2006年VOA标准英语-Study Says India Has Fewer HIV Infections Than

By Anjana Pasricha
New Delhi
17 December 2006

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HIV affected children in a festive mood at a function in Hyderabad, 7 Dec 2006

A recent study suggests that the number of people afflicted³ with HIV/AIDS in India could be far lower than current estimates. The United Nations says India has 5.7 million people living with the AIDS virus, the highest number in the world. But as Anjana Pasricha reports from New Delhi, the real number might be only half of that.

Ever since the first AIDS case was diagnosed in India 20 years ago, there has been a heated debate over how many people in this massive country are affected by HIV, the AIDS virus.

Voluntary groups frequently accuse government officials of downplaying the problem, and maintain that the number far exceeds the official estimate of 5.7 million.

The United Nations bases that figure on information from the Indian government, and calls it the largest number of cases in the world. Some years ago, in a widely cited prediction, the U.S. Central Intelligence Agency said the number of HIV-positive people in India could swell⁴ to 20 million by 2010.

But a new study published in the British medical journal BMC Medicine says these numbers could be gross overestimates⁵. The actual number at present, the study suggests, might be less than half the official figure.

The study was conducted by the Administrative⁶ Staff College of India in Hyderabad, a well-known research and consultancy group. It was carried out in the Guntur district of Andhra Pradesh province, which is one of the areas of the country worst hit by HIV.

The researchers say they followed a different method from the government: they tested individuals one by one, while the government bases its figures on data collected from pre-natal clinics, sexual health clinics and public hospitals.

Lalit Dandona, who headed the study, says the government method gives a flawed picture. He says one reason might be that the clinics are used by the segment of society in which HIV is most prevalent.

"The profile of the women using ante-natal clinics in the public sector⁷ is not representative of the population," he said. "And secondly⁸, the public-sector hospitals are used disproportionately higher by the lower socio-economic strata⁹, which in our study had a higher HIV rate. So these two reasons combined lead to an artificially inflated¹⁰ HIV rate if it is directly applied¹¹ to the entire population."

Dandona says the discrepancy¹² stood out starkly¹³ in Guntur. The researchers collected about 12,000 blood samples from young men and women there. From this, they estimated that there were 45,900 people living with HIV in Guntur - less than half the 112,600 suggested by the official method.

The United Nations AIDS chief in India, Denis Broun, calls it a good study, but says it is too early to tell whether it is valid¹⁴ for India's entire billion-plus population.

"It has good methodology, it has a good size of the sample and the quality of the study is great," said Broun. "We are a little more concerned about the conclusions, which are drawn¹⁵ from it. It is difficult to draw conclusions from one district and apply them to the whole of India."

There would be some precedent¹⁶ for a revised figure. In the past, the U.N.'s HIV figures for some African countries were found to be overestimated¹⁷, and were revised downwards¹⁸.

1 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

2 festive   

adj.欢宴的，节日的

参考例句：

• It was Christmas and everyone was in festive mood.当时是圣诞节，每个人都沉浸在节日的欢乐中。
• We all wore festive costumes to the ball.我们都穿着节日的盛装前去参加舞会。

3 afflicted   

使受痛苦，折磨( afflict的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• About 40% of the country's population is afflicted with the disease. 全国40%左右的人口患有这种疾病。
• A terrible restlessness that was like to hunger afflicted Martin Eden. 一阵可怕的、跟饥饿差不多的不安情绪折磨着马丁·伊登。

4 swell   

vi.膨胀，肿胀；增长，增强

参考例句：

• The waves had taken on a deep swell.海浪汹涌。
• His injured wrist began to swell.他那受伤的手腕开始肿了。

5 overestimates   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• These overestimates counterbalanced the uncertain risk of radiation releases after sealing. 这些过高估计抵消了在密封以后放射性物泄漏所产生的未知危害。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Never underestimate a man who overestimates himself. 切勿低估一个过高估计他自己的人。

6 administrative   

adj.行政的，管理的

参考例句：

• The administrative burden must be lifted from local government.必须解除地方政府的行政负担。
• He regarded all these administrative details as beneath his notice.他认为行政管理上的这些琐事都不值一顾。

7 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

8 secondly   

adv.第二，其次

参考例句：

• Secondly,use your own head and present your point of view.第二，动脑筋提出自己的见解。
• Secondly it is necessary to define the applied load.其次，需要确定所作用的载荷。

9 strata   

n.地层（复数）；社会阶层

参考例句：

• The older strata gradually disintegrate.较老的岩层渐渐风化。
• They represent all social strata.他们代表各个社会阶层。

10 inflated   

adj.（价格）飞涨的；（通货）膨胀的；言过其实的；充了气的v.使充气（于轮胎、气球等）( inflate的过去式和过去分词 )；（使）膨胀；（使）通货膨胀；物价上涨

参考例句：

• He has an inflated sense of his own importance. 他自视过高。
• They all seem to take an inflated view of their collective identity. 他们对自己的集体身份似乎都持有一种夸大的看法。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

12 discrepancy   

n.不同；不符；差异；矛盾

参考例句：

• The discrepancy in their ages seemed not to matter.他们之间年龄的差异似乎没有多大关系。
• There was a discrepancy in the two reports of the accident.关于那次事故的两则报道有不一致之处。

13 starkly   

adj. 变硬了的,完全的 adv. 完全,实在,简直

参考例句：

• The city of Befast remains starkly divided between Catholics and Protestants. 贝尔法斯特市完全被处在天主教徒和新教徒的纷争之中。
• The black rocks stood out starkly against the sky. 那些黑色的岩石在天空衬托下十分显眼。

14 valid   

adj.有确实根据的；有效的；正当的，合法的

参考例句：

• His claim to own the house is valid.他主张对此屋的所有权有效。
• Do you have valid reasons for your absence?你的缺席有正当理由吗？

15 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

16 precedent   

n.先例，前例；惯例；adj.在前的，在先的

参考例句：

• Is there a precedent for what you want me to do?你要我做的事有前例可援吗？
• This is a wonderful achievement without precedent in Chinese history.这是中国历史上亘古未有的奇绩。

17 overestimated   

对（数量）估计过高，对…作过高的评价( overestimate的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• They overestimated his ability when they promoted him. 他们提拔他的时候高估了他的能力。
• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。

18 downwards   

adj./adv.向下的（地），下行的（地）

参考例句：

• He lay face downwards on his bed.他脸向下伏在床上。
• As the river flows downwards,it widens.这条河愈到下游愈宽。