2015年经济学人 无将之军 谁能堪当奥巴马领袖之重任?

Lexington

An army without generals

If Barack Obama is not really the leader of the Democratic Party, who is?

THOUGH leading the Republican Party can be a trying task, many politicians want to have a go. Ambition swirls¹ so thickly in the halls of the 114th Congress, which was sworn in on January 6th, that it can almost be touched. Republican leaders, whips and committee chairmen, even the bosses of rebellious² factions³: all yearn⁴ to use their party's newly won control of the Senate and House of Representatives to make Barack Obama's life miserable⁵ and promote voter-pleasing conservative policies. As for the 2016 presidential nomination⁶, around a dozen Republican bigwigs are circling the starting-line of that contest, eyes agleam. The party is fractious, but it is filled with energy, and those who would lead.

The contrast with the Democratic Party is striking. The party remains⁷ a potent⁸ force in national politics, even after 2014's mid-term elections cost it control of the Senate and left it with fewer House members than at any time since 1946. But as Democrats⁹ head into the final two years of the Obama era, they resemble an army without a commander-in-chief, or even generals whom footsoldiers might follow into battle.

In Congress the Democratic leaders of the Senate and House are both in their 70s, as are many of their lieutenants¹⁰. Both are crafty¹¹ tacticians more than inspiring thinkers. Neither represents the future. Out in the country, Republicans can point to any number of governors who look like conservative champions, busy turning their states into laboratories for tax-cutting, government-shrinking experiments. Only a handful of Democratic governors similarly dominate their states' politics—the most prominent, Jerry Brown of California, is 76 years old.

Hillary Clinton will dominate her party's presidential primary if and when she says she is running. At the moment, she is a spectral¹² presence—freezing the 2016 contest without offering leadership. If she does not run, it is not obvious who could replace her. Some like to daydream¹³ about Senator Elizabeth Warren, a Wall Street-bashing populist who is to the left of centre in her home state, Massachusetts, which is in turn to the left of centre of America as a whole. Ms Warren says she is not running for president (she favours the present tense), which makes her more sensible than her supporters: as a matter of cold electoral maths, she cannot win a nationwide contest.

President Obama's relations with the Democratic Party are increasingly complicated. After a wretched 2014, during which he seemed buffeted¹⁴ by events, Republicans successfully made the mid-term elections a referendum on his competence¹⁵, prompting Democrats in some conservative states to try to disown him (in vain—most such Democrats lost anyway). Since then, Mr Obama has defied predictions of his imminent¹⁶ irrelevance¹⁷. He has used his executive powers to shield millions of migrants from deportation¹⁸, and started to dismantle¹⁹ the (remarkably ineffective) embargo²⁰ against Cuba. He has sketched²¹ out future policies that may define his legacy²², from new rules to protect the environment to global trade pacts²³. Republicans will try to thwart²⁴ many of his plans. Global events continue to menace him. But as much as his office permits, Mr Obama is setting the agenda.

Yet if Mr Obama is not quite the lame-duck president that critics foresaw, he is still a lame-duck leader of the Democratic Party. Partly, this is a question of differing incentives²⁵. Mr Obama wants a legacy. Democrats have future elections to win. As Mr Obama conceded to National Public Radio recently, such policies as unpicking the Cuban embargo are “frankly…easier” for a president at the end of his term. Mr Obama has a strong interest in achievements that can pass a Republican-held Congress. Two planned trade pacts, one with Asia-Pacific countries, the other with Europe, are a case in point. Republicans and some centrist Democrats want a deal. Left-wing Democrats and unions are appalled²⁶.

In part, the end of the Obama era is a moment of political clarity, exposing the oddly transactional nature of his ties to his own party. Mr Obama did not become the Democrats' champion by explaining what sort of party they needed to be. He won office in 2008 by offering a new, post-racial, post-partisan form of politics, buttressed²⁷ by the promise of his own life-story and brilliant electoral technology. He kept office in 2012 by turning out an “Obama coalition” that united the young, the poor, non-whites, gays, urban hipsters, unmarried women and affluent²⁸ liberals. Other Democratic politicians went along for the ride, while grumbling²⁹ that their president was disappointingly aloof³⁰ and risk-averse.

