美国国家公共电台 NPR 美联储维持利率在近零水平不变 预测2023年将加息（在线收听）

Despite the recent jump in consumer prices, the Federal Reserve is not taking its foot off the gas.

尽管最近消费价格大幅上涨，但美联储并未松懈。

The central bank said today it's keeping interest rates near zero in an effort to encourage the economy's rebound from the pandemic recession.

美国央行（指美联储）今天表示，将利率维持在接近零的水平，以鼓励经济从大规模衰退中复苏。

The Fed has to weigh competing demands to get people back to work while also trying to keep a lid on prices,

美联储必须权衡各种相互冲突的需求，既要让人们重返工作岗位，也要努力控制物价，

which are climbing at the fastest pace in more than a dozen years.

而目前物价正以十多年来最快的速度攀升。

NPR's Scott Horsley joins us now. Hi, Scott.

NPR新闻的斯科特·霍斯利现在将和我们连线。你好，斯科特。

Good afternoon, Ari.

下午好，阿里。

The Fed is projecting somewhat higher inflation this year, but it doesn't seem spooked by that. Why not?

美联储预测今年的通胀率会有所上升，但它似乎并未因此感到紧张。为什么？

Yeah, the Fed raised its forecast for inflation to 3.4% this year.

没错，美联储将今年的通胀预期提高到了3.4%。

That's a full point higher than what officials were projecting just three months ago, and it's well above the Fed's long-term target of 2%.

这比官员三个月前的预测高出了整整一个百分点，同时也远高于美联储2%的长期目标。

But policymakers at the central bank still think this jump in inflation is temporary,

但央行的政策制定者仍然认为，通胀率的飙升是暂时的，

driven by surging demand as people come out of lockdown and the challenges that businesses are facing in keeping up with that demand.

原因是人们走出封锁后需求激增，而且企业在跟上这种需求方面面临着挑战。

By next year, the Fed expects to see inflation settle back down to just over 2%, although Fed Chairman Jerome Powell acknowledges there's no guarantee.

美联储预计明年的通胀率将回落至略高于2%的水平，不过美联储主席杰罗姆·鲍威尔承认，他们并不能保证这一预测会成真。

Forecasters have a lot to be humble about. It's a highly uncertain business. And we're very much attuned to the risks and watching the data carefully.

预测者有很多要谦虚的地方。这是一件非常不确定的事情。我们非常了解风险，也在仔细观察数据。

Powell did mention the price of lumber, which has already started to come down from its record high last month.

鲍威尔确实提到了木材的价格，该价格目前已从上个月的最高纪录开始下降。

And he expects to see something similar happened with other pricey items, like used cars, as the various bottlenecks are resolved in the months to come.

他预计，随着各种瓶颈问题在未来几个月得到解决，二手车等其他昂贵商品的价格也会陆续开始下降。

Some lawmakers seem skeptical that inflation is a passing fad. What are they saying?

一些议员似乎对通胀只是暂时情况持怀疑态度。他们有何表态？

Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley brought this up during a Senate hearing today.

爱荷华州共和党人查克·格拉斯利今天在参议院听证会上提出了这个问题。

He's worried that officials, including in the Biden administration, are being too nonchalant about rising prices.

他担心包括拜登政府在内的官员对物价上涨过于漠不关心。

After all, the consumer price index jumped 5% over the last 12 months.

毕竟，消费者物价指数在过去12个月里上涨了5%。

As we know from the 1970s, once inflation takes off, getting it back under control can require very painful measures. The early 1980s proved that.

从上世纪70年代开始，我们就知道，一旦通货膨胀开始，要想控制住它，可能需要采取非常痛苦的措施。上世纪80年代初的情况已经证明了这一点。

Grassley was quizzing Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen there, and she agreed nobody wants to go back to the bad, old days of the '70s,

格拉斯利在听证会上询问了财政部长珍妮特·耶伦，她同意没有人愿意回到70年代那种糟糕的旧时代，

when inflation hit double digits, and the Fed had to slam the brakes on the economy to get prices under control.

当时通胀率达到两位数，美联储不得不对经济踩下紧急刹车，以控制物价。

One thing officials think has changed since then is that people have now had decades to get used to stable prices,

官员认为，那之后发生变化的一件事是，人们现在有几十年的时间来适应稳定的物价，

and so that expectation of stability is kind of baked in.

因此稳定预期有些过时。

But both the Fed and the White House say they are on guard for any change in expectations that might threaten that.

但美联储和白宫都表示，他们对可能威胁到这一点的预期变化保持警惕。

The Fed is pursuing its easy-money policies in hopes of getting back to full employment more quickly. Where do they see the job market going?

美联储将推行宽松的货币政策，希望能更快地恢复充分就业。他们认为就业市场将走向何方？

Job growth over the last couple of months has been slower than a lot of forecasters were expecting.

过去几个月，就业增长速度比许多预测者预期的要慢。

There are a record number of job openings, but employers just aren't hiring as fast as they would like.

职位空缺数量创下纪录，但这是因为雇主的招聘速度并未达到预期。

Powell says he does expect to get back to a strong labor market but not overnight.

鲍威尔表示，他确实希望恢复强劲的劳动力市场，但不可能一蹴而就。

Most of the act of sort of going back to one's old job, that's kind of already happened.

大部分类似于回到原来的工作岗位的行为，都已经发生。

So this is a question of people finding a new job, and that's just a process that takes longer. There may be something of a speed limit.

所以这是人们寻找新工作的问题，这只是一个需要更长时间的过程。可能会有点限速。

Powell pointed to a variety of factors that might be keeping people from going back to work.

鲍威尔指出了可能阻碍人们重返工作岗位的各种因素。

Some people are afraid of the virus still. Some, of course, have child care responsibilities.

有些人仍然害怕病毒。当然，有些人有照顾孩子的责任。

And some are making more from enhanced unemployment benefits than they might at a low-paying job.

还有人所领的失业救济金要多于他们在低收入工作中的收入。

Powell does expect to see a pickup in hiring as more people get vaccinated, as schools reopen and as those extra benefits phase out.

鲍威尔预计，随着越来越多的人接种疫苗，学校重新开学，以及这些额外福利逐步取消，招聘人数会有所增加。

Some of the states are already phasing them out.

有些州已开始逐步取消福利政策。

And just briefly — the Fed, while it's keeping interest rates low for now, is also keeping the door open to an earlier rate hike in the past. What's that about?

请简单回答一下，美联储目前在保持低利率的同时，也在为提前加息敞开大门。这是怎么回事？

Yeah, a majority of the Fed's rate-setting committee now expects to see interest rates rising in 2023. That's a change from three months ago.

没错，美联储利率制定委员会的大多数成员现在都预计2023年利率会上升，这与三个月前有所不同。

And it reflects growing optimism about the recovery.

这也反映出人们对经济复苏越来越乐观。

One sign of that — the Fed dropped language in its statement today about the economic toll of the pandemic.

其中一个迹象是，美联储在今天的声明中删掉了疫情造成经济损失这种措辞。

Powell says we're not out of the woods yet, but he says it is great to see people out living their lives again.

鲍威尔表示，我们还没有走出困境，但他同时表示，看到人们重新过上自己的生活真是太好了。

NPR's Scott Horsley, thanks a lot.

以上是NPR新闻的斯科特·霍斯利带来的报道，非常谢谢你。

You're welcome.

不客气。