英国卫报:你还在相信统计数据吗?(14)（在线收听）

What is most politically significant about this shift from a logic of statistics to one of data is how comfortably it sits with the rise of populism. Populist leaders can heap scorn upon traditional experts, such as economists and pollsters, while trusting in a different form of numerical analysis altogether. Such politicians rely on a new, less visible elite, who seek out patterns from vast data banks, but rarely make any public pronouncements, let alone publish any evidence. These data analysts are often physicists or mathematicians, whose skills are not developed for the study of society at all. This, for example, is the worldview propagated by Dominic Cummings, former adviser to Michael Gove and campaign director of Vote Leave. "Physics, mathematics and computer science are domains in which there are real experts, unlike macro-economic forecasting," Cummings has argued.

这种从统计逻辑向数据逻辑的转变最具政治意义的地方在于：它和民粹主义的崛起相去甚远。民粹主义领导人可以对经济学家和民意调查专家等传统专家嗤之以鼻，却完全相信另一种形式的数字分析。这些政客依赖于一个新的、不那么引人注目的精英阶层，他们从庞大的数据库中寻找规律，但很少发表公开声明，更不用说发布什么证据了。这些数据分析师通常是物理学家或数学家，他们的技能根本不适合用来研究社会。例如，下面是迈克尔·戈夫的前顾问、“脱欧”运动负责人多米尼克·卡明斯所宣扬的世界观，他认为：物理、数学和计算机科学领域有真正的专家，宏观经济预测领域则没有。”

Figures close to Donald Trump, such as his chief strategist Steve Bannon and the Silicon Valley billionaire Peter Thiel, are closely acquainted with cutting-edge data analytics techniques, via companies such as Cambridge Analytica, on whose board Bannon sits. During the presidential election campaign, Cambridge Analytica drew on various data sources to develop psychological profiles of millions of Americans, which it then used to help Trump target voters with tailored messaging.

和唐纳德·特朗普关系密切的人物，比如他的首席策略师史蒂夫·班农和硅谷亿万富翁彼得·蒂尔，都通过班农担任董事会成员的剑桥分析公司等公司来熟知尖端的数据分析技术。在总统竞选期间，剑桥分析公司利用各种数据来源开发了数百万美国人的心理档案，然后利用这些资料帮助特朗普针对选民定制信息。

This ability to develop and refine psychological insights across large populations is one of the most innovative and controversial features of the new data analysis. As techniques of "sentiment analysis", which detect the mood of large numbers of people by tracking indicators such as word usage on social media, become incorporated into political campaigns, the emotional allure of figures such as Trump will become amenable to scientific scrutiny. In a world where the political feelings of the general public are becoming this traceable, who needs pollsters?

这种在大量人群中发展和完善心理学洞察力的能力是新数据分析最具创新性和争议性的特征之一。“情绪分析”技术通过追踪社交媒体上的用词等指标来探测大量人群的情绪，随着“情绪分析”技术被纳入政治竞选，像特朗普这样的人物的情感诱惑将会受到科学的审视。在一个公众的政治情绪变得如此可追踪的世界里，谁还需要民意测验专家呢？