埃尔多安应回归温和治理模式

 　　Recep Tayyip Erdogan has emerged from the attempt to topple him with his grip on power apparently¹ unassailable. A week on from the failed coup², Turkey’s president has assumed emergency powers that will allow him to rule by edict; while some 60,000 people have been detained or suspended in a continuing purge³ of the public sector⁴. For the moment Mr Erdogan commands public support, both from the devotion of Justice and Development party (AKP) loyalists and the qualified⁵ backing of those who dislike him, but condemn⁶ the coup and fear the country’s descent into civil war.

　　土耳其总统雷杰普?塔伊普?埃尔多安(Recep Tayyip Erdogan)成功平息了一次试图推翻他的政变，他对权力的控制看上去稳如泰山。这次失败的政变发生一周后，埃尔多安启动紧急状态，他由此获得的权力将使他能够凭一己命令实行统治；与此同时，约60000人在对公共部门的持续清洗中被捕或停职。眼下埃尔多安获得了公众支持，既包括土耳其正义与发展党(Justice and Development party)中忠诚分子的拥护，也包括那些不喜欢他、但谴责政变并担心土耳其陷入内战的人的有保留支持。

　　A state of emergency can be justified⁷, given the brutality⁸ of the rebels, who launched air strikes on the capital and shot at civilians⁹. Some of them may still be at large. The question now is whether Mr Erdogan will use this occasion to form a new national consensus¹⁰ and rebuild Turkey’s fractured institutions, or take the opportunity to redouble repression¹¹ and realise his ambitions of fully¹² fledged autocracy¹³.

　　鉴于此次叛乱的残暴——叛军在首都发动了空袭并枪杀平民——进入紧急状态是合理的。一些叛军可能仍然逍遥法外。眼下的问题是，埃尔多安是会利用这一时机达成全新的国内共识，并重建土耳其千疮百孔的制度，还是利用此次机会加大镇压力度并实现他全面独裁的野心。

　　Ministers have made efforts to reassure¹⁴ the public, and international observers, that civil rights and the rule of law are not under threat. But the early signs are not promising¹⁵.

　　土耳其的部长们正努力消除公众和国际观察者们的疑虑，称民权和法治不受威胁。但是早期迹象并不令人乐观。

　　Suspected plotters have been paraded before the cameras visibly battered¹⁶. So many young soldiers have been rounded up that school gyms have been commandeered to house them. There is no sign yet that Turkey will be able to supply the hard evidence the US will require if it is to answer a request to extradite Fethullah Gulen, the cleric accused of inspiring the coup.

　　被怀疑参与阴谋的人列队走过摄像机，明显遭到过殴打。那么多年轻士兵被集中到一起，连学校体育馆都被征来容纳他们。若想让美国回应土耳其引渡费特胡拉?居伦(Fethullah Gulen)的要求，美国势必会要求土耳其提供确凿证据，然而目前尚没有迹象表明土耳其能够提供相关证据。居伦是一名教士，被指控煽动了此次政变。

　　Yet Mr Erdogan has made no secret of his desire to reinstate the death penalty, which would end any fiction of EU accession and would be in breach¹⁷ of Turkey’s own constitution if applied¹⁸ retrospectively. The president has already removed two constitutional court judges who might have stood in his way and can now bypass the court entirely¹⁹, should he wish to do so.

　　不过，埃尔多安并未掩饰他对恢复死刑的渴望。一旦土耳其恢复死刑，将终结土耳其加入欧盟的幻想，同时如果死刑追溯既往的话，将违反土耳其本国宪法。这位土耳其总统已经铲除了两名可能阻碍他的宪法法院法官，如今只要他想，他就可以完全绕开宪法法院。

　　What is clear is that the scale of the purge now under way will convulse Turkey’s already weakened institutions. So many judges have been fired that it is hard to see how the courts can handle the thousands who could face trial. All university deans have been forced to stand down. With almost a third of top-ranking officers under arrest, the army has lost the trust of Turkish society and will be badly weakened in the fight against Isis.

