Study: AI Predicts Immediate Rainfall Better than Existing Systems

British researchers say they have created an artificial intelligence (AI) model that is highly effective at predicting rainfall within the next 90 minutes.

The model was built by scientists at Google-owned research company DeepMind in London. The company partnered with researchers at the University of Exeter in Britain and the Met Office, the British government's national weather service.

The team says tests of the system showed it produced more accurate predictions, or forecasts, for short-term rainfall than other existing systems. The paper recently appeared in the publication Nature.

The scientists centered on a kind of weather prediction known as "precipitation nowcasting." This is defined as the prediction of precipitation, like rain, within the next 1-2 hours. Making forecasts of this kind has traditionally been very difficult.

But accurate nowcasting can be a very important tool for preparing for possible weather emergencies. It can be used by officials in the areas of water management, agriculture, air and ground traffic control and outdoor event planning.

The Met Office has depended on a system called numerical weather prediction since the early 1950s. That method uses "the latest weather observations alongside a mathematical computer model of the atmosphere" to make forecasts.

The system collects data on the level and movements of fluid in the atmosphere based on radar¹ and satellite data. The computer then processes the data and produces map-like models to predict future weather.

The Met Office currently produces forecasts with a powerful new "supercomputer" that became fully² operational in 2017. The agency says the increased power permits forecasters to make more accurate predictions based on detailed³ models.

But the supercomputer is designed to produce forecasts for very wide areas over a period of hours, days or a week. The computer still struggles with precipitation predictions within 1 to 2 hours.

The DeepMind team says its model uses machine learning to capture the amount, timing⁴ and place of rainfall within 90 minutes to 2 hours.

Machine learning involves feeding massive amounts of data to computers to train the machines to learn patterns and behaviors over time. In this case, the system was trained to make predictions of future radar based on past radar readings. The study used radar data from both Britain and the United States.

"We were especially interested in the ability of these models to make predictions on medium to heavy-rain events, which are the events that most impact people and the economy," the team said.

The scientists said their model aims to create predictive "movies" of immediate⁵ weather patterns. They said that, unlike other systems, theirs can accurately⁶ capture large-scale events, as well as several different rain possibilities. This combination permits "rainfall uncertainties⁷" to be deeply explored.

During the testing process, the team said the model showed "statistically⁸ significant" improvements in these areas compared to competing methods. In addition, the researchers reported that a group of more than 50 weather experts from the Met Office rated the AI model to be more accurate and useful in 89 percent of cases than existing forecasting systems.

Despite the study results, researchers admitted that the model still has limitations. They said "more work is needed to improve the accuracy of long-term predictions and the accuracy on rare and intense events."

The team said it will now center on developing new methods to test and measure the model's performance. It will also work to create more specialized¹⁰ systems to work in real-world conditions.

Words in This Story

artificial intelligence (AI) – n. an area of computer science that deals with giving machines the ability to seem like they have human intelligence

accurate – adj. correct or exact

management – n. the way in which something is carried out and controlled

pattern – n. a particular way that something is often done or repeated

impact – n. an effect that a person, event or situation has on someone or something

uncertain – adj. not sure or not able to decide about something

statistic⁹ – n. a fact in the form of a number that shows information about something

significant – adj. important or notable

1 radar   

n.雷达，无线电探测器

参考例句：

• They are following the flight of an aircraft by radar.他们正在用雷达追踪一架飞机的飞行。
• Enemy ships were detected on the radar.敌舰的影像已显现在雷达上。

2 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

3 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

4 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

5 immediate   

adj.立即的；直接的，最接近的；紧靠的

参考例句：

• His immediate neighbours felt it their duty to call.他的近邻认为他们有责任去拜访。
• We declared ourselves for the immediate convocation of the meeting.我们主张立即召开这个会议。

6 accurately   

adv.准确地，精确地

参考例句：

• It is hard to hit the ball accurately.准确地击中球很难。
• Now scientists can forecast the weather accurately.现在科学家们能准确地预报天气。

7 uncertainties   

无把握( uncertainty的名词复数 )； 不确定； 变化不定； 无把握、不确定的事物

参考例句：

• One of the uncertainties of military duty is that you never know when you might suddenly get posted away. 任军职不稳定的因素之一是你永远不知道什么时候会突然被派往它处。
• Uncertainties affecting peace and development are on the rise. 影响和平与发展的不确定因素在增加。 来自汉英非文学 - 十六大报告

8 statistically   

ad.根据统计数据来看，从统计学的观点来看

参考例句：

• The sample of building permits is larger and therefore, statistically satisfying. 建筑许可数的样本比较大，所以统计数据更令人满意。
• The results of each test would have to be statistically independent. 每次试验的结果在统计上必须是独立的。

9 statistic   

n.统计量；adj.统计的，统计学的

参考例句：

• Official statistics show real wages declining by 24%.官方统计数字表明实际工资下降了24%。
• There are no reliable statistics for the number of deaths in the battle.关于阵亡人数没有可靠的统计数字。

10 specialized   

adj.专门的，专业化的

参考例句：

• There are many specialized agencies in the United Nations.联合国有许多专门机构。
• These tools are very specialized.这些是专用工具。