SCIENCE IN THE NEWS

SCIENCE IN THE NEWS
By

Broadcast: Tuesday, November 02, 2004

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VOICE ONE:

Welcome to Science in the News in VOA Special English. I'm Bob Doughty¹.

VOICE TWO:

And I'm Sarah Long. This week: a research vehicle that will carry people to ninety-nine percent of the ocean floor and we answer a listener's question about the famous English scientist, Isaac Newton.

VOICE ONE:

But first, we have a look at the science of public opinion studies.

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VOICE ONE:

Americans are electing a President Tuesday. We hope to learn the name of the winner soon. However, public opinion studies have been attempting to identify the winner for several months now. Every few days another study claims to know which candidate has the most support.

What exactly are these studies? How and where do they get their numbers? And, how trustworthy are the findings?

Some of the best-known opinion research companies are the Gallup Organization, Zogby International and the Pew Research Center. These companies often work for news organizations during an election campaign. This is why a study will often have several names connected with it.

VOICE TWO:

For example, you might read about a C.N.N./U.S.A. Today/Gallup study. A Gallup official says this means that Cable News Network and the newspaper U.S.A. Today requested and paid for the study. And, they have the right to report results of the study first. But, the official says news organizations normally have no control over how the study is carried out or its results.

 
Graphic² Image
In the United States, opinion research companies often question about one-thousand people for a study. Mathematical evidence suggests that this is enough people for a general understanding of the country's one-hundred-million possible voters. If two-thousand people are questioned, the results do not change very much. Experts say the science of questioning people is similar to the science of testing blood. A small amount can closely represent the whole.

VOICE ONE:

Many research companies have equipment that can create telephone numbers from all the areas of the United States. A telephone connected to a computer then calls a number at random³. This means each number has the same chance of being called. The process is meant to guarantee that people across the country are represented in the study.

Some companies use numbers of people who are listed with political parties. This is a more direct way to reach likely voters. However, it may not be as representative. This method may not include new voters. It also may miss people who keep their telephone number private or use only wireless⁴ phones. And, most calling is done at night. So people who work nights are likely to be missed.

VOICE TWO:

Opinion research companies question adult members of homes. They seek people of different racial and socio-economic groups and parties. And they want to balance representation in the study with representation in the general population. But, it is not likely that any one study group will be perfectly⁵ representative.

So, researchers commonly use a method called "weighting" in an effort to balance the study. In simple terms, they will increase the influence of groups that are not fairly represented in the study. They give more weight to answers provided by members of such groups.

Political opinion studies always weight likely voters. There are several methods they use to judge if someone is likely to vote. The Gallup Organization has a list of questions to measure a person's interest in the election. Research companies also consider how a person voted in earlier elections.

VOICE ONE:

No opinion study is perfect. All such studies come with what is called a margin⁶ of error. A study of one-thousand randomly⁷ chosen people will produce results with a three percent margin of error. In other words, ninety-five percent of the time another study will produce similar results, within three percentage points.

Most researchers would say they want their studies to be as scientific as possible. But, it is hard to create completely neutral questions. And, even if questions are neutral, the order that they are asked may affect the results.

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VOICE TWO:

American scientists have announced plans for a new deep-sea diving research vehicle. It will be able to carry people to ninety-nine percent of the ocean floor. The planned vehicle will replace Alvin, a submarine that has been operating for forty years. Alvin has helped researchers study deep-sea creatures, the movement of continents and even the wreck⁸ of the passenger ship Titanic⁹.

The new vehicle will be ready in four years. It is expected to cost more than twenty-one million dollars. Most of the money will come from an independent federal agency, the National Science Foundation. The foundation supports research projects and education in all areas of science and engineering.

VOICE ONE:

The Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution will operate the new vehicle as it now operates Alvin. Woods Hole is a private research organization in Falmouth, Massachusetts.

The planned vehicle will be able to dive six thousand five hundred meters below the surface of the ocean. Alvin dives to four thousand five hundred meters.

Scientists say the new vehicle will be able to explore areas of the ocean that have not been explored before. The new vehicle is expected to dive faster and move forward more quickly than Alvin. It also will carry more scientific equipment and have better information collection and communication systems.

VOICE TWO:

The National Science Foundation says the replacement¹⁰ for Alvin will require no major changes to its support ship, the Atlantis. And, the operating costs of the underwater vehicles are expected to be similar. Alvin is the only deep-diving human-occupied vehicle in the United States. There are four other such vehicles in the world.

The submarine has completed more than four thousand dives. It also has transported more than twelve thousand people to the deep-sea floor. Alvin has spent more than twenty-seven thousand hours underwater since nineteen sixty-four.

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VOICE ONE:

 
Isaac Newton
Our listener question this week comes from Saudi Arabia. Mohd Nafisah asks about the great scientist Isaac Newton.

Newton was born in sixteen-forty-two in Woolsthorpe, England. During his lifetime, he made discoveries in astronomy, mathematics, optics, and physics. They helped change the direction of scientific discovery for centuries.

Newton received his education at Trinity College in Cambridge, England. He invented the theory of integral calculus¹¹ in the sixteen-sixties. Calculus is the area of mathematics that deals with changing amounts, or quantities. A German mathematician¹², Gottfried Wilhelm von Leibniz, developed differential calculus independently.

