人工智能是一种“全新生产要素”

 　　Talk to a bunch of economists¹ and they will doubtless tell you that poor productivity growth is the scourge² of our age.

　　与一些经济学家交谈，他们几乎肯定会告诉你，疲弱的生产率增长是我们这个时代的灾难。

　　Lounge in the back of a limo with some chief executives, on the other hand, and they will enthuse about how new technologies are transforming corporate³ productivity.

　　另一方面，舒服地靠在一些首席执行官的豪华轿车的后座上，他们会热情洋溢地诉说新技术正如何改变企业生产率。

　　Track down some experts in artificial intelligence and they may well babble⁴ on about standing⁵ on the brink⁶ of a productivity revolution. If we ever reach the point of technological⁷ singularity — when computers outsmart humans — productivity growth will accelerate exponentially.

　　与人工智能领域的一些专家谈话，他们很有可能会喋喋不休地说着我们正濒临一场生产率革命。如果我们达到技术奇点（当电脑智慧超过人类智慧时），生产率增速将呈指数式加快。

　　From that moment, a computer superintelligence will rapidly discover everything left to discover. This Master Algorithm, as the author — a computer science professor at the University of Washington — Pedro Domingos calls it, will be the last invention that man makes. It will be able to derive⁸ all knowledge in the world — past, present, and future — from data.

　　从那一刻起，电脑超级智能将迅速发现留待发现的一切。正如华盛顿大学(University of Washington)计算机学教授、《主算法》(Master Algorithm)一书作者佩德罗?多明戈斯(Pedro Domingos)所说，这个主算法将成为人类的最后一个发明。这个主算法将能够从数据中获得世界上的一切知识——过去、现在和未来。

　　There does appear to be, to put it mildly, something of a “productivity paradox”. Can all three stories be true? Quite possibly, yes.

　　说得婉转些，其中似乎确实存在某种“生产率悖论”。这3个故事有可能全部为真吗？很有可能，是的。

　　Hype, of course, is not an alien phenomenon in the tech industry. At present, we are a very, very long way from technological singularity and opinion is divided about whether we will ever reach it. It is worth noting, though, that some (younger) researchers in the field are convinced they will achieve it in their lifetimes.

　　当然，在科技行业，天花乱坠的宣传并不新鲜。目前，我们距离技术奇点还相当遥远，关于我们达到这个奇点的那一天会不会到来，人们还没有达成一致。然而，我们有必要注意到，该领域有些（较年轻）的研究人员相信，他们将在他们的有生之年迎来这一刻。

　　Yet even the application of narrow, domain-specific AI that exists today is producing startling results as the big tech companies — Google, Microsoft and IBM — pour money into the field. For a glimpse of what is possible, it is worth checking in with BenevolentAI, a London start-up attempting to revolutionise medical research.

　　然而，即便是目前存在的狭窄、针对特定领域的人工智能应用也在产生惊人的结果——大型科技公司（谷歌(Google)、微软(Microsoft)和IBM）正在该领域投入资金。要了解未来可能发生的事情，我们有必要关注一下伦敦初创企业BenevolentAI，该公司试图实现医学研究的革命。

　　人工智能是一种“全新生产要素”.jpg

　　Kenneth Mulvany, Benevolent⁹’s founder¹⁰, argues that drug discovery is in large part an information and data challenge that can be effectively addressed by AI. PubMed, the online medical research site, holds 26m citations¹¹ and is adding about 1m new publications a year. That is clearly more than any team of researchers could ingest in a lifetime.

　　BenevolentAI创始人肯尼思?梅尔文(Kenneth Mulvany)认为，药品的发现在很大程度上是一项信息和数据挑战，这些挑战能够由人工智能有效解决。在线医学研究网站PubMed拥有2600万篇文献，并每年新增约100万篇文献。这显然是任何一个研究团队所有成员一辈子都无法完全吸收的。

　　Benevolent has built a computer “engine” capable of reading and mapping such data and extracting relevant information, highlighting “conceptual hypotheses” in one field that can be applied¹² to another. “You can look at things on a scale that was unimaginable before,” Mr Mulvany says. “This AI-assessed component¹³ can augment¹⁴ human intelligence.”

　　BenevolentAI搭建了一个电脑“引擎”，能够阅读这些数据、对其整理归类并提取相关信息，突出显示一个领域中能够应用于另一个领域的“概念假说”。“你可以用以前想象不到的规模来看事情，”马尔瓦尼表示，“这种由人工智能评估的组件可以增强人类智慧。”

　　Benevolent is working with researchers at Sheffield university to investigate new pathways to treat motor neurone disease and amyotrophic lateral¹⁵ sclerosis (ALS). Early results are promising¹⁶.

