新闻周刊:美国专家预测,美伊战争将以双方的灾难告终(1)（在线收听）

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来源于《世界》版块

'VERY STUPID AND COSTLY' U.S.-IRAN WAR WOULD END IN DISASTER FOR BOTH SIDES, EXPERTS PREDICT

“非常愚蠢且昂贵”美国专家预测，美伊战争将以双方的灾难告终

BY DAVID BRENNAN

作者：大卫·布伦南

As tensions rose between the U.S. and Iran this week, it was reported that the White House had considered a revised military plan to deploy 120,000 American troops to the Middle East in the event of an Iranian attack or acceleration of the country's nuclear program.

本周，随着美国和伊朗之间的紧张局势加剧，据报道，白宫曾考虑修改一项军事计划，在伊朗发动袭击或加速该国核计划的情况下，向中东部署12万名美国士兵。

President Donald Trump is reportedly still hoping for a diplomatic solution to the face-off, though some of his most senior advisers are apparently not of the same mind. An aircraft carrier strike group has been sent to the Arabian Sea, with B-52 bombers and a Patriot missile system also deployed to the region.

据报道，美国总统唐纳德·特朗普仍希望通过外交途径解决这场对峙，尽管他的一些最资深顾问显然意见不一。一艘航空母舰战斗群已被派往阿拉伯海，B-52轰炸机和一套爱国者导弹系统也部署在该地区。

Both Iranian and American officials have said they do not seek war. But as tensions rise and in the absence of effective dialogue, the risk of a confrontation—whether intentional or accidental—increases.

伊朗和美国官员都表示他们不想挑起战争。但是，随着紧张局势加剧，在缺乏有效对话的情况下，无论是有意还是无意的对抗风险都在增加。

On Thursday, Democratic presidential candidate and Hawaii Congresswoman Tulsi Gabbard suggested Trump and National Security Adviser John Bolton are "on the brink of launching us into a very stupid and costly war with Iran." She urged supporters "to join her in sending a strong message to President Trump: The US must NOT go to war with Iran."

周四，民主党总统候选人、夏威夷国会女议员图尔西·加巴德暗示，特朗普和国家安全顾问约翰·博尔顿“即将把我们推入一场非常愚蠢、代价高昂的与伊朗的战争”。 她敦促支持者“和她一起向特朗普总统发出一个强有力的信息:美国不能与伊朗开战。”

Chas Freeman—a former senior U.S. diplomat and now a senior fellow at Brown University's Watson Institute for International and Public Affairs—told Newsweek any war "will not arise by accident or be deliberately initiated by Iran."

查斯·弗里曼曾任美国高级外交官，现为布朗大学沃森国际与公共事务研究所高级研究员，他在接受《新闻周刊》采访时表示，任何战争“都不会由伊朗意外挑起或故意挑起”。

The Washington Post reported Wednesday that Trump is becoming frustrated with aides like Bolton, whose hawkish approach to the current face-off risks accelerating military preparation at the cost of diplomacy.

《华盛顿邮报》周三报道称，特朗普对博尔顿这样的助手感到失望，他对当前对峙的强硬态度可能会以外交为代价加快军事准备。

A conflict "is unlikely to be launched by President Trump, despite his habit of posturing as a tough guy," Freeman added. "It will come about because people in president Trump's entourage responsive to Israeli arguments and wishing to ingratiate themselves with Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates manage to contrive a casus belli and produce the war they have been looking for."

弗里曼补充说，冲突“不太可能由特朗普总统发起，尽管他惯于摆出强硬的姿态”。“之所以会出现这种情况，是因为特朗普总统的随行人员对以色列的观点做出了回应，希望讨好沙特阿拉伯和阿拉伯联合酋长国，他们设法策划了一场战争，并制造了他们一直在寻找的战争。”