2022年经济学人 美国通货膨胀再超预期（1）（在线收听）

Finance & economics

财经板块

American inflation: On the up and up

美国通货膨胀：一升再升

Inflation in America tops forecasts yet again, adding to recession risks

美国通货膨胀再次超过预期，导致经济衰退风险上升

At this point upside surprises in inflation occur with such frequency that surprise is probably the wrong word for them.

此时此刻，通胀的上行惊喜出现的频率如此之高，以至于用“惊喜”来形容它们可能不太合适。

So it was with America’s consumer price index (CPI) for June, published on July 13th.

7月13日公布的美国6月份消费者价格指数(CPI)也是如此。

It soared 9.1% compared with a year earlier, marking yet another four-decade high and beating forecasts for an 8.8% increase.

该指数较去年同期飙升了9.1%，再创40年来新高，超过了8.8%的增长预期。

Still, investors seemed to be caught unawares, with stocks falling sharply after the data, adding to this year’s big losses.

尽管如此，投资者似乎措手不及，数据公布后，股市大幅下挫，加剧了今年的巨大损失。

The pessimism in financial markets is easily understood: persistently high inflation is forcing the Federal Reserve to press on with aggressive monetary tightening, even at the potential cost of a recession.

金融市场的悲观情绪不难理解：居高不下的通胀正迫使美联储继续实施激进的货币紧缩政策，甚至不惜付出经济衰退的潜在代价。

All the more important, therefore, to understand how persistent inflation will be.

因此，更重要的是要了解通胀将会持续到什么程度。

In this respect the most concerning part of the latest data was not the shocking headline figure, about half of which could be attributed to oil and gas prices, which surged early in June but have since ebbed.

就这一点来说，最新数据中最令人担忧的部分并不是令人震惊的整体数据，其中大约一半可以归因于石油和天然气价格，石油和天然气价格在6月初飙升，但此后有所回落。

Rather, it was the change in core prices, stripping out volatile food and energy.

相反，最令人担忧的是剔除了波动较大的食品和能源价格的核心价格变化。

Core inflation rose 0.7% in June from May, the highest month-on-month increase in a year.

6月核心通胀率较5月上升0.7%，为一年来最高环比增幅。

And it was not a blip: over the past three months core inflation has been running at an annualised rate of nearly 8%, an indication of the breadth of price pressures.

这并不是短暂现象：在过去的三个月里，核心通胀的年率一直接近8%，这表明了价格压力的广度。

Just about everything—from cars to clothing and furniture to rents—is getting more expensive.

几乎所有的东西--从汽车到衣服、家具到房租--都变得越来越贵。

That reinforces investors’ belief that the Fed will stay on its hawkish path.

这让投资者更加相信，美联储将继续走鹰派路线。

A day before the inflation data, bond-market pricing implied that the Fed would raise interest rates by three-quarters of a percentage point at its next rate-setting meeting in late July, the second straight increase of that size.

在通胀数据公布的前一天，债券市场的定价表明，美联储将在7月下旬的下一次利率制定会议上加息75个基点，这是美联储连续第二次进行这样幅度的加息。

Following the data, bond pricing put the chances at roughly 50-50 that it would instead opt for a full percentage point increase.

数据公布后，债券定价显示，美联储选择加息整整一个百分点的可能性约为50%。

Either way, it puts the Fed on track for the steepest monetary tightening in a calendar year since 1981, when Paul Volcker was at the central bank’s helm.

无论是哪种情况，这都将使美联储走上自1981年保罗·沃尔克执掌美联储以来最大幅度货币紧缩的轨道。

That is already weighing on economic growth.

这已经在拖累经济增长。