iPhone辉煌时代结束了吗

Investors¹ in Apple had already been braced² this year for a sharp, one-quarter decline that would bring the first fall in sales for the iPhone.

苹果(Apple)投资者今年原本已准备好迎接一个季度的iPhone销量严重滑坡，这一滑坡将导致iPhone季度销量首次出现同比下滑。

Now, though, they will have to get used to the idea that the severe slump³ will go on for at least two quarters. And the longer Apple struggles to revive the fortunes of its dominant⁴ product, the greater the concerns that the iPhone’s glorious days of growth are behind it.

然而，现在他们必须接受这一前景：这种严重滑坡将至少持续两个季度。苹果难以重振其主打产品iPhone的时间越长，人们就越担心iPhone销量增长的辉煌时代已成过去。

The depths of the trough in Apple’s core smartphone business became clear on Tuesday, as the company reported weaker results than expected for the first quarter of this year and issued a downbeat forecast for the second.

周二，苹果公布了业绩逊于预期的今年第一季度财报，并对第二季度业绩发出悲观预测，表明了该公司的核心智能手机业务有多低迷。

Rather than a steady recovery starting in the current quarter, iPhone unit sales could now be on track for an even bigger decline than in the first three months, when they fell 16 per cent year-on-year. The news sent Apple shares down more than 5 per cent by yesterday afternoon.

iPhone销量不仅不会从当前季度开始稳步回升，反而有可能遭遇比今年第一季度更严重的滑坡——今年第一季度iPhone销量同比下滑16%。这一消息导致苹果股价周三收跌6.3%。

It did not matter that Apple executives insisted that the weakness in the forecast was partly the result of a $2bn inventory⁵ adjustment that will mask the likely strength of consumer demand. At only $41bn-$43bn, Apple’s revenue forecast for the quarter ending in June was far enough below Wall Street’s expectations of $47bn to slice 8 per cent from the company’s stock price in after-market trading.

苹果高管坚称，对第二季度业绩的悲观预测在一定程度上是因为20亿美元的库存调整，这一调整将掩盖消费需求可能的强劲表现。这一解释于事无补。苹果预测的第二季度营收仅为410亿美元至430亿美元，与华尔街预期的470亿美元存在巨大差距，使该公司股价在周二盘后交易时段下挫8%。

The figures underlined what was already apparent: Apple is living in the shadow of its past success. The surge in sales following the launch of the iPhone 6, which began in September 2014, has left an acute hangover. And the longer it goes on, the more the pressure will grow on Apple to prove that it can still whip up fresh excitement for its ageing smartphone line when the time comes to reveal the iPhone 7 later this year.

这些数据表明一个已然显而易见的事实：苹果正处于过去成功的阴影下。iPhone 6发布后的销量飙升（从2014年9月开始）带来了严重的后遗症。这种后遗症持续的时间越长，苹果面临的压力就越大：苹果将于今年晚些时候发布iPhone 7，它要证明届时自己仍然能够重新激起人们对其日益老化的智能手机产品线的兴奋。

“We’ve hit an innovation plateau,” says Geoff Blaber at CCS Insight. “The iPhone can’t grow indefinitely.” Apple’s greatest challenge, he adds, is living up to the outsized expectations generated by its own success.

“我们到达了一个创新平台期，”CCS Insight的杰夫?布拉韦尔(Geoff Blaber)表示，“iPhone销量不可能无限地增长。”他补充称，苹果面临的最大挑战，是满足其自己的成功带来的过高期待。

According to Apple executives, however, there is nothing new in the iPhone’s current product cycle, even if the pullback has looked greater.

然而，苹果高管称，尽管这次的滑坡看上去更严重，但iPhone当前的产品周期并没有什么新鲜的。

The pause is very similar to the one seen two years ago, according to Tim Cook, chief executive. Then Apple followed a significant overhaul⁶ of the iPhone with a year in which it produced fewer changes. If anything, the upgrade rate by iPhone customers is better than it was then and the underlying⁷ picture remains⁸ healthy, he insisted on an analyst⁹ call following the results.

苹果首席执行官蒂姆?库克(Tim Cook)称，这种停顿与两年前非常相似。当时的苹果在对iPhone进行了一次大幅调整之后的一年里都没有多少创新。在公布财报后的分析师电话会议上，库克坚称，如今iPhone客户的更新换代速度反而要好于当年，基本状况仍很健康。

Mr Cook also brushed off suggestions that Apple was passing from being a growth company. Asked if it was time to rethink Apple’s position in the tech world, he said: “This too shall pass”.

库克还否认这种看法：苹果已不再是一家增长型公司。在被问及现在是否该重新思考苹果在科技界的角色时，他回答：“增长的停顿是暂时的。”

But there were enough signs in the earnings¹⁰ to make investors think twice.