　　显而易见的是，当前这种大规模清洗将撼动土耳其本已脆弱的制度。这么多法官被解雇，我们很难想象法院如何应对成千上万面临审判的人。所有大学校长都被迫下台。由于近三分之一的高级军官遭到逮捕，军队已丧失了土耳其社会的信任，在与“伊拉克和黎凡特伊斯兰国”(ISIS)的战斗中将受到严重削弱。

　　Yet if the Turkish state is really riddled²⁰ with Gulenist sympathisers, Mr Erdogan must take some responsibility. For the best part of a decade, he allied²¹ with the Gulen movement to hound his secularist²² opponents. Now he has spent almost three years trying to root them out — without success, if his allegations against the US-based Islamic cleric are to be taken seriously.

　　不过，如果土耳其政府真的充斥居伦的支持者，那么埃尔多安必须承担一定的责任。在过去十年的大部分时间里，他与居伦运动结盟，共同打压他的世俗主义对手。如今，他已花了近3年时间努力根除他们——但未取得成功，如果他对这位居于美国的伊斯兰教士的指控值得认真对待的话。

　　Turkey’s economy is bound to suffer from the political instability. This heightens the risk of social fracture and institutional collapse²³. Mr Erdogan will worsen the situation if he invites confrontation²⁴ — for example, by calling for more street demonstrations²⁵ by his Islamist supporters, a dangerous move in a country whose immune system is already weakened by jihadism.

　　土耳其经济注定会受到政局不稳的损害。这增加了社会分裂和制度崩溃的风险。如果埃尔多安怂恿对抗，比如号召他的伊斯兰主义支持者举行更多街头游行，他将令局势更加恶化。在土耳其这个免疫系统已被圣战主义削弱的国家里，这是一种危险举动。

　　It is to be hoped he will recognise the urgency of conciliation²⁶, in order to focus on rebuilding the state. The past week has shown the value of a free press, which proved crucial in the defeat of the coup. The crisis offers Mr Erdogan an opportunity to return to the moderate style that served him well in the early years of his premiership, when Turkey’s economy and society thrived in an environment of greater tolerance²⁷. His fears of a military coup have proved founded, but the path to autocracy is more perilous²⁸ still.

　　我们只能期待，他将认识到和解对于集中精力重建国家的紧迫性。过去一周已显示了言论自由的价值——它在挫败政变的过程中发挥了关键作用。这场危机为埃尔多安提供了一个回归温和治理模式的机会。在他担任总理初期，这种模式曾给他带来好处，那时土耳其的经济和社会在更宽容的环境里蒸蒸日上。他对军事政变的担心被证明是合理的，但走向独裁会更危险。

1 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

2 coup   

n.政变；突然而成功的行动

参考例句：

• The monarch was ousted by a military coup.那君主被军事政变者废黜了。
• That government was overthrown in a military coup three years ago.那个政府在3年前的军事政变中被推翻。

3 purge   

n.整肃，清除，泻药，净化；vt.净化，清除，摆脱；vi.清除，通便，腹泻，变得清洁

参考例句：

• The new president carried out a purge of disloyal army officers.新总统对不忠诚的军官进行了清洗。
• The mayoral candidate has promised to purge the police department.市长候选人答应清洗警察部门。

4 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

5 qualified   

adj.合格的，有资格的，胜任的，有限制的

参考例句：

• He is qualified as a complete man of letters.他有资格当真正的文学家。
• We must note that we still lack qualified specialists.我们必须看到我们还缺乏有资质的专家。

6 condemn   

vt.谴责，指责；宣判(罪犯)，判刑

参考例句：

• Some praise him,whereas others condemn him.有些人赞扬他，而有些人谴责他。
• We mustn't condemn him on mere suppositions.我们不可全凭臆测来指责他。

