美元升息加大中国经济管理难度

 　　For the second year running, the US Federal Reserve has rudely interrupted the Chinese Communist party’s annual economic planning meeting, which ends today.

　　美联储(Fed)连续第二年不客气地打断中国共产党的年度经济规划会议。今年的中央经济工作会议将于今日结束。

　　During last year’s Central Economic Work Conference, the Fed raised interest rates for the first time in a decade. This week the US central bank not only raised rates again but also hinted at three more increases next year, adding to pressure on Chinese officials already struggling to contain capital flight.

　　去年中央经济工作会议期间，美联储进行了10年来的首次加息。本周，美联储不仅再度上调利率，还暗示明年再加息三次，这加大了本已疲于遏止资本外流的中国官员的压力。

　　The rise and the prospect¹ of further tightening² next year mark a potential turning point for the world’s two largest economies. Over the past decade, high yields compared with rock-bottom Fed interest rates have drawn³ foreign capital into China. This fuelled the renminbi’s decade-long, 37 per cent appreciation⁴ against the dollar, which peaked in January 2014.

　　对全球最大两个经济体而言，此次加息和明年进一步收紧的前景标志着一个潜在转折点。过去10年里，相对美联储极低利率的高收益率吸引了大量境外资本进入中国。这推动了人民币对美元在10年里升值37%，在2014年1月见顶。

　　But those “hot money” flows are now moving in reverse as the Sino-US rate differential narrows. Aggressive Fed tightening could even one day cause the differential to flip⁵, with bigger yields potentially on offer in the US.

　　但随着中美两国利差缩小，这些“热钱”如今正反向流动。美联储激进的收紧行动有朝一日甚至可能导致利差反转，美国提供更高的收益率。

　　As such, an already delicate balancing act for Beijing has grown still more difficult as Chinese officials try to stem the renminbi’s fall against the dollar without choking growth or raising Chinese companies’ already high debt burdens.

　　因此，北京方面本已脆弱的平衡之举将变得更加困难——中国官员试图在不扼杀经济增长或增加中国企业本已沉重的债务负担的情况下，遏止人民币对美元贬值。

　　Some analysts⁶ think the People’s Bank of China may raise rates itself — something it has not done since 2011.

　　一些分析人士认为，中国人民银行(PBoC)可能选择加息——这将是自2011年以来首次。

　　Jeremy Stevens, an economist⁷ at Standard Bank in Beijing, says there is now an “outside risk” of a rate rise next year by the PBoC. The catalyst⁸ for such a counter-intuitive decision — China’s economy is growing at its slowest annual pace in a quarter of a century — could be the renminbi, which has fallen more than 6 per cent against the dollar this year with further to go.

　　标准银行(Standard Bank)驻北京经济学家杰里米.斯蒂芬斯(Jeremy Stevens)表示，现在的“外围风险”之一是中国央行明年加息。中国经济增速已降至25年来最低水平，这样一个与正常预期相反的决定的催化剂可能是人民币，今年以来人民币对美元贬值逾6%，且贬值还在继续。

　　Yesterday the PBoC set the renminbi’s daily dollar “reference rate” at 6.93. “It wouldn’t shock me if the renminbi is at 7.3 or 7.4 by March,” Mr Stevens says. “At some point they have to decide to do something to support the currency.”

　　昨日，中国央行将人民币对美元“参考汇率”设在1美元兑6.93元人民币。“如果到明年3月，人民币对美元贬值至1美元兑7.3或7.4元人民币，我不会感到震惊，”斯蒂芬斯说，“在某一个时间点，他们不得不决定出手支撑人民币。”

　　The Fed’s move is a reminder⁹ of the many risks Beijing faces in the wake of Donald Trump¹⁰’s surprise victory in last month’s US presidential election.

　　美联储此举提醒世人，在唐纳德.特朗普(Donald Trump)上月出乎意料赢得美国总统大选之后，北京面临着诸多风险。

　　Most assessments¹¹ of “Trump risk” in Beijing have focused on the president-elect’s disregard for the “One China” policy that has been a central pillar of Sino-US relations for more than four decades.

