新闻周刊:非洲第一个超级大国的到来比你想象的要快(9)（在线收听）

But Nigeria has a secret weapon: democracy. Academics Daron Acemoglu and James Robinson, authors of Why Nations Fail, argue that authoritarian states that free up their economies get a short-term boost, but it doesn't last because sustained success requires "inclusive capitalism" and democracy. That's what is happening in China now. A wave of autocratic leaders post-Deng hasn't been able to resist reasserting control of the economy and reversing many of his reforms. As they have done so, growth has cooled.

但尼日利亚有一个秘密武器：民主。学者达龙·阿西莫格鲁和詹姆斯·罗宾逊是《为什么国家会失败》的作者，他们认为解放经济的专制国家得到了短期的提振，但它不会持久，因为持续的成功需要“包容的资本主义”和民主。这就是正在发生的事情。改革后的一波专制领导人已经无法抗拒重新控制经济，无法逆转许多改革。在他们这样做的同时，经济增长已经降温。

Nigeria's democracy may be imperfect, but it's democracy. Since the end of military rule in 1999, Nigeria has had five elections of increasing validity. In 2015, an opposition candidate won and came to power peacefully—no small achievement in sub-Saharan Africa. An entire generation of Nigerians has no memory of un-democratic government. It has a mostly free press and a vibrant civil society. Successive civilian governments have moved to protect democracy by reducing what has traditionally been the greatest threat: the military. They have deliberately coup-proofed the country by weakening the army, retiring its senior leaders and repositioning it as an internal security force that is scattered across the country. According to GlobalFirePower.com, the Nigerian army now ranks 44th out of 137 countries, which puts it somewhere between Peru and Denmark, and well behind South Africa.

尼日利亚的民主也许不完美，但毕竟是民主。自1999年军事统治结束以来，尼日利亚已经举行了五次日益有效的选举。2015年，一名反对派候选人赢得大选，并以和平的方式上台执政，这在撒哈拉以南的非洲地区取得了不小的成就。整整一代尼日利亚人都没有不民主政府的记忆。尼日利亚拥有一个基本自由的媒体和一个充满活力的公民社会。历届文官政府都采取行动保护民主，减少了历来最大的威胁：军队。他们故意削弱军队，让高级领导人退休，并将其重新定位为分散在全国各地的国内安全部队，以此来保护国家。根据GlobalFirePower.com的数据，尼日利亚军队在137个国家中排名第44位，位于秘鲁和丹麦之间，远远落后于南非。

Investors aren't moving into Nigeria yet, but they're watching. The talk used to be about the economic potential of the BRICS countries—Brazil, Russia, India, China and South Africa. Now it's MINT—Mexico, Indonesia, Nigeria and Turkey.

投资者还没有进入尼日利亚，但他们正在观望。过去，投资者谈论的是金砖国家(巴西、俄罗斯、印度、中国和南非)的经济潜力。现在是MINT——墨西哥，印度尼西亚，尼日利亚和土耳其。

"Right now, Nigeria is seen as just too hard, but there's a wall of money waiting to come in if it gets it right," Aiyesimoju says. According to Orji, Nigeria is "just a few tweaks away" from being an attractive place for investors. "Look at South Korea," he says. "All it took was changing one thing—the landholding law." (That change allowed larger farms, which enabled farmers to invest in mechanization.)

“现在，尼日利亚被认为是太困难了，但如果做对了，就会有一大堆钱等着进来，”埃耶西莫朱表示。根据奥尔吉的说法，尼日利亚离成为一个对投资者有吸引力的地方“只有几步之遥”。“看看韩国，”他说。“只需要改变一件事——土地持有法。”(这一变化使规模更大的农场得以存在，从而使农民能够投资于机械化。)