2015年经济学人 房产问题 为何怨声载道?

China

Housing

Why grumble¹?

silver lining² to the housing cloud

JUST how bad is China's housing bubble? One important measure—the most important for those trying to get a foot on the property ladder—is affordability³.

Many believe that Chinese housing prices have soared well beyond the reach of ordinary people. There is some truth to that.

But a closer look at the data reveals a more complex picture.

The Economist⁴ Intelligence Unit, our sister company, created a city-level index to track the relation between housing prices and incomes across China.

Two points stand out.

First, the country's biggest cities such as Beijing and Shanghai, with populations of more than 10m,

are in a class of their own in terms of unaffordability (see chart; for full results go to our website).

Homes are markedly cheaper in almost all slightly smaller cities, even though they have millions of residents.

The price of a 100-square-metre house is on average 14-fold higher than annual household incomes in mega-cities.

For cities with populations of less than 10m, the price to income ratio is eight.

It thus makes sense for China's cities to tailor their housing policies to their own needs; some must focus on building more subsidised homes,

while others need to attract new residents to occupy their many homes now standing⁵ empty.

Second, regardless of city size, housing has become more affordable⁶ over the past four years throughout China.

At the peak, in April 2010, house prices on average were nearly 12 times household incomes; that has dropped to less than nine times today.

Prices are higher than in many developing countries, but they are not wildly divergent.

The apparent improvement in affordability does not tally⁷ with the perception of many Chinese.

But the official price data used in constructing this index show that people are adjusting to high inner-city prices by buying homes that are ever farther from urban centres.

That may not be especially painful: suburbs are increasingly well-connected by roads and railways.

The bigger concern, especially in smaller cities, is that China suffers from an oversupply⁸ of housing.

So many homes have been built that prices in such cities are now declining quickly relative to incomes.

That is desirable. But a big, sudden rise in affordability could pose considerable risks to the financial system,

which is heavily exposed to loans made to the property sector⁹. So far, at least, China has yet to experience the pain of a property-market crash.

1 grumble   

vi.抱怨；咕哝；n.抱怨，牢骚；咕哝，隆隆声

参考例句：

• I don't want to hear another grumble from you.我不愿再听到你的抱怨。
• He could do nothing but grumble over the situation.他除了埋怨局势之外别无他法。

2 lining   

n.衬里，衬料

参考例句：

• The lining of my coat is torn.我的外套衬里破了。
• Moss makes an attractive lining to wire baskets.用苔藓垫在铁丝篮里很漂亮。

3 affordability   

可购性

参考例句：

• Performance-Based Logistics Affordability: Can We Afford Categorical Conversion to Performance-Based Acquisition? 基于性能的后期的可承受性：能否担负得起向基于性能的采办的无条件的转变？
• There would be no crisis of affordability, as't for food or clothing. 就想食物与服装一样，因为供给没有危机。

4 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

5 standing   

n.持续，地位；adj.永久的，不动的，直立的，不流动的

参考例句：

• After the earthquake only a few houses were left standing.地震过后只有几幢房屋还立着。
• They're standing out against any change in the law.他们坚决反对对法律做任何修改。

6 affordable   

adj.支付得起的，不太昂贵的

参考例句：

• The rent for the four-roomed house is affordable.四居室房屋的房租付得起。
• There are few affordable apartments in big cities.在大城市中没有几所公寓是便宜的。

7 tally   

n.计数器，记分，一致，测量；vt.计算，记录，使一致；vi.计算，记分，一致

参考例句：

• Don't forget to keep a careful tally of what you spend.别忘了仔细记下你的开支账目。
• The facts mentioned in the report tally to every detail.报告中所提到的事实都丝毫不差。

8 oversupply   

n.供应过量；v.过度供给

参考例句：

• The market softened because of oversupply.市场因供过于求而疲软。
• Overexpansion of tea fields has led to oversupply.茶园过度扩张，使得市场上逐渐供过于求。

9 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。