美国国家公共电台 NPR 重磅气候变化报告公布 极端天气将更加严峻（在线收听）

The world's top climate scientists have just released a landmark warning about the future of the planet.

世界顶尖气候科学家刚刚就地球的未来发出重大警告。

The headline — burning fossil fuels is already heating up the planet faster than anything the world has seen in 2,000 years.

头条新闻——2000年以来，燃烧化石燃料使地球升温的速度比其他任何行为都要快。

And it will certainly get much worse unless people around the world make some big changes.

除非世界各地的人们做出重大改变，否则情况肯定会变得更糟。

Joining us now to talk about all this is NPR's Dan Charles. Hey, Dan.

下面NPR新闻的丹·查尔斯将和我们进行详细讨论。你好，丹。

Hi, Ailsa.

你好，艾尔莎。

All right. So we've been hearing for quite some time now about how bad climate change is. So why is this report in particular getting so much attention?

好。一段时间以来，我们一直都有听说气候变化的我程度有多糟糕。那为何这份报告会受到尤其多的关注？

This is the group that defines the scientific consensus. It's called the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, or IPCC.

发布这份报告的是定义科学共识的机构。名为政府间气候变化专门委员会（简称IPCC）。

Hundreds of scientists work on these reports. They take years to produce. Governments have to sign off on them.

数百名科学家共同撰写了这些报告。用时数年才得以完成。各国政府必须签署这些报告。

And this one is just the latest big reassessment of the climate that the IPCC has done, but it's the first one it's done in eight years.

这是政府间气候变化专门委员会对气候进行的最新且重大的重新评估，但这是八年来的首次评估。

It also has the clearest, most confident conclusions that I have ever seen in an IPCC report.

这也是我在政府间气候变化专门委员会报告中看到的最明确、最可信的结论。

It says warming is happening — no hedging. We're seeing it already. We understand it much better, and it's speeding up.

报告称气候变暖正在发生，但现在没有任何防范措施。我们已看到气候变暖。我们对其有了更好的了解，气候变暖正在加速。

OK. How badly is it speeding up?

好。速度有多快？

The scientists say the greenhouse gases that we have already put into the air have warmed up the planet so far by almost 2 degrees Fahrenheit.

科学家表示，到目前为止，我们排放到空气中的温室气体已使地球温度升高了近2华氏度。

That's compared to a couple of centuries ago, before, you know, the massive burning of fossil fuels.

这是与几个世纪以前进行的比较，当时还没有大规模燃烧化石燃料。

It's going to keep warming up a bit because of the greenhouse gases we've already released.

由于我们已经释放的温室气体，升温还会持续。

And then beyond that, it depends on us collectively.

除此之外，这取决于我们大家。

If every country, every business shifts away from burning gas and coal and oil over the next 30 years or so,

如果在未来30年左右的时间里，每个国家、每个企业都不再使用天然气、煤炭和石油，

we could probably limit this warming trend to a total of less than 3.5 degrees Fahrenheit or 2 degrees Celsius.

我们可能会将全球变暖的趋势限制在3.5华氏度或2摄氏度以内。

Wait. So even if we really do shift away from fossil fuels fairly soon, we will still see more warming.

等一下。即使我们尽快放弃化石燃料，我们仍然会看到更多的变暖情况。

I guess, then, what happens if we don't ever wean ourselves off fossil fuels?

我在想，如果我们不戒除对化石燃料的依赖呢？

Then it gets really dire. See; this warming trend appears to be accelerating as the greenhouse gases accumulate in the atmosphere.

那会变得非常可怕。你看，随着温室气体在大气中的积累，这种变暖趋势似乎正在加速。

And if we keep burning fossil fuels, by 2100 — so within the lifetime of a child that's born today — the planet could be 5, 6, 7 degrees hotter...

如果我们继续燃烧化石燃料，到2100年，也就是现在出生的孩子的有生之年，地球的温度可能会升高6度、6度、7度……

Wow. Compared to pre-industrial times. That's degrees Fahrenheit. And that is truly a very different world.

哇哦。与前工业时代相比的话。我们说的是华氏度。那会是一个完全不同的世界。

Right. And you're just talking there about average temperatures.

好。你刚才谈到的是平均气温。

But recently, I mean, we've been talking a lot about extreme weather events like heat waves, flooding, things like that.

但最近，我们报道了很多极端天气事件，比如热浪、洪水等。

Right. And one new thing in this report is it tries to put numbers on what that means.

没错。这份报告的新内容是，尝试用数字来进行说明。

So, for instance, they say heat waves so extreme they used to only happen once every 50 years.

例如，他们表示，热浪是如此的极端，以致于过去每50年才发生一次。

Now they're happening almost five times more often. And in a world with lots of warming, they'd happen 40 times more often.

但现在热浪发生的频率几乎增加了五倍。在气候变暖严重的世界里，热浪发生的频率要高出40倍。

Wow. They'd also be hotter. Extreme droughts could double or quadruple in frequency.

哇哦。温度也会更高。极端干旱的频率可能会会翻倍或翻两番。

In a scenario with lots of warming, extreme storms could become three times more frequent and drop 30% more rainfall in a day.

在气候变暖严重的情况下，极端风暴的频率可能会增加三倍，每日降雨量会增加30%。

God. Well, here in the U.S., the Biden administration did promise to move the U.S. to net-zero carbon emissions by 2050.

天哪。美国的拜登政府确实承诺到到2050年使美国实现净零碳排放。

Would that actually be enough, Dan, to avoid some of the worst impacts of climate change? What do you think?

丹，这真的足以避免气候变化的一些最坏影响吗？你怎么看？

That goal —you know, zero carbon emissions by 2050 — that is exactly what's required.

到2050年实现零碳排放这一目标正是所需要的。

It would be a really huge accomplishment —

这将是一项巨大的成就，

you know, switching the electricity grid over to renewable sources of power like solar and wind or hydro or nuclear,

将电网转换为太阳能、风能、水力发电或核能等可再生能源，

using that clean electricity to power cars, heat homes.

利用清洁电力为汽车提供动力，为家庭供暖。

But so far, it's mostly just a promise.

但到目前为止，这基本上只是一个承诺。

The administration has put forward some specific legislative proposals that would start down that path — a clean electricity standard.

政府已提出开启这条道路的一些具体立法建议，比如清洁电力标准。

But that has been blocked by Republicans in Congress and some Democrats so far.

但到目前为止，这一建议遭到了国会共和党人和部分民主党人的阻挠。

OK. Well, world leaders are set to gather for a climate summit in November.

好的。世界各国领导人将于11月举行气候峰会。

Do you think this report was partly intended to influence what happens at that summit?

你认为，在一定程度上，这份报告是为了影响峰会议程吗？

It's pretty clear that the scientists tried to make this report more accessible to the general public.

很明显，科学家试图让公众更容易理解这份报告。

It really does a much better job explaining the science in plain language.

报告在用通俗易懂的语言解释科学方面做得更好。

They say it is not their job to tell political leaders what they should do, but they definitely are saying this is what's at stake.

他们表示，告诉政治领导人应该做的事情不是他们的工作，但他们肯定会说，这是关键所在。

Whatever political leaders decide, these are the likely consequences.

无论政治领导人作何决定，这些都是可能产生的后果。

That is NPR's Dan Charles. Thank you so much, Dan.

以上是NPR新闻的丹·查尔斯带来的报道。非常谢谢你，丹。

Thank you.

谢谢。