2022年经济学人 美国通货膨胀再超预期（2）（在线收听）

America is hardly alone in struggling with high prices.

美国并不是唯一一个在与高物价作斗争的国家。

Inflation in the euro area is expected to have risen to 8.6% in June.

欧元区6月通胀率预计已经升至8.6%。

But the details are different.

但细节是不同的。

Europe’s problems are more closely linked to surging gas costs, both exacerbating the risk of an imminent recession and perhaps limiting the European Central Bank’s scope for rate increases.

欧洲的问题与飙升的天然气价格联系更为密切，这既加剧了经济衰退迫在眉睫的风险，也可能限制了欧洲央行的加息空间。

That has hurt the euro, which has fallen by more than 10% since the start of the year, bringing it to parity with the dollar for the first time in two decades.

这对欧元造成了影响，自今年年初以来，欧元已下跌逾10%，20年来首次与美元平价。

The White House has tried to put as positive a gloss as possible on the figures.

白宫试图尽可能正面地粉饰这些数据。

Before the data release, it drew attention to the recent decline in petrol prices.

在数据发布之前，它让人们注意到最近汽油价格的下跌。

The national average is now about $4.63 per gallon, 5% lower than in June.

目前全国平均油价约为每加仑4.63美元，比6月份低了5%。

With the price of crude down by even more, that does probably set the stage for a lower inflation reading in July.

随着原油价格进一步下跌，这可能确实为7月份通胀率走低奠定了基础。

Moreover, President Joe Biden’s advisers have noted that an alternative gauge of inflation, the personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) price index, which is usually seen as more reliable by the Fed, has been more muted.

此外，总统乔·拜登的顾问们指出，另一种衡量通胀的指标，即美联储通常认为更可靠的个人消费支出(PCE)价格指数更为模糊不清。

Neither argument is all that reassuring.

这两种说法都不能让人放心。

Energy prices have weakened over the past month, but with the war in Ukraine dragging on and winter looming, they may resume their upward climb before long.

过去一个月，能源价格有所下降，但随着乌克兰战争的拖延和冬季的临近，能源价格可能很快就会恢复上升势头。

As for PCE inflation, it is indeed less extreme than CPI inflation, but it is still more than twice as high as the Fed’s 2% target, and rising prices for services such as health care may nudge it higher still.

至于PCE通胀，它确实没有CPI通胀那么极端，但仍是美联储2%目标的两倍多，而医疗保健等服务价格的上涨可能会进一步推高它。

The best news about inflation is that the Fed’s tightening is in fact gaining traction in the crucial realm of expectations.

有关通胀的最好消息是，美联储的紧缩政策实际上在关键的预期领域获得了推动力。

The Fed cannot solve supply-chain snarls or reduce oil prices.

美联储既不能解决供应链混乱，也不能降低油价。

Where it can be uniquely effective is in tempering the outlook for prices.

它唯一有效的地方是在缓和价格前景方面。

A basic measure of market expectations for annual inflation over the next five years is now 2.5%, down by more than a percentage point since March.

衡量市场对未来五年年度通胀率预期的基本指标现在是2.5%，自3月份以来下降了一个多百分点。

In the middle of June a closely watched consumer survey by the University of Michigan put expected annual inflation at 3.3% for the next five years; by the end of the month it was down to 3.1%.

6月中旬，密歇根大学一项备受关注的消费者调查显示，未来五年的预期年通胀率为3.3%；到月底时，这一数字降到了3.1%。

That is precisely what the Fed wants to see.

这正是美联储希望看到的。

Unfortunately, economists, firms and investors are also busily ratcheting down their expectations for economic growth—a consequence the Fed cannot avoid.

不幸的是，经济学家、公司和投资者也在忙于降低他们对经济增长的预期--这是美联储无法避免的后果。