　　北京方面对“特朗普风险”的多数评估迄今都聚焦于这位当选总统对“一个中国”政策的无视，该项政策是40多年来中美关系的中心支柱。

　　But the Fed’s suggestion that there could be three further rate rises next year shows that, for China, the greatest shocks from Mr Trump’s victory may instead stem from the inflationary consequences of his promised tax cuts and infrastructure¹² stimulus¹³.

　　但美联储明年可能再加息三次表明，对中国来说，特朗普胜选带来的最大冲击可能源于他承诺的减税和基础设施刺激计划的通胀后果。

　　Even before the economic ramifications¹⁴ of Mr Trump’s victory began to be digested, Beijing moved last month to stem outflows by implementing¹⁵ a series of capital controls. In its attempt to keep the renminbi from falling too far, too fast against the dollar, China’s central bank has also been selling down its forex reserves, which have fallen 25 per cent to $3tn since early 2014.

　　即使在特朗普当选的经济影响还没开始得到消化之前，北京方面上月已实施一系列资本管制措施以遏止资本外流。为了让人民币兑美元不致跌得太多、太快，中国央行也一直在抛售外汇储备。自2014年初以来，中国外汇储备已经减少了25%，至3万亿美元。

　　As bond and currency markets factor in expectations of higher US growth and inflation under Mr Trump, the pressure is continuing to build.

　　随着债市和汇市计入特朗普上任后更高的美国经济增长和通胀预期，上述压力仍在增加。

　　“The US yield is moving up, putting pressure on renminbi and capital outflows,” says Wang Tao, China economist at UBS in Hong Kong. “That tightens¹⁶ domestic liquidity¹⁷, which the PBoC has not fully¹⁸ offset¹⁹, partly out of concerns about the exchange rate.”

　　瑞银(UBS)驻香港中国经济学家汪涛表示：“美国收益率正在上升，给人民币和资本外流带来压力。这收紧了国内流动性，而中国央行尚未完全抵消这种情况，部分原因是担心汇率。”

　　The PBoC has guided Chinese money-market rates higher in recent weeks, partly in anticipation²⁰ of the Fed move. “Monetary²¹ conditions in China have tightened²² without a rate hike,” notes Chen Long at Gavekal Dragonomics.

　　中国央行最近几周在指引中国货币市场利率上升，部分原因是预期美联储将加息。龙洲经讯(GaveKal Dragonomics)的陈龙指出：“中国的货币状况在没有加息的情况下就已经收紧了。”

　　Others are calling for more dramatic action by the central bank. This month Sheng Songcheng, a PBoC adviser²³, told a forum²⁴ in Beijing that the priority of monetary policy should be to boost market confidence in the exchange rate. He argued that the central bank should consider interest-rate rises to achieve this.

　　其他市场人士则呼吁中国央行采取更为戏剧性的行动。中国央行顾问盛松成本月在北京一个论坛上表示，货币政策的重点应该是提振市场对汇率的信心。他认为中国央行应考虑加息来做到这一点。

　　Zhu Ning, professor of finance at Tsinghua University, says expectations of a Chinese rate increase have “become more mainstream” over recent months, principally because of “the strength of the US [economic] revival²⁵ and the tempo²⁶ of Fed rate rises”.

　　清华大学金融学教授朱宁表示，近几个月来，中国加息预期“变得更加主流”，主要是因为“美国经济复苏的力度以及美联储加息进度。”

　　Mr Zhu also points to inflationary pressures building at home. Some analysts expect that Chinese producer price inflation, after years of deflation, could be as high as 5 per cent by March.