7 justified   

a.正当的，有理的

参考例句：

• She felt fully justified in asking for her money back. 她认为有充分的理由要求退款。
• The prisoner has certainly justified his claims by his actions. 那个囚犯确实已用自己的行动表明他的要求是正当的。

8 brutality   

n.野蛮的行为，残忍，野蛮

参考例句：

• The brutality of the crime has appalled the public. 罪行之残暴使公众大为震惊。
• a general who was infamous for his brutality 因残忍而恶名昭彰的将军

9 civilians   

平民，百姓( civilian的名词复数 )； 老百姓

参考例句：

• the bloody massacre of innocent civilians 对无辜平民的血腥屠杀
• At least 300 civilians are unaccounted for after the bombing raids. 遭轰炸袭击之后，至少有300名平民下落不明。

10 consensus   

n.(意见等的)一致，一致同意，共识

参考例句：

• Can we reach a consensus on this issue?我们能在这个问题上取得一致意见吗？
• What is the consensus of opinion at the afternoon meeting?下午会议上一致的意见是什么？

11 repression   

n.镇压，抑制，抑压

参考例句：

• The repression of your true feelings is harmful to your health.压抑你的真实感情有害健康。
• This touched off a new storm against violent repression.这引起了反对暴力镇压的新风暴。

12 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

13 autocracy   

n.独裁政治，独裁政府

参考例句：

• The revolution caused the overthrow of the autocracy.这场革命导致了独裁政体的结束。
• Many poor countries are abandoning autocracy.很多贫穷国家都在放弃独裁统治。

14 reassure   

v.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• This seemed to reassure him and he continued more confidently.这似乎使他放心一点，于是他更有信心地继续说了下去。
• The airline tried to reassure the customers that the planes were safe.航空公司尽力让乘客相信飞机是安全的。

15 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

16 battered   

adj.磨损的；v.连续猛击；磨损

参考例句：

• He drove up in a battered old car.他开着一辆又老又破的旧车。
• The world was brutally battered but it survived.这个世界遭受了惨重的创伤,但它还是生存下来了。

17 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

18 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

19 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

20 riddled   

adj.布满的；充斥的；泛滥的v.解谜，出谜题(riddle的过去分词形式)

参考例句：

• The beams are riddled with woodworm. 这些木梁被蛀虫蛀得都是洞。
• The bodies of the hostages were found riddled with bullets. 在人质的尸体上发现了很多弹孔。 来自《简明英汉词典》

21 allied   

adj.协约国的；同盟国的

参考例句：

• Britain was allied with the United States many times in history.历史上英国曾多次与美国结盟。
• Allied forces sustained heavy losses in the first few weeks of the campaign.同盟国在最初几周内遭受了巨大的损失。

22 secularist   

n.现世主义者，世俗主义者；宗教与教育分离论者

参考例句：

23 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

24 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

25 demonstrations   

证明( demonstration的名词复数 )； 表明； 表达； 游行示威

参考例句：

• Lectures will be interspersed with practical demonstrations. 讲课中将不时插入实际示范。
• The new military government has banned strikes and demonstrations. 新的军人政府禁止罢工和示威活动。

26 conciliation   

n.调解，调停

参考例句：

• By conciliation,cooperation is established.通过调解，友好合作关系得以确立。
• Their attempts at conciliation had failed and both sides were once again in dispute.他们进行调停的努力失败了，双方再次陷入争吵。

27 tolerance   

n.宽容；容忍，忍受；耐药力；公差

参考例句：

• Tolerance is one of his strengths.宽容是他的一个优点。
• Human beings have limited tolerance of noise.人类对噪音的忍耐力有限。

28 perilous   

adj.危险的，冒险的

参考例句：

• The journey through the jungle was perilous.穿过丛林的旅行充满了危险。
• We have been carried in safety through a perilous crisis.历经一连串危机，我们如今已安然无恙。