VOA新闻杂志2023 气候变化加剧叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗的极端干旱（在线收听）

气候变化加剧叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗的极端干旱

A three-year drought has left millions of people in Syria, Iraq, and Iran with little water.

持续三年的干旱使叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗的数百万人缺水。

A new study says it would not have happened without human-caused climate change.

一项新的研究表明，如果没有人为造成的气候变化，这种情况就不会发生。

The west Asian drought started in July 2020.

西亚干旱始于2020年7月。

The new study found that it is mostly because hotter-than-normal temperatures are evaporating the little rainfall that fell.

这项新的研究发现，这主要是因为比正常气温更高的气温正在蒸发掉少量的降雨。

The study is by a team of international climate scientists at World Weather Attribution, a group that researches extreme weather events.

这项研究是由世界气候归因组织的一个国际气候科学家团队进行的，该组织研究极端天气事件。

Friederike Otto, an Imperial College of London climate scientist, is the lead writer of the study.

伦敦帝国理工学院气候科学家弗里德里克·奥托是这项研究的主要作者。

She said that without the world warming 1.2 degrees Celsius since the mid-19th century, "it would not be a drought at all."

她说，如果不是自19世纪中叶以来全球气温上升1.2摄氏度，“根本就不会有干旱天气。”

It is a case of climate change unnaturally intensifying naturally dry conditions into a humanitarian crisis that has left people without food, water, and housing, the study says.

该研究表明，这是气候变化非自然地加剧了自然干旱天气，从而导致人道主义危机，令人们没有食物、水和住房。

Other scientists have yet to confirm if the methods used in this study are correct, in a process called peer review.

其他科学家还没有确认这项研究中使用的方法是否正确，这一过程被称为同行评审。

But it follows scientifically correct methods to look for the signs of climate change.

但它遵循科学正确的方法来寻找气候变化的迹象。

The team looked at temperature, rainfall, and moisture levels.

该研究小组调查了温度、降雨量和湿度水平。

And they compared what happened in the last three years to many different computer models of the conditions in a world without human-caused climate change.

他们将过去三年发生的情况与许多不同的计算机模型进行了对比，这些模型显示的是一个没有人为造成气候变化的世界的天气情况。

"Human-caused global climate change is already making life considerably harder for tens of millions of people in West Asia," said study co-writer Mohammed Rahimi.

该研究论文的合著者穆罕默德·拉希米说：“人为造成的全球气候变化已经让西亚数千万人的生活变得更加艰难。”

He is a professor of climate studies at Semnan University in Iran.

他是伊朗塞姆南大学的气候研究教授。

"With every degree of warming Syria, Iraq and Iran will become even harder places to live."

“随着气温每升高一度，叙利亚、伊拉克和伊朗将会变得更加难以生存。”

Computer models did not find any considerable signs of climate change in the reduced rainfall, which was low but not too rare, Otto said.

奥托说，计算机模型没有在降雨量减少（降雨量很低但不罕见）的情况中发现任何明显的气候变化迹象。

But evaporation of water in lakes, rivers, wetlands, and soil “was much higher than it would have been” without climate change-increased temperatures, she said.

但她说，湖泊、河流、湿地和土壤中的水分蒸发量“比没有气候变化（气温升高）的情况下要高得多。

The study writers found that the drought conditions in Syria and Iraq are 25 times more likely because of climate change, and in Iran, 16 times more likely.

该研究论文的作者发现，由于气候变化，叙利亚和伊拉克干旱的可能性是没有气候变化的25倍，而伊朗干旱的可能性是没有气候变化的16倍。

Kelly Smith of the U.S. National Drought Mitigation Center in Nebraska, who was not part of the study, said the research made sense.

内布拉斯加州美国国家干旱减灾中心的凯利·史密斯没有参与这项研究，他说这项研究是有意义的。

Drought is not unusual to the Middle East area.

干旱在中东地区并不罕见。

And conflict, including Syria's civil war, makes the area even more likely to have a drought because of weakened water systems, said study co-writer Rana El Hajj.

该研究论文的合著者拉纳·埃尔·哈吉说，包括叙利亚内战在内的冲突使该地区更有可能由于供水系统薄弱而发生干旱。

She is with the Red Cross Red Crescent Climate Center in Lebanon.

她就职于黎巴嫩红十字会与红新月气候中心。

"This is already touching the limits of what some people are able to adapt to," Otto said.

奥托说：“这已经触及了一些人能够适应的极限”。

She said as long as we keep burning fuels that affect climate change and give out new permits to explore new oil and gas fields, these kinds of events will only get worse.

她说，只要我们继续燃烧影响气候变化的燃料，并发放勘探新油气田的新许可证，这类事件只会变得更糟。

She added that this will continue to destroy lives and keep food prices high.

她补充说，这将会继续摧毁生命，并使食品价格居高不下。

She said, "And this is not just a problem for some parts of the world, but really a problem for everyone."

她说：“这不仅是世界上某些地区的问题，也是每个人的问题。”