Breaches³² of decorum

Relations between Mr Obama and congressional Democrats are sourer than ever. In an unusual breach³¹ of decorum, the strains of the 2014 election prompted on-the-record grouching about the White House from a right-hand man to Harry³³ Reid, the Democratic leader in the Senate. A December budget crunch³⁴ saw Nancy Pelosi, the Democrats' boss in the House, fulminate against her own president's willingness to cut deals with Republicans.

Greybeards counsel calm. Presidents inevitably³⁵ see their clout³⁶ ebb³⁷ as successors' elections near, says Tom Daschle, who led Senate Democrats from 1995 to 2005. If Mrs Clinton runs for the nomination, she will become an alternative centre of power which will grow in importance. If she does not run, “there is a list of people waiting in the wings”, Mr Daschle soothes³⁸, offering as examples two very different senators: Ms Warren and Kirsten Gillibrand (the junior senator from New York and a politician of Clinton-level pragmatism, without the Clintons' experience).

Other Democrats are less sure, seeing a problem that goes beyond personnel issues. “It is a little confusing who is leading the Democratic Party right now,” says a member of Congress who hears nothing “galvanising” from Mr Obama, and “no energy, no excitement”, from congressional bosses. Put another way, Democrats feel leaderless because the party lacks big, compelling ideas. Someone may yet fill that void. It needs to happen soon.

1 swirls   

n.旋转( swirl的名词复数 )；卷状物；漩涡；尘旋v.旋转，打旋( swirl的第三人称单数 )

参考例句：

• Swirls of smoke rose through the trees. 树林中升起盘旋的青烟。 来自辞典例句
• On reaching the southeast corner of Himalaya-Tibet, It'swirls cyclonically across the Yunnan Plateau. 在到达喜马拉雅--西藏高原东南角处，它作气旋性转向越过云南高原。 来自辞典例句

2 rebellious   

adj.造反的，反抗的，难控制的

参考例句：

• They will be in danger if they are rebellious.如果他们造反，他们就要发生危险。
• Her reply was mild enough,but her thoughts were rebellious.她的回答虽然很温和，但她的心里十分反感。

3 factions   

组织中的小派别，派系( faction的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The gens also lives on in the "factions." 氏族此外还继续存在于“factions〔“帮”〕中。 来自英汉非文学 - 家庭、私有制和国家的起源
• rival factions within the administration 政府中的对立派别

4 yearn   

v.想念；怀念；渴望

参考例句：

• We yearn to surrender our entire being.我们渴望着放纵我们整个的生命。
• Many people living in big cities yearn for an idyllic country life.现在的很多都市人向往那种田园化的生活。

5 miserable   

adj.悲惨的，痛苦的；可怜的，糟糕的

参考例句：

• It was miserable of you to make fun of him.你取笑他，这是可耻的。
• Her past life was miserable.她过去的生活很苦。

6 nomination   

n.提名，任命，提名权

参考例句：

• John is favourite to get the nomination for club president.约翰最有希望被提名为俱乐部主席。
• Few people pronounced for his nomination.很少人表示赞成他的提名。

7 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

8 potent   

adj.强有力的，有权势的；有效力的

参考例句：

• The medicine had a potent effect on your disease.这药物对你的病疗效很大。
• We must account of his potent influence.我们必须考虑他的强有力的影响。

9 democrats   

n.民主主义者，民主人士( democrat的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The Democrats held a pep rally on Capitol Hill yesterday. 民主党昨天在国会山召开了竞选誓师大会。
• The democrats organize a filibuster in the senate. 民主党党员组织了阻挠议事。 来自《简明英汉词典》