VOICE TWO:

Newton discovered how the universe is held together. He called this theory, the "Law of Universal Gravitation." He explained his ideas in a book commonly called "Principia." It is considered by experts to be one of the greatest scientific books ever written. It includes Newton's three laws of motion.

His first law of motion states that an object in motion will continue moving unless it is affected¹³ by a foreign, or outside, force. His second law says the speed of an object depends on two things -- the force acting¹⁴ on the object and the object's mass. His third law states that, for every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction.

VOICE ONE:

Newton showed that white light was made up of colors mixed together. He discovered this through a series of experiments with a prism of cut glass. He used his discoveries to build a reflecting telescope. It used a flat surface to show images of objects in the sky.

Isaac Newton died in seventeen twenty-seven. He was buried at Westminster Abbey in London. Today, he is considered one of the greatest scientists who ever lived. His laws and theories influenced religion and culture for years after his death.

To learn more about Newton's influence on our world, computer users should visit the New York City Public Library Internet website at www.nypl.org. The Library currently has a show about Sir Isaac Newton and his life. It can be seen at one of New York's Public Libraries through February fifth of next year.

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VOICE TWO:

This program was written by Caty Weaver¹⁵, George Grow and Jill Moss¹⁶. Cynthia Kirk was our producer. And, our engineer was Dwayne Collins. I'm Sarah Long.

VOICE ONE:

And I'm Bob Doughty. Join us again next week for Science in the News in VOA Special English.

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1 doughty   

adj.勇猛的，坚强的

参考例句：

• Most of successful men have the characteristics of contumacy and doughty.绝大多数成功人士都有共同的特质：脾气倔强，性格刚强。
• The doughty old man battled his illness with fierce determination.坚强的老人用巨大毅力与疾病作斗争。

2 graphic   

adj.生动的，形象的，绘画的，文字的，图表的

参考例句：

• The book gave a graphic description of the war.这本书生动地描述了战争的情况。
• Distinguish important text items in lists with graphic icons.用图标来区分重要的文本项。

3 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。

4 wireless   

adj.无线的；n.无线电

参考例句：

• There are a lot of wireless links in a radio.收音机里有许多无线电线路。
• Wireless messages tell us that the ship was sinking.无线电报告知我们那艘船正在下沉。

5 perfectly   

adv.完美地，无可非议地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The witnesses were each perfectly certain of what they said.证人们个个对自己所说的话十分肯定。
• Everything that we're doing is all perfectly above board.我们做的每件事情都是光明正大的。

6 margin   

n.页边空白；差额；余地，余裕；边，边缘

参考例句：

• We allowed a margin of 20 minutes in catching the train.我们有20分钟的余地赶火车。
• The village is situated at the margin of a forest.村子位于森林的边缘。

7 randomly   

adv.随便地，未加计划地

参考例句：

• Within the hot gas chamber, molecules are moving randomly in all directions. 在灼热的气体燃烧室内，分子在各个方向上作无规运动。 来自辞典例句
• Transformed cells are loosely attached, rounded and randomly oriented. 转化细胞则不大贴壁、圆缩并呈杂乱分布。 来自辞典例句

8 wreck   

n.失事，遇难；沉船；vt.(船等)失事，遇难

参考例句：

• Weather may have been a factor in the wreck.天气可能是造成这次失事的原因之一。
• No one can wreck the friendship between us.没有人能够破坏我们之间的友谊。

9 titanic   

adj.巨人的，庞大的，强大的

参考例句：

• We have been making titanic effort to achieve our purpose.我们一直在作极大的努力，以达到我们的目的。
• The island was created by titanic powers and they are still at work today.台湾岛是由一个至今仍然在运作的巨大力量塑造出来的。

10 replacement   

n.取代，替换，交换；替代品，代用品

参考例句：

• We are hard put to find a replacement for our assistant.我们很难找到一个人来代替我们的助手。
• They put all the students through the replacement examination.他们让所有的学生参加分班考试。

11 calculus   

n.微积分；结石

参考例句：

• This is a problem where calculus won't help at all.对于这一题，微积分一点也用不上。
• After studying differential calculus you will be able to solve these mathematical problems.学了微积分之后，你们就能够解这些数学题了。

12 mathematician   

n.数学家

参考例句：

• The man with his back to the camera is a mathematician.背对着照相机的人是位数学家。
• The mathematician analyzed his figures again.这位数学家再次分析研究了他的这些数字。

13 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

14 acting   

n.演戏，行为，假装；adj.代理的，临时的，演出用的

参考例句：

• Ignore her,she's just acting.别理她，她只是假装的。
• During the seventies,her acting career was in eclipse.在七十年代，她的表演生涯黯然失色。

15 weaver   

n.织布工；编织者

参考例句：

• She was a fast weaver and the cloth was very good.她织布织得很快，而且布的质量很好。
• The eager weaver did not notice my confusion.热心的纺织工人没有注意到我的狼狈相。

16 moss   

n.苔，藓，地衣

参考例句：

• Moss grows on a rock.苔藓生在石头上。
• He was found asleep on a pillow of leaves and moss.有人看见他枕着树叶和苔藓睡着了。