2006年VOA标准英语-Analysts: Iran Elections to Gauge President's P

By Gary Thomas
Washington
14 December 2006

Iranian woman, wearing the traditional Islamic black veil, looks at campaign posters of female candidate Masoumeh Kolahi, in Tehran, 13 Dec 2006

Iranians are to vote Friday in elections for local governments, as well as the body that will choose the country's Supreme¹ Leader. As VOA correspondent Gary Thomas reports, the elections are expected to open up simmering rivalries² on Iran's political landscape.

Friday's elections have significance as a both a barometer³ of President Mahmoud Ahmadinejad's popularity and power and as an indicator⁴ of Iran's future course.

 

Voters are to choose city and rural councils that have considerable political clout⁵, including the power to appoint a mayor. Ahmadinejad was mayor of Tehran until his surprising electoral victory 18 months ago.

Also at stake is the Assembly of Experts, a board of Islamic clerics whose main function is to monitor the performance of Iran's Supreme Leader and, if necessary, appoint a new one - a task it has performed only once, when it named Ayatollah Ali Khamenei to the post in 1989.

One hundred, sixty-three candidates have been approved by the Guardian⁶ Council to run for seats on the 86-member body. Ayatollah Mohammad Taqhi Mesbah-Yazdi is heading a slate⁷ of conservative Ahmadinejad supporters. Opposing them is a group backed by an old guard politician, former President Ali Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani, who lost to Ahmadinejad in last year's presidential vote.

Ken⁸ Katzman, an Iran analyst⁹ at the nonpartisan Congressional Research Service, calls the Assembly of Experts election "enormously important."

"That could really determine the future of the direction of the regime because Mesbah-Yazdi is a hardliner close to Ahmadinejad who, should they win that election, be really in a position to support Ahmadinejad against his rivals within the regime and, to some extent, counterbalance the power of the Supreme Leader,"  he explained.

The reform movement, which has been badly battered¹⁰ in recent years, hopes to make a comeback, especially in the critical Tehran City Council races. The outcome in local polls, say analysts¹¹, may hinge on how well people think President Ahmadinejad has performed in his first 18 months in office.

Ahmadinejad campaigned last year as a populist, pledging to redistribute wealth. As a non-cleric, he also stands in stark¹² contrast to his rival Rafsanjani, a cleric widely perceived as having enriched himself through the various offices he has held in the Iranian government.

Wayne White, a former senior State Department intelligence analyst now at the Middle East Institute, says Ahmadinejad's track record on keeping his campaign promises is mixed.

"He has come under some criticism already for not living up to his promises of delivery, in other words, still promising¹³ and not bringing home the goods for a lot of people," noted¹⁴ White. "So I would say that for Ahmadinejad probably the next year is going to be very important because people are not going to wait forever to see substantial rewards."

But, White adds, Ahmadinejad's support still seems to be strong among the poorer classes in Iran, at least for now.

"Things are in flux¹⁵. But Ahmadinejad may be a more significant player than some people give him credit for. I think he's very clever politically," commented White. "He probably does not have great foresight¹⁶ or experience in international affairs. And he may actually be able to muster¹⁷ considerable street power, particularly in Tehran among poor Tehranis, which is, let's face it, the center of politics and political action in Iran."

Analysts say the success of Ahmadinejad supporters in the local elections will also hinge on how well his core support of post-Revolution young conservatives get out the vote. Text messaging on mobile phones, which did not exist at the time of the 1979 Iranian revolution, is now a favorite political and social organizing tool in Iran.

1 supreme   

adj.极度的，最重要的；至高的，最高的

参考例句：

• It was the supreme moment in his life.那是他一生中最重要的时刻。
• He handed up the indictment to the supreme court.他把起诉书送交最高法院。

2 rivalries   

n.敌对，竞争，对抗( rivalry的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The new government was torn by rivalries. 新政府由于各派对立而四分五裂。 来自辞典例句
• Rivalries could bring about pain and hatred or give rise to fighting. 竞争会带来痛苦、仇恨，或者引起争斗。 来自互联网

3 barometer   

n.气压表，睛雨表，反应指标

参考例句：

• The barometer marked a continuing fall in atmospheric pressure.气压表表明气压在继续下降。
• The arrow on the barometer was pointing to"stormy".气压计上的箭头指向“有暴风雨”。

4 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

5 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

6 guardian   

n.监护人；守卫者，保护者

参考例句：

• The form must be signed by the child's parents or guardian. 这张表格须由孩子的家长或监护人签字。
• The press is a guardian of the public weal. 报刊是公共福利的卫护者。

7 slate   

n.板岩，石板，石片，石板色，候选人名单；adj.暗蓝灰色的，含板岩的；vt.用石板覆盖，痛打，提名，预订

参考例句：

• The nominating committee laid its slate before the board.提名委员会把候选人名单提交全体委员会讨论。
• What kind of job uses stained wood and slate? 什么工作会接触木头污浊和石板呢？

8 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

9 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

10 battered   

adj.磨损的；v.连续猛击；磨损

参考例句：

• He drove up in a battered old car.他开着一辆又老又破的旧车。
• The world was brutally battered but it survived.这个世界遭受了惨重的创伤,但它还是生存下来了。

11 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

12 stark   

adj.荒凉的；严酷的；完全的；adv.完全地

参考例句：

• The young man is faced with a stark choice.这位年轻人面临严峻的抉择。
• He gave a stark denial to the rumor.他对谣言加以完全的否认。

13 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

14 noted   

adj.著名的，知名的

参考例句：

• The local hotel is noted for its good table.当地的那家酒店以餐食精美而著称。
• Jim is noted for arriving late for work.吉姆上班迟到出了名。

15 flux   

n.流动；不断的改变

参考例句：

• The market is in a constant state of flux.市场行情在不断变化。
• In most reactors,there is a significant flux of fast neutrons.在大部分反应堆中都有一定强度的快中子流。

16 foresight   

n.先见之明，深谋远虑

参考例句：

• The failure is the result of our lack of foresight.这次失败是由于我们缺乏远虑而造成的。
• It required a statesman's foresight and sagacity to make the decision.作出这个决定需要政治家的远见卓识。

17 muster   

v.集合，收集，鼓起，激起；n.集合，检阅，集合人员，点名册

参考例句：

• Go and muster all the men you can find.去集合所有你能找到的人。
• I had to muster my courage up to ask him that question.我必须鼓起勇气向他问那个问题。