10 lieutenants   

n.陆军中尉( lieutenant的名词复数 )；副职官员；空军；仅低于…官阶的官员

参考例句：

• In the army, lieutenants are subordinate to captains. 在陆军中，中尉是上尉的下级。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• Lieutenants now cap at 1.5 from 1. Recon at 1. 中尉现在由1人口增加的1.5人口。侦查小组成员为1人口。 来自互联网

11 crafty   

adj.狡猾的，诡诈的

参考例句：

• He admired the old man for his crafty plan.他敬佩老者的神机妙算。
• He was an accomplished politician and a crafty autocrat.他是个有造诣的政治家，也是个狡黠的独裁者。

12 spectral   

adj.幽灵的，鬼魂的

参考例句：

• At times he seems rather ordinary.At other times ethereal,perhaps even spectral.有时他好像很正常，有时又难以捉摸，甚至像个幽灵。
• She is compelling,spectral fascinating,an unforgettably unique performer.她极具吸引力，清幽如鬼魅，令人着迷，令人难忘，是个独具特色的演员。

13 daydream   

v.做白日梦，幻想

参考例句：

• Boys and girls daydream about what they want to be.孩子们遐想着他们将来要干什么。
• He drifted off into another daydream.他飘飘然又做了一个白日梦。

14 buffeted   

反复敲打( buffet的过去式和过去分词 )； 连续猛击； 打来打去； 推来搡去

参考例句：

• to be buffeted by the wind 被风吹得左右摇摆
• We were buffeted by the wind and the rain. 我们遭到风雨的袭击。

15 competence   

n.能力，胜任，称职

参考例句：

• This mess is a poor reflection on his competence.这种混乱情况说明他难当此任。
• These are matters within the competence of the court.这些是法院权限以内的事。

16 imminent   

adj.即将发生的，临近的，逼近的

参考例句：

• The black clounds show that a storm is imminent.乌云预示暴风雨即将来临。
• The country is in imminent danger.国难当头。

17 irrelevance   

n.无关紧要；不相关；不相关的事物

参考例句：

• the irrelevance of the curriculum to children's daily life 课程与孩子们日常生活的脱节
• A President who identifies leadership with public opinion polls dooms himself to irrelevance. 一位总统如果把他的领导和民意测验投票结果等同起来，那么他注定将成为一个可有可无的人物。 来自辞典例句

18 deportation   

n.驱逐，放逐

参考例句：

• The government issued a deportation order against the four men.政府发出了对那4名男子的驱逐令。
• Years ago convicted criminals in England could face deportation to Australia.很多年以前，英国已定罪的犯人可能被驱逐到澳大利亚。

19 dismantle   

vt.拆开，拆卸；废除，取消

参考例句：

• He asked for immediate help from the United States to dismantle the warheads.他请求美国立即提供援助，拆除这批弹头。
• The mower firmly refused to mow,so I decided to dismantle it.修完后割草机还是纹丝不动，于是，我决定把它拆开。

20 embargo   

n.禁运（令）；vt.对...实行禁运，禁止（通商）

参考例句：

• This country put an oil embargo on an enemy country.该国对敌国实行石油禁运。
• During the war,they laid an embargo on commerce with enemy countries.在战争期间，他们禁止与敌国通商。

21 sketched   

v.草拟（sketch的过去式与过去分词形式）

参考例句：

• The historical article sketched the major events of the decade. 这篇有关历史的文章概述了这十年中的重大事件。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He sketched the situation in a few vivid words. 他用几句生动的语言简述了局势。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

22 legacy   

n.遗产，遗赠；先人(或过去)留下的东西

参考例句：

• They are the most precious cultural legacy our forefathers left.它们是我们祖先留下来的最宝贵的文化遗产。
• He thinks the legacy is a gift from the Gods.他认为这笔遗产是天赐之物。

23 pacts   

条约( pact的名词复数 )； 协定； 公约

参考例句：

• Vassals can no longer accept one-sided defensive pacts (!). 附庸国不会接受单方面的共同防御协定。
• Well, they are EU members now and have formed solidarity pacts with members such as Poland. 他们现在已经是欧盟的一部分了并且他们和欧盟成员诸如波兰等以签署了合作协议。