　　BenevolentAI正与谢菲尔德大学(Sheffield university)的研究人员合作，以研究治疗运动神经元疾病和肌萎缩性侧索硬化症(ALS)的新方法。初步结果大有希望。

　　Richard Mead¹⁷, lecturer in neuroscience, says that Benevolent has already validated¹⁸ one pathway for drug discovery and opened up a surprising new one. “What their engine can do is look across vast swaths of information to pick novel ideas to repurpose.”

　　神经学讲师理查德?米德(Richard Mead)表示，BenevolentAI已确认一种药物发现的途径并开启了一种惊人的新途径。“他们的引擎可以浏览大量信息，以发现新的想法重新利用。”

　　It can also help personalise solutions for individuals according to their genetic¹⁹ make up. “We are really excited about it. The potential is incredible,” says Laura Ferraiuolo, lecturer in translational neurobiology.

　　它还可以帮助根据基因构成来制定个性化的个人解决方案。转化神经生物学讲师劳拉?费拉约洛(Laura Ferraiuolo)表示：“我们确实对此感到兴奋。潜力是惊人的。”

　　Some economists argue this combination of fast-expanding data sets, machine learning and ever-increasing computing²⁰ power should be classified as an entirely²¹ new factor of production, alongside capital and labour.

　　一些经济学家认为，迅速扩大的数据集、机器学习和日益提高的计算能力，这些都应被列为除资本和劳动力之外的一种全新的生产要素。

　　AI is creating a new “virtual workforce”, enhancing the productivity of human intelligence and driving new innovation. Moreover, unlike other factors of production, AI does not degrade over time. Rather, it benefits from network and scale effects. Every self-driving car can “learn” from every other such vehicle, for example.

　　人工智能正缔造一种新的“虚拟劳动力”，提高人类智慧的生产率并推动新的创新。另外，与其他生产要素不同，人工智能不会随着时间的流逝而贬值。它将受益于网络和规模效应。例如所有自动驾驶汽车都能从其他此类汽车身上学习。

　　A recent report from Accenture and Frontier Economics made the bold claim that the widespread adoption²² of AI-enabled technologies could double the economic growth rates of many advanced countries by 2035.

　　来自埃森哲(Accenture)与经济学前沿公司(Frontier Economics)最近的一份报告大胆提出，到2035年，基于人工智能的技术的普遍采用，可能会将很多发达国家的经济增速提高一倍。

　　It estimated that AI had the potential to raise the annual growth rate of gross value added (a close approximation of GDP) to 4.6 per cent in the US, 3.9 per cent in the UK and 2.7 per cent in Japan.

　　报告估计，人工智能有可能将美国、英国和日本的总增加值（与国内生产总值(GDP)近似）年度增速分别提高到4.6%、3.9%和2.7%。

　　Such studies are educated guesswork. Advances in technology are unpredictable. But some AI pioneers are convinced it could “change everything”, from material science to energy. “We are at the dawn of a new age of innovation,” says Mr Mulvany. “We already have human-augmented innovation. We will eventually have machine innovation.”

　　这些研究属于学术猜测。科技的进步是不可预测的。但一些人工智能先驱相信，它可以“改变一切”，从材料科学到能源。“我们正处在一个新的创新时代的开端，”马尔瓦尼表示，“我们已拥有由人类增强的创新。我们将最终拥有机器创新。”

　　Even the most gimlet-eyed of economists may soon have to accept that AI is affecting productivity in profound and possibly extraordinary ways.

　　甚至连目光最犀利的经济学家可能也很快不得不承认，人工智能将以深远且可能非同一般的方式影响生产率。

1 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 scourge   

n.灾难，祸害；v.蹂躏

参考例句：

• Smallpox was once the scourge of the world.天花曾是世界的大患。
• The new boss was the scourge of the inefficient.新老板来了以后，不称职的人就遭殃了。

3 corporate   

adj.共同的，全体的；公司的，企业的

参考例句：

• This is our corporate responsibility.这是我们共同的责任。
• His corporate's life will be as short as a rabbit's tail.他的公司的寿命是兔子尾巴长不了。

4 babble   

v.含糊不清地说，胡言乱语地说，儿语

参考例句：

• No one could understand the little baby's babble. 没人能听懂这个小婴孩的话。
• The babble of voices in the next compartment annoyed all of us.隔壁的车厢隔间里不间歇的嘈杂谈话声让我们都很气恼。

