have his decision by this moment in time. I don't know that it does him much goodto roll this out right now, as opposed to waiting a little while longer. I know there's someconcerns among Democrats that there's a lot of elbowing going on between the camps of someof the women who are named as…who have been named as potential vice presidentialcandidates, but I don't really think that breaks through to most voters. I do think what isimportant for Joe Biden, he says, people around him say, is somebody he has chemistry with, somebody that he can really meld with, in the way, he says, he was able to join with PresidentObama. And that was very important to him and it was very important to his relationship withthe president. At the same time, I think, for voters, what they are probably most concernedabout is whether the person that Joe Biden picks is qualified to step in if Joe Biden is not ableto complete his term. This is the oldest person we would elect president of the United States. Having somebody in the number two slot who voters can look at and say, you know what, I cansee that person slip…you know, taking that president's job, if need be, is going to be the moreimportant thing when we're thinking about it politically.

艾米·沃尔特：你知道，朱迪，在过去的10年或者20年里，对于挑战者候选人或者不是现任总统的候选人来说，在大会前的周末才宣布他们的副总统人选是很常见的。所以，乔·拜登做同样的事情并不会不太合拍。距离民主党全国代表大会还有两周的时间，而乔·拜登确实曾多次表示他会届时做出决定。现在说出来我觉得确实没有什么好处，还不如再等一段时间。我知道民主党人会担心被提名为可能的副总统候选人的女性阵营之间会有很多互相推搡的情况，但我并不认为这能赢得大多数选民的支持。我认为对乔·拜登来说重要的是，他这么说，他周围的人也这么说，就是他能和别人产生化学反应，能真正融合在一起，就像他能和奥巴马总统走到一起一样，这点对他来说非常重要，这对他和总统的关系也非常重要。同时，我觉得选民最关心的可能是如果拜登不能完成任期，那么拜登挑选的人选是否有资格接任，因为他会是我们选出来的年龄最大的美国总统。如果有人能充当二把手，那么选民就可以看着说：你知道吗，我知道那位不行了……如果有必要的话，接替总统的职位将是我们从政治角度考虑的更重要的事情。

JUDY WOODRUFF: So, Tam, there's always a lot of focus on this, a lot of guessing, of course, going on. How much is really riding, though, on who he chooses?

朱迪·伍德乐夫：所以，塔玛，大家都在关注此事，也有很多猜测，当然，请继续，他会依据什么来选出这个人呢？

TAMARA KEITH: Yes, Judy, this is the season of speculation. It is the season of speculationthat comes around every four years, staking out driveways and backyards. And then, in the end, you find out who the vice presidential pick is, and not much changes, because, while a vicepresidential pick can sometimes do harm, it rarely does all that much good. The vice presidentis the vice president. Now, as Amy says, there is a significance in this case, or in many othercases. You might think of John McCain, for instance, was an older candidate as well, where thevice presidential pick was important. Being seen as qualified was important. And that becamea factor in that race. And so there are potential negatives, but the positives aren't thatpositive.

塔玛拉·基思：是的，朱迪，现在还是猜测季，每四年一度的猜测季，不管是车道上还是后院里到处都有人在议论。之后，到最后你会知道副总统人选是谁，不会和猜测有太大出入。因为，虽然副总统人选有时会带来伤害，但很少会带来那么多好处，副总统就是副总统。现在，正如艾米所说，在这种情况或者在许多其他情况下有重要意义。举个例子，你可能会想到约翰·麦凯恩，他也是大龄候选人，所以副总统的选择就会变得很重要，被视为有资格是很重要的，这就成了竞选的一个因素。所以存在潜在的消极因素，而积极因素并没有起到太大的作用。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Wow. Well, we will…that will not stop us from doing a whole lot of guessingand talking about this between now and when we know the name.

朱迪·伍德乐夫：哇，不过这并不能阻止我们从现在开始到知道这个名字之前进行大量的猜测和讨论。

JUDY WOODRUFF: Tamara Keith, Amy Walter, thank you both.

朱迪·伍德乐夫：塔玛拉·基思，艾米·沃尔特，谢谢你们。

TAMARA KEITH: You're welcome.

塔玛拉·基思：不客气。

AMY WALTER: You're welcome.

艾米：不客气。