时代周刊:新冠疫情对全球化的冲击（在线收听）

The Coronavirus' Blow to Globalization

新冠疫情对全球化的冲击

By Ian Bremmer

文/伊恩·布莱默

As Americans try to decide whether they’re too worried about coronavirus or not worried enough, fears of recession have shifted Washington into action.

尽管美国尚在犹豫自己对新冠病毒的担忧是否太过，又或者是否不足，对经济衰退的担忧却已经点燃了华盛顿的行动。

Congress appears poised to approve billions of dollars in emergency funding.

国会似已准备好投放数十亿美元的应急基金。

On March 3, the Federal Reserve chipped in with an emergency interest-rate cut of half a percentage point, the biggest such cut since the 2008 financial crisis.

3月3日，美联储紧急降息0.5个百分点，这也是2008年金融危机以来规模最大的一次降息。

The Fed’s hope is to limit economic damage inflicted by the virus by boosting business confidence and household spending,

美联储此举意在提振企业信心和家庭支出，抑制病毒造成的经济损失，

but the effect is to remind us that already historically low rates leave the Fed with limited ammunition.

但其成效也在提醒我们，鉴于利率原本就已处于历史低位，此番降息美联储的施展空间并不很大。

It’s just one more source of anxiety about the virus.

到头来不过是进一步加剧了人们对病毒的担忧而已。

In reality, it is those who live in parts of the world where health systems are less developed that have greatest cause for concern–

事实上，生活在世界上医疗卫生体系欠发达地区的人群才是最值得担忧的——

for both their personal health and the resilience of their economies.

不仅是他们的个人健康，还有他们经济的抗危机能力。

The first week of March saw the first confirmed coronavirus case in sub-Saharan Africa.

3月刚迈入第一周，非洲撒哈拉以南地区就出现了首例新冠肺炎确诊病例。

In any pandemic, the worst-case scenario involves its spread into developing-world cities where huge numbers of people live,

就任何一次大流行而言，最糟糕的情况都是疫情蔓延到发展中国家的城市，因为这些城市人口众多，

health care facilities are poor and millions lack the money to afford whatever care is available.

医疗设施又较落后，加之大部分人根本就没钱支付任何可获取的医疗服务的费用。

There are also larger emerging-market countries that will take a huge economic hit as a result of lost tourism.

此外，一些较大的新兴市场国家的经济也会因为旅游业的损失遭受重创。

But the impact of canceled travel would be much greater in Saudi Arabia,

然而，沙特受旅游订单取消的影响要比其他国家严重得多，

where the kingdom’s first confirmed coronavirus case has closed Islam’s holiest sites to foreigners.

出现首例新冠肺炎确诊病例后，该国已经停止对外国人口开放伊斯兰最神圣的几处宗教圣地。

If Saudi authorities are forced to cancel the hajj,

如果沙特当局迫于无奈只能取消麦加朝圣——

the annual pilgrimage of millions of Muslims to visit these sites, scheduled to begin in July, the impact would be dramatic.

每年7月都会有数百万穆斯林前往麦加的圣地朝圣，其影响恐十分震撼。

Other countries that depend on tourism revenue–particularly in Southeast Asia and Latin America–will face tough losses.

同样依赖旅游收入的其他国家——尤其是东南亚和拉丁美洲的国家——也即将面临严重损失。

Even in the U.S., where this crisis has only begun to make an impact, the response may fall far short.

即便是（身为发达国家的）美国，该国疫情才刚开始发力，应对措施仍有可能远远不够。

There are some shortages of crucial drugs and medical equipment, in part because China remains a critical part of supply chains.

应对疫情的关键药品和医疗设备都存在一定短缺，部分原因在于中国仍是这些资源供应链的关键一环。

Another worry: coronavirus has been swallowed into election-year politics.

另一个令人担忧的问题是：新冠病毒已经卷入选举年的政治斗争。

President Trump, anxious to protect the stock-market gains that he believes will boost his chances of re-election,

特朗普急于保护股市的利益，因他认为后者能够加大他连任的机会，

has argued that Democrats are exaggerating the coronavirus threat.

他声称，民主党人夸大了新冠病毒的威胁。

Critics of the President warn that Trump will lean heavily on the Fed for more cuts,

批评人士告诫称，特朗普还会向美联储进一步降息大力倾斜，

less for the sake of U.S. economic resilience than for the President’s political fortunes.

此举与其说是为了美国经济的反弹，倒不如说是为了总统自己的政治前程。

In coming years, the coronavirus outbreak may be remembered as a milestone moment on the road toward the end of the first phase of globalization.

接下来几年，此次新冠疫情的爆发或将化为全球化第一阶段收尾期间的一个里程碑时刻映入人们的脑海。

Over the past few decades, markets have opened, supply chains have gone global, middle classes have emerged, and new connections have been made.

过去的几十年里，市场开放了，供应链走向了全球化，中产阶级次第出现，新的联系已经建立起来。

More recently, a backlash against the increasingly free flow of information, ideas, money, jobs and people has created extraordinary political pressures.

近来，对信息、思想、资金、就业和人员日益自由流动的强烈反冲激发出了极大的政治压力。

The result has been tightened immigration rules, new barriers to trade and investment,

结果便是移民政策收紧，贸易投资陷入新的壁垒，

a shortening of supply chains, a technological decoupling and a new emphasis on country-first politics.

供应链缩短，技术脱钩，“国家第一”的理念再次得到重视。

Coronavirus has already forced travel restrictions, accusations between governments and a series of xenophobic attacks in multiple countries.

新冠病毒已经催生出了出行限制，政府之间的互相指责，多个国家都已爆发的一系列仇外袭击事件等一系列问题。

Depending on the level of human and economic damage this virus inflicts around the world,

根据其对世界各地的人民和经济造成的损失的严重程度，

coronavirus may one day be considered an important turning point for the entire global economy.

新冠病毒或有一天会被视为整个全球经济进程中的一个重要转折点。