VOA慢速英语2016 鹿死谁手? 美国总统大选进入冲刺阶段

鹿死谁手? 美国总统大选进入冲刺阶段

The U.S. Presidential election is getting closer.

The latest average of major polls shows Democrat Hillary Clinton leading Republican Donald Trump by 3.3 percentage points, according to RealClearPolitics.com.

On August 10, that same average of nine polls had Clinton up by 7.7 percentage points.

A new poll Wednesday by CNN-ORC had Trump ahead by two points -- 45 percent to 43 percent -- among likely voters.

'Bounce' is Gone

Larry Sabato is director of the Center for Politics at the University of Virginia.

He said "The tightening is natural. Sabato said it is because the "bounce" Clinton received in polls after the Democratic Party convention in July has gone.

Sabato said Clinton still leads in most of the important swing states that will decide the presidential election. Swing states are states where both Democrats and Republicans have a good chance of winning.

"There's no guarantee she (Clinton) will win, but the odds currently favor her," Sabato said.

In the United States, the candidate who wins the election is not always the one who receives the most votes.

The Electoral College Decides

The election is decided by the Electoral College. Each state has seats in the Electoral College. States with larger populations have more seats.

Trump was very happy about the new CNN poll showing him leading among likely voters. Earlier CNN polls had him losing to Clinton.

"Their big poll came out today that Trump is winning," he said. "It's good psychology. I know that for a fact, because people that didn't call me yesterday, they are calling me today. So that's the way life works, right?"

A close race might increase the importance of two minor party presidential candidates -- Libertarian Party candidate Gary Johnson and Green Party Candidate Jill Stein. In the new CNN poll, 7 percent of likely voters support Johnson, 2 percent back Stein.

These low numbers for Johnson and Stein are surprising because large numbers of voters say they doubt whether Trump or Clinton would have the ability to lead the country.

Not Much Confidence

A new 50-state Washington Post-SurveyMonkey poll showed these results: 55 percent of registered voters say a Clinton presidency would threaten the well-being of the United States. And 61 percent say a Trump presidency would threaten the nation's well-being.

Nate Silver heads the political website fivethirtyeight.com -- named for the number of voting seats in the Electoral College. He still thinks Clinton is leading, but he says he is less sure than before.

The reason Silver is not sure is that so many voters -- about 20 percent – are telling pollsters that they are undecided or they will vote for a minor party candidate.

Silver gives "Trump better odds of winning than most other" experts who use polls and other information to predict election results. But he said there is "also a significant chance of a Clinton landslide," or win by a very large percentage.

A close race could increase the importance of the four televised candidate debates. The three presidential debates will probably be for only Clinton and Trump without the minor candidates. The fourth, for the vice presidential candidates -- will probably be just for Republican Mike Pence and Democrat Tim Kaine.

The first presidential debate takes place September 26. The election is November 8.

Sabato, the University of Virginia expert, said it is possible a very good debate by one of the candidates, or a major mistake by a candidate might cause people to change their opinions.

 

But usually, Sabato said, voters watch debates with their opinions already settled.

美国总统大选日益临近。

据Real Clear Politics.com网站统计，从最近几项主要民意调查的平均结果来看，民主党人希拉里领先共和党人特朗普3.3个百分点。

8月10日，9项民意调查的平均值显示，希拉里的支持率上升至7.7个百分点。

周三，CNN-ORC出具的一项最近民意调查显示，在选民的投票结果中，特朗普以45%比43%的优势领先2个百分点。

“反弹”不再

拉里·萨巴托是维吉尼亚大学政治中心主任。

美国选举进入冲刺阶段.jpg

他说:“竞选态势收紧再正常不过。萨巴托表示，因为希拉里在7月份民主党大会受到的民意“反弹”效应逐渐消散。

萨巴托说，希拉里仍然在多个对选举结果有决定作用且摇摆不定的州占据优势。摇摆不定意指民主党和共和党都有机会获胜。

萨巴托说：“虽无法肯定她（希拉里）能获胜，但目前的可能性更偏向她。”

有时候，赢得美国选举的候选人并不是获得选票最多的。

选举人团至关重要

总统选举由选举人团决定。每个州在选举人团拥有席位。人口众多的州则拥有更多席位。

CNN最近的民意调查显示特朗普选民支持率领先，特朗普对此十分满意。之前的CNN民意调查中，他不敌希拉里。

他说，“今天重大的民意调查结果显示特朗普获胜，这一结果让人为之一振。其实这种套路我再了解不过，昨天那些没有联系我的人，今天会争先恐后地联系我。这就是社会规律，对吧?”

这场难分上下的竞选或将加剧美国自由党总统候选人加里约翰逊与绿党总统候选人吉尔斯坦对美国大选的影响程度。最新的CNN民意调查中，7%的选民支持约翰逊，2%的选民支持吉尔斯坦。

约翰逊和斯坦的支持率如此之低让人惊叹，因为大批选民质疑，特朗普和希拉里是否有能力领导美国。

没有太多信心

华盛顿邮报全美50州最新民意调查SurveyMonkey显示，55%的注册选民称希拉里当选总统将威胁美国的福祉。认为特朗普任总统将威胁国家利益的选民高达61%。

纳特·西尔弗是政治网站fivethirtyeight.com的负责人——该网站名称喻指选举人团中拥有投票席位的数量。他依旧认为希拉里领先，但却无法像以前那么肯定。

让西尔弗不确定的因素包括，约20%的选民表示，他们还在观望或把票投给少数党候选人。

西尔弗支持那些通过调查及其他信息预测“特朗普获胜的几率最大”的专家。但他表示，“希拉里获胜的可能性也很大，”或者以极高的支持率赢得大选。

这场胶着的选举让四个候选人的电视辩论变得尤其重要。前三场总统辩论可能只有希拉里和特朗普参加。第四场（共和党副总统候选人）辩论，可能只有共和党潘斯和民主党蒂姆·凯恩参加。

第一场总统辩论将于9月26日举行。总统选举时间为11月8日。

弗吉尼亚大学的专家萨巴托表示，对其中一位候选人来说，此次辩论可能是一次扭转局势的重要“节点”，也有可能成为导致选民倒戈的最大“败笔”。

然而萨巴托指出，通常，选民观看辩论赛之前已经决定好了去向。