VOA慢速英语2014 专家预测人口或从70亿增长到110亿

 

AS IT IS 2014-09-24 Experts: Population to Grow from 7 to 11 Billion 专家预测人口或从70亿增长到110亿

Our planet is home to about seven billion people. Since the 1990s, population experts have predicted the number would grow to nine billion before it begins to slow down and possibly decrease.

But a new report predicts the world’s population is likely to increase to almost 11-billion by 2100. The new estimates are based on the most modern statistical¹ tools. They make use of government records and expert predictions about death rates, fertility rates and international migration², or people moving across borders.

During the rest of this century, Africa is likely to experience the largest increase in population. The report says Africa’s population will grow from about 3.5 billion to 5.1 billion people over the next 85 years.

John Wilmoth is director of the United Nations Population Division. He says that in the past, researchers thought population growth in Africa would be similar to that of other areas. They expected slower growth rates as birth control use became more widespread. But he says those estimates were wrong.

“The level of contraception use has continued to increase but slowly – more slowly than expected – and fertility therefore has been falling less rapidly than expected, and the population therefore continues to grow somewhat more rapidly than we expected.”

The new findings are based on a joint³ research project of the United Nations and the University of Washington.

The researchers believe the population of Asia will reach five billion by 2050. That is up from the current 4.4-billion people.

The researchers also believe that North America, Europe, Latin America and the Caribbean area will have a total population of below one billion.

John Wilmoth says the pressure of feeding the rising population is likely to be less than might be expected.

“The relatively⁴ good news is that the world has been winning the race between population growth and food production. If you look back historically over the last 50 years, certainly for the world as a whole and for many, most individual countries and regions, the increase in food production has outpaced the increase of population.”

The latest population estimates appear in a report published in Science magazine. The findings replace the most recent U.N. projections⁵, which were released in July.

1 statistical   

adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• He showed the price fluctuations in a statistical table.他用统计表显示价格的波动。
• They're making detailed statistical analysis.他们正在做具体的统计分析。

2 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

3 joint   

adj.联合的，共同的；n.关节，接合处；v.连接，贴合

参考例句：

• I had a bad fall,which put my shoulder out of joint.我重重地摔了一跤，肩膀脫臼了。
• We wrote a letter in joint names.我们联名写了封信。

4 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

5 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。