Car Index Indicates Growth Potential High in Developing Nations

Car Index Indicates Growth Potential High in Developing Nations

 The International Monetary¹ Fund hints it may cut global growth forecasts again next month when it updates its projections² for the world economy.  The global lending institution says worldwide growth is weaker than expected due to continuing uncertainty³ in Europe and the US.  But while many agree the global recovery has been weak, some economists⁴ point to the rising number of automobiles⁵ in developing nations as a sign that the world's economy is moving in the right direction.  

Despite forecasts for a slowdown in the global economy, a little known economic indicator⁶ is starting to gain traction⁷. The so called "car index" is an attempt to measure the world's middle class based on the number of people who own cars.

Uri Dadush is head of the global economics program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "Ownership of cars is going to explode, is exploding at the moment in the developing world, a sign that the middle class is exploding.  And the reason for that is, is there are about 70 countries with a population of about three billion people who are approaching a threshold of income, about $4000 per capita where the middle class really increases very, very rapidly," he said. 

Dadush says the relative rise in average incomes means greater demand for non-essential goods. "Because that's the threshold of income where people begin to have enough to buy all sorts of things.  And it so happens that the things they will buy are the sorts of things that Japan, Germany and the United States excel at producing," he said. 

But the IMF says the economic downturn which began in 2008 has also led to reduced consumer spending in developed nations.  Managing Director Christine Lagarde says uncertainty over the debt crisis in Europe and the possibility that expiring tax cuts and massive government spending reductions could send the U.S. economy into a tailspin - remain the biggest risks to the global economy.

"We clearly still foresee a gradual recovery, but the global growth that we have forecasted 12 months ago, that we have revisited six months ago, is likely to be yet a little bit weaker than we had anticipated," she said. 

Add to that, rising food prices and increased volatility⁸ in the Middle East - and Lagarde says economic growth next year is likely to be slower than the group's earlier forecast of 3.9 percent. "Small decimal points for sure, but what is characteristic is that our forecast has trended downward," said Lagarde. 

Although slower growth in China and the challenges in Europe and the U.S. remain problematic, Dadush believes the prospects⁹ for global growth may be better than the IMF forecasts would suggest. "Notwithstanding the fact that they're going through a slowdown at the moment, the underlying¹⁰ drivers of growth in developing countries are extraordinary," said Dadush. 

Recent surveys show consumer spending in developing countries has increased three times faster than in advanced economies, with car ownership rising at a sharply higher rate than in developed nations.

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 projections   

预测( projection的名词复数 )； 投影； 投掷； 突起物

参考例句：

• Their sales projections are a total thumbsuck. 他们的销售量预测纯属估计。
• The council has revised its projections of funding requirements upwards. 地方议会调高了对资金需求的预测。

3 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

4 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 automobiles   

n.汽车( automobile的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• When automobiles become popular,the use of the horse and buggy passed away. 汽车普及后，就不再使用马和马车了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Automobiles speed in an endless stream along the boulevard. 宽阔的林荫道上，汽车川流不息。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

6 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

7 traction   

n.牵引；附着摩擦力

参考例句：

• I'll show you how the traction is applied.我会让你看如何做这种牵引。
• She's injured her back and is in traction for a month.她背部受伤，正在作一个月的牵引治疗。

8 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

9 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

10 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。