但财报中显露了足够多值得投资者三思的迹象。

One was a slide in Apple’s Greater China segment, until recently its strongest source of growth. Though accounting¹¹ for only 25 per cent of total sales, the region was responsible for 60 per cent of the revenue decline in the first quarter. According to Mr Cook, however, mainland China was more robust¹² than those figures suggest, with end demand only sliding by 5 per cent after an inventory adjustment. The bigger regional decline, he added, was caused by lower sales in Hong Kong — a result, he said, of tumbling purchases by tourists.

第一个迹象是苹果在大中华区的表现——直到最近，该地区一直是苹果最强劲的增长来源。大中华区仅占苹果今年第一季度总营收的25%，但该地区占到苹果该季度营收同比减少额的60%。然而，库克称，中国内地市场要比这些数字显示的更为强劲，在经过库存调整后，终端需求仅下滑5%。他补充称，该地区较大幅度的下滑源于香港销量下滑；他表示，香港的下滑源于游客购买量下挫。

A hefty decline in overall iPhone prices also added to unease. With customers showing a preference for cheaper, older models, the average selling price fell by $49 from three months before, to $642.

iPhone整体价位的大幅下跌也加剧了人们的不安。由于客户显示出对价格更低的较老机型的偏好，平均售价较3个月前下跌49美元，至642美元。

Pricing is expected to come under more pressure, following the launch of the iPhone SE, a cheaper device with a smaller, four-inch screen designed to expand Apple’s reach into more parts of the smartphone market.

在iPhone SE发布后，预计iPhone定价将面临更大压力。iPhone SE是一款价格较低、屏幕尺寸较小（4英寸）的手机，旨在扩大苹果对智能手机市场的覆盖面。

If iPhone sales have been flagging this year, then there has been little to make up the difference. Apple’s other hardware products also turned in weak results in the latest period. The iPad continued its decline, with unit sales down 19 per cent from a year before, while a halving¹³ of revenues from the company’s “other products” segment from the preceding three months hinted at a big decline in sales of the Watch.

如果iPhone销量今年一直疲弱的话，没有多少别的产品能够填补空缺。今年第一季度，苹果的其他硬件产品也业绩不佳。iPad销量继续下滑，同比下降19%，而“其他产品”营收环比一半的降幅，暗示苹果Watch销量也大幅下滑。

Even sales of the Mac, which had held up during a broader slump in PC demand, registered a decline, with unit sales down 12 per cent.

就连个人电脑(PC)需求普遍低迷期间曾保持坚挺的Mac也不例外，销量同比减少12%。

Amid the broader pullback, it was left to Apple’s services segment to produce the one bright spot. Three months ago, most analysts¹⁴ paid little attention when Apple sought to shine a light on the services division, choosing to see it as a sign that the company was trying to shift attention away from the iPhone’s slide.

在普遍的业绩滑坡中，仅存的亮点就是苹果的服务业务了。3个月前，当苹果试图推介其服务业务时，多数分析师几乎没有关注，而是将其看作该公司为转移人们对iPhone销量下滑的关注而使用的障眼法。

Given that it still accounts for two-thirds of overall sales and has seen such violent swings, however, the fate of the iPhone is likely to dominate Wall Street’s attention for years to come.

然而，鉴于iPhone仍占苹果总营收的三分之二，而且出现了如此剧烈的波动，iPhone的表现在未来几年可能仍会是华尔街关注的重点。

1 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

2 braced   

adj.拉牢的v.支住( brace的过去式和过去分词 )；撑牢；使自己站稳；振作起来

参考例句：

• They braced up the old house with balks of timber. 他们用梁木加固旧房子。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The house has a wooden frame which is braced with brick. 这幢房子是木结构的砖瓦房。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

4 dominant   

adj.支配的，统治的；占优势的；显性的；n.主因，要素，主要的人(或物)；显性基因

参考例句：

• The British were formerly dominant in India.英国人从前统治印度。
• She was a dominant figure in the French film industry.她在法国电影界是个举足轻重的人物。

5 inventory   

n.详细目录，存货清单

参考例句：

• Some stores inventory their stock once a week.有些商店每周清点存货一次。
• We will need to call on our supplier to get more inventory.我们必须请供应商送来更多存货。

6 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

7 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

8 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

9 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

10 earnings   

n.工资收人；利润，利益，所得

参考例句：

• That old man lives on the earnings of his daughter.那个老人靠他女儿的收入维持生活。
• Last year there was a 20% decrease in his earnings.去年他的收入减少了20%。

11 accounting   

n.会计，会计学，借贷对照表

参考例句：

• A job fell vacant in the accounting department.财会部出现了一个空缺。
• There's an accounting error in this entry.这笔账目里有差错。

12 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

13 halving   

n.对分，二等分，减半[航空、航海]等分v.把…分成两半( halve的现在分词 )；把…减半；对分；平摊

参考例句：

• You searched those halving your salary cut your enthusiasm. 你呈现，薪水减半降低了你的任务热情。 来自互联网
• Halving the repeater spacing made it possible to quadruple the bandwidth. 把增音机间隔缩小一半，就能使带宽增加三倍。 来自互联网

14 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。