5 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

6 brink   

n.(悬崖、河流等的)边缘，边沿

参考例句：

• The tree grew on the brink of the cliff.那棵树生长在峭壁的边缘。
• The two countries were poised on the brink of war.这两个国家处于交战的边缘。

7 technological   

adj.技术的；工艺的

参考例句：

• A successful company must keep up with the pace of technological change.一家成功的公司必须得跟上技术变革的步伐。
• Today,the pace of life is increasing with technological advancements.当今， 随着科技进步，生活节奏不断增快。

8 derive   

v.取得；导出；引申；来自；源自；出自

参考例句：

• We derive our sustenance from the land.我们从土地获取食物。
• We shall derive much benefit from reading good novels.我们将从优秀小说中获得很大好处。

9 benevolent   

adj.仁慈的，乐善好施的

参考例句：

• His benevolent nature prevented him from refusing any beggar who accosted him.他乐善好施的本性使他不会拒绝走上前向他行乞的任何一个乞丐。
• He was a benevolent old man and he wouldn't hurt a fly.他是一个仁慈的老人，连只苍蝇都不愿伤害。

10 Founder   

n.创始者，缔造者

参考例句：

• He was extolled as the founder of their Florentine school.他被称颂为佛罗伦萨画派的鼻祖。
• According to the old tradition,Romulus was the founder of Rome.按照古老的传说，罗穆卢斯是古罗马的建国者。

11 citations   

n.引用( citation的名词复数 )；引证；引文；表扬

参考例句：

• The apt citations and poetic gems have adorned his speeches. 贴切的引语和珠玑般的诗句为他的演说词增添文采。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Some dictionary writers use citations to show what words mean. 有些辞典的编纂者用引文作例证以解释词义。 来自辞典例句

12 applied   

adj.应用的；v.应用，适用

参考例句：

• She plans to take a course in applied linguistics.她打算学习应用语言学课程。
• This cream is best applied to the face at night.这种乳霜最好晚上擦脸用。

13 component   

n.组成部分，成分，元件；adj.组成的，合成的

参考例句：

• Each component is carefully checked before assembly.每个零件在装配前都经过仔细检查。
• Blade and handle are the component parts of a knife.刀身和刀柄是一把刀的组成部分。

14 augment   

vt.(使)增大，增加，增长，扩张

参考例句：

• They hit upon another idea to augment their income.他们又想出一个增加收入的办法。
• The government's first concern was to augment the army and auxiliary forces.政府首先关心的是增强军队和辅助的力量。

15 lateral   

adj.侧面的，旁边的

参考例句：

• An airfoil that controls lateral motion.能够控制横向飞行的机翼。
• Mr.Dawson walked into the court from a lateral door.道森先生从一个侧面的门走进法庭。

16 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

17 mead   

n.蜂蜜酒

参考例句：

• He gave me a cup of mead.他给我倒了杯蜂蜜酒。
• He drank some mead at supper.晚饭时他喝了一些蜂蜜酒。

18 validated   

v.证实( validate的过去式和过去分词 )；确证；使生效；使有法律效力

参考例句：

• Time validated our suspicion. 时间证实了我们的怀疑。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》
• The decade of history since 1927 had richly validated their thesis. 1927年以来的十年的历史，充分证明了他们的论点。 来自辞典例句

19 genetic   

adj.遗传的，遗传学的

参考例句：

• It's very difficult to treat genetic diseases.遗传性疾病治疗起来很困难。
• Each daughter cell can receive a full complement of the genetic information.每个子细胞可以收到遗传信息的一个完全补偿物。

20 computing   

n.计算

参考例句：

• to work in computing 从事信息处理
• Back in the dark ages of computing, in about 1980, they started a software company. 早在计算机尚未普及的时代（约1980年），他们就创办了软件公司。

21 entirely   

ad.全部地，完整地；完全地，彻底地

参考例句：

• The fire was entirely caused by their neglect of duty. 那场火灾完全是由于他们失职而引起的。
• His life was entirely given up to the educational work. 他的一生统统献给了教育工作。

22 adoption   

n.采用，采纳，通过；收养

参考例句：

• An adoption agency had sent the boys to two different families.一个收养机构把他们送给两个不同的家庭。
• The adoption of this policy would relieve them of a tremendous burden.采取这一政策会给他们解除一个巨大的负担。