2006年VOA标准英语-Is Iraq in a Civil War?

By Brian Padden
Washington, DC
18 December 2006
 
watch Civil War report

There has been much talk about whether the level of sectarian violence in Iraq has risen to the point where it should be called a civil war.  Why is it important to make such a distinction?  VOA's Brian Padden recently talked to two political analysts¹ who say,  "Yes, Iraq is definitely in a civil war," and they say this new reality should alter American expectations and strategies in Iraq.

 
A gunman in the streets of Baghdad
In the last year the sectarian violence in Iraq has claimed more than 1,000 lives in fighting between two or more factions² in the country.  This sustained level of violence fulfills³ the academic definition of a civil war, says Seth Jones, a political scientist with the Rand Corporation.  This is important to understand, he says, because civil wars can last longer and are more difficult to resolve than interstate wars.

 
Seth Jones
"In civil wars there generally is no territorial⁴ retreat.  Once a war is over, actually civil wars are often likely to restart again even once there is a negotiated settlement.   Because you often will have those people that remain in the country. "

Michael O'Hanlon, an Iraq policy expert with The Brookings Institution says it is important to understand that Iraq is not only in a civil war, but in an ethnic⁵ based war between Sunni and Shia. He says that can help determine possible strategies to end the violence.

 
Michael O'Hanlon
"Generally when you have ethnic conflict you do have in some cases the possibility of resolution based on partition or a soft partition, because people are not really operating off an ideology⁶ where they the feel an absolute need to convince everyone in their country that they are right, and make everyone live under a certain system.  They primarily are seeking advantage for their own group," says O’Hanlon.  

Successful international intervention⁷ in other civil wars around the world, these analysts say, offer lessons the U.S. may apply to the situation in Iraq.   Jones says, in 1999 Australia and the U.S. played pivotal roles in ending the violence in East Timor.  He says the key was not military intervention but assisting the government in providing food and basic services, like electricity, to shore up popular support.

"So the lesson here is very stark,” says Jones. “Outside assistance can be provided to governments to fight insurgents⁸ in a civil war but if it does not have significant popular support and legitimacy⁹ in the end it will likely fail." 

O'Hanlon says in the 1990s NATO's military intervention forced Serbia to a negotiated settlement in Bosnia.  "In Bosnia, NATO basically said to Serbs, ‘We know you want 75 percent of Bosnia but you can't have it.  And if you try to keep that much we will keep attacking you, and we have now proven our willingness to do so.’  And under those circumstances the Serbs settled for less than they really wanted and you got some kind of resolution."

Some officials in the U.S. argue that the American military should not be in the middle of fighting between factions in Iraq, be it sectarian violence or a civil war.  But O'Hanlon says the U.S. must stay involved to prevent a catastrophic loss of life and regional instability. 

1 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

2 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

3 fulfills   

v.履行（诺言等）( fulfill的第三人称单数 )；执行（命令等）；达到（目的）；使结束

参考例句：

• He always fulfills his promises. 他总是履行自己的诺言。 来自辞典例句
• His own work amply fulfills this robust claim. 他自己的作品在很大程度上实现了这一正确主张。 来自辞典例句

4 territorial   

adj.领土的，领地的

参考例句：

• The country is fighting to preserve its territorial integrity.该国在为保持领土的完整而进行斗争。
• They were not allowed to fish in our territorial waters.不允许他们在我国领海捕鱼。

5 ethnic   

adj.人种的，种族的，异教徒的

参考例句：

• This music would sound more ethnic if you played it in steel drums.如果你用钢鼓演奏，这首乐曲将更具民族特色。
• The plan is likely only to aggravate ethnic frictions.这一方案很有可能只会加剧种族冲突。

6 ideology   

n.意识形态，(政治或社会的)思想意识

参考例句：

• The ideology has great influence in the world.这种思想体系在世界上有很大的影响。
• The ideal is to strike a medium between ideology and inspiration.我的理想是在意识思想和灵感鼓动之间找到一个折衷。

7 intervention   

n.介入，干涉，干预

参考例句：

• The government's intervention in this dispute will not help.政府对这场争论的干预不会起作用。
• Many people felt he would be hostile to the idea of foreign intervention.许多人觉得他会反对外来干预。

8 insurgents   

n.起义，暴动，造反( insurgent的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The regular troops of Baden joined the insurgents. 巴登的正规军参加到起义军方面来了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Against the Taliban and Iraqi insurgents, these problems are manageable. 要对付塔利班与伊拉克叛乱分子，这些问题还是可以把握住的。 来自互联网

9 legitimacy   

n.合法，正当

参考例句：

• The newspaper was directly challenging the government's legitimacy.报纸直接质疑政府的合法性。
• Managing from the top down,we operate with full legitimacy.我们进行由上而下的管理有充分的合法性。