　　朱宁还指出，国内通胀压力不断累积。一些分析师预计，经过多年通缩后，中国的工业生产者出厂价格指数(PPI)到明年3月可能涨至高达5%。

1 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

2 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。

3 drawn   

v.拖，拉，拔出；adj.憔悴的，紧张的

参考例句：

• All the characters in the story are drawn from life.故事中的所有人物都取材于生活。
• Her gaze was drawn irresistibly to the scene outside.她的目光禁不住被外面的风景所吸引。

4 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

5 flip   

vt.快速翻动；轻抛；轻拍；n.轻抛；adj.轻浮的

参考例句：

• I had a quick flip through the book and it looked very interesting.我很快翻阅了一下那本书，看来似乎很有趣。
• Let's flip a coin to see who pays the bill.咱们来抛硬币决定谁付钱。

6 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 catalyst   

n.催化剂，造成变化的人或事

参考例句：

• A catalyst is a substance which speeds up a chemical reaction.催化剂是一种能加速化学反应的物质。
• The workers'demand for better conditions was a catalyst for social change.工人们要求改善工作条件促进了社会变革。

9 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

10 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

11 assessments   

n.评估( assessment的名词复数 )；评价；（应偿付金额的）估定；（为征税对财产所作的）估价

参考例句：

• He was shrewd in his personal assessments. 他总能对人作出精明的评价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Surveys show about two-thirds use such assessments, while half employ personality tests. 调查表明，约有三分之二的公司采用了这种测评；而一半的公司则采用工作人员个人品质测试。 来自百科语句

12 infrastructure   

n.下部构造，下部组织，基础结构，基础设施

参考例句：

• We should step up the development of infrastructure for research.加强科学基础设施建设。
• We should strengthen cultural infrastructure and boost various types of popular culture.加强文化基础设施建设，发展各类群众文化。

13 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

14 ramifications   

n.结果，后果( ramification的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• These changes are bound to have widespread social ramifications. 这些变化注定会造成许多难以预料的社会后果。
• What are the ramifications of our decision to join the union? 我们决定加入工会会引起哪些后果呢？ 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 implementing   

v.实现( implement的现在分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• -- Implementing a comprehensive drug control strategy. ――实行综合治理的禁毒战略。 来自汉英非文学 - 白皮书
• He was in no hurry about implementing his unshakable principle. 他并不急于实行他那不可动摇的原则。 来自辞典例句

16 tightens   

收紧( tighten的第三人称单数 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• One set of provisions tightens emission standards. 一套使排放标准更加严格的规定。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Requires no special tools or fittings; hand tightens to relief valve outlet. 不需要专用工具或管件；用手将其紧固到安全阀上即可。

17 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

18 fully   

adv.完全地，全部地，彻底地；充分地

参考例句：

• The doctor asked me to breathe in,then to breathe out fully.医生让我先吸气，然后全部呼出。
• They soon became fully integrated into the local community.他们很快就完全融入了当地人的圈子。

19 offset   

n.分支，补偿；v.抵消，补偿

参考例句：

• Their wage increases would be offset by higher prices.他们增加的工资会被物价上涨所抵消。
• He put up his prices to offset the increased cost of materials.他提高了售价以补偿材料成本的增加。

20 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

21 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

22 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

23 adviser   

n.劝告者，顾问

参考例句：

• They employed me as an adviser.他们聘请我当顾问。
• Our department has engaged a foreign teacher as phonetic adviser.我们系已经聘请了一位外籍老师作为语音顾问。

24 forum   

n.论坛，讨论会

参考例句：

• They're holding a forum on new ways of teaching history.他们正在举行历史教学讨论会。
• The organisation would provide a forum where problems could be discussed.这个组织将提供一个可以讨论问题的平台。

25 revival   

n.复兴，复苏，（精力、活力等的）重振

参考例句：

• The period saw a great revival in the wine trade.这一时期葡萄酒业出现了很大的复苏。
• He claimed the housing market was showing signs of a revival.他指出房地产市场正出现复苏的迹象。

26 tempo   

n.(音乐的)速度；节奏，行进速度

参考例句：

• The boss is unsatisfied with the tardy tempo.老板不满于这种缓慢的进度。
• They waltz to the tempo of the music.他们跟着音乐的节奏跳华尔兹舞。