24 thwart   

v.阻挠，妨碍，反对；adj.横(断的)

参考例句：

• We must thwart his malevolent schemes.我们决不能让他的恶毒阴谋得逞。
• I don't think that will thwart our purposes.我认为那不会使我们的目的受到挫折。

25 incentives   

激励某人做某事的事物( incentive的名词复数 )； 刺激； 诱因； 动机

参考例句：

• tax incentives to encourage savings 鼓励储蓄的税收措施
• Furthermore, subsidies provide incentives only for investments in equipment. 更有甚者，提供津贴仅是为鼓励增添设备的投资。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法

26 appalled   

v.使惊骇，使充满恐惧( appall的过去式和过去分词)adj.惊骇的；丧胆的

参考例句：

• The brutality of the crime has appalled the public. 罪行之残暴使公众大为震惊。
• They were appalled by the reports of the nuclear war. 他们被核战争的报道吓坏了。 来自《简明英汉词典》

27 buttressed   

v.用扶壁支撑，加固( buttress的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The court buttressed its decision. 法院支持自己的判决。 来自辞典例句
• The emotional appeal was buttressed with solid and specific policy details. 情感的感召有坚实的和详细的政策细节支持。 来自互联网

28 affluent   

adj.富裕的，富有的，丰富的，富饶的

参考例句：

• He hails from an affluent background.他出身于一个富有的家庭。
• His parents were very affluent.他的父母很富裕。

29 grumbling   

adj. 喃喃鸣不平的, 出怨言的

参考例句：

• She's always grumbling to me about how badly she's treated at work. 她总是向我抱怨她在工作中如何受亏待。
• We didn't hear any grumbling about the food. 我们没听到过对食物的抱怨。

30 aloof   

adj.远离的；冷淡的，漠不关心的

参考例句：

• Never stand aloof from the masses.千万不可脱离群众。
• On the evening the girl kept herself timidly aloof from the crowd.这小女孩在晚会上一直胆怯地远离人群。

31 breach   

n.违反，不履行；破裂；vt.冲破，攻破

参考例句：

• We won't have any breach of discipline.我们不允许任何破坏纪律的现象。
• He was sued for breach of contract.他因不履行合同而被起诉。

32 breaches   

破坏( breach的名词复数 )； 破裂； 缺口； 违背

参考例句：

• He imposed heavy penalties for breaches of oath or pledges. 他对违反誓言和保证的行为给予严厉的惩罚。
• This renders all breaches of morality before marriage very uncommon. 这样一来，婚前败坏道德的事就少见了。

33 harry   

vt.掠夺，蹂躏，使苦恼

参考例句：

• Today,people feel more hurried and harried.今天，人们感到更加忙碌和苦恼。
• Obama harried business by Healthcare Reform plan.奥巴马用医改掠夺了商界。

34 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。

35 inevitably   

adv.不可避免地；必然发生地

参考例句：

• In the way you go on,you are inevitably coming apart.照你们这样下去，毫无疑问是会散伙的。
• Technological changes will inevitably lead to unemployment.技术变革必然会导致失业。

36 clout   

n.用手猛击；权力，影响力

参考例句：

• The queen may have privilege but she has no real political clout.女王有特权，但无真正的政治影响力。
• He gave the little boy a clout on the head.他在那小男孩的头部打了一下。

37 ebb   

vi.衰退，减退；n.处于低潮，处于衰退状态

参考例句：

• The flood and ebb tides alternates with each other.涨潮和落潮交替更迭。
• They swam till the tide began to ebb.他们一直游到开始退潮。

38 soothes   

v.安慰( soothe的第三人称单数 )；抚慰；使舒服；减轻痛苦

参考例句：

• Fear grasps, love lets go. Fear rankles, love soothes. 恐惧使人痛心，爱使痛苦减轻。 来自互联网
• His loe celebrates her victories and soothes her wounds. 他的爱庆祝她的胜利，也抚平她的创伤。 来自互联网