2015年经济学人 货币政策 长期低息

Monetary¹ policy

A long low note

Why interest rates can be expected to stay low for years

CENTRAL bankers have a reputation for snatching away the punch bowl just as the party gets going.

So, almost as soon as Britain's economy started to recover, commentators² and markets started fretting³ about when interest rates would rise.

Mark Carney, the Bank of England's governor, has tried to soothe⁴ them with “forward guidance”,

in effect promising⁵ to hold off until the economy recovers.

But Mr Carney also whispered something else: that rates would stay unusually low even when they do budge⁶.

The punch bowl will go, he suggested, but there will still be plenty of booze around.

Since the Bank of England was founded in 1694 its main interest rate has bounced around an average of 5%.

It stood at 5.75% when the financial crisis struck in 2007; since 2009 it has been at a record low of 0.5%.

But as Britain's economy recovers, Mr Carney expects rates to settle below the historical norm, and points to market expectations of 2-3%.

That is only a shade higher than the bank's 2% inflation target.

The bank believes Britain's “equilibrium⁷ interest rate”—the rate needed to keep inflation and economic growth on an even keel—is being depressed⁸ by three things.

One is the ongoing⁹ fiscal¹⁰ contraction¹¹. With the state using a shrinking share of resources,

the private sector¹² has to expand faster to take up the slack. A lower interest rate is needed to achieve that.

The second has to do with the country's convalescing¹³ banks.

During the crisis the spread between the central bank's policy rate and the interest rates commercial banks charged their customers for loans jumped.

Although the spread has fallen since, it remains¹⁴ much higher than it was before the crisis.

So the Bank of England need not raise its rate so high to generate a given level of private-sector interest rates.

The final factor is the rest of the world. Britain's openness, through trade and finance, ties it to foreign economies.

The euro-zone crisis has hit the country's exporters and banks.

“Secular stagnation¹⁵”, a notion recently popularised by Larry Summers of Harvard University, might also be at play:

falling investment demand in advanced economies, combined with a glut¹⁶ of savings¹⁷ in emerging markets,

has pressed down on equilibrium interest rates throughout the world.

These pressures seem unlikely to abate¹⁸ soon. Britain's major political parties are all committed to eliminating the fiscal deficit¹⁹ over the next parliament.

Credit spreads are unlikely to shrink to their pre-crisis lows, which reflected an overly sanguine²⁰ attitude to financial risk.

The euro zone faces a lengthy²¹ slog back to health. And if, as Mr Summers suggests, global stagnation persists,

the downward pressure on Britain's equilibrium interest rate might even increase.

A persistently²² low bank rate would be bad for savers but a boon²³ for borrowers.

Britain's 9m or so mortgage-holders are sensitive to the bank's policy rate:

the average new mortgage is fixed²⁴ for just two years (compared with 27 years in America) after which it tends to track the bank's rate.

Matthew Whittaker of the Resolution Foundation, a think-tank, calculates that the difference between a bank rate of 3% in 2018 and a rate of 5% is that 620,000 fewer households would be in “debt peril”,

defined as spending more than half their disposable income on debt payments.

The prospect²⁵ of rates remaining low for years should also improve companies' behaviour.

British investment is startlingly weak at present—still 20% below its pre-crisis peak,

and lower than in any other G20 country as a share of GDP.

The expectation of more cheap finance, together with dwindling²⁶ spare capacity and rising demand, ought to entice²⁷ firms to build and buy.

The Bank of England predicts an extraordinary 43% rise in business investment by 2016, which would boost both demand and productivity.

But a low equilibrium interest rate should make Mr Carney nervous. Bank rates cannot easily be cut to below zero.

A new normal of 2-3% would thus leave the bank with little space to cut rates when future shocks hit.

Britain's emergency monetary experiments, such as quantitative²⁸ easing and forward guidance, are known as “unconventional”.

In time they could become part of the new normal, too.

1 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

2 commentators   

n.评论员( commentator的名词复数 )；时事评论员；注释者；实况广播员

参考例句：

• Sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 体育解说员翻来覆去说着同样的词语，真叫人腻烦。
• Television sports commentators repeat the same phrases ad nauseam. 电视体育解说员说来说去就是那么几句话，令人厌烦。 来自《简明英汉词典》

3 fretting   

n. 微振磨损 adj. 烦躁的, 焦虑的

参考例句：

• Fretting about it won't help. 苦恼于事无补。
• The old lady is always fretting over something unimportant. 那位老妇人总是为一些小事焦虑不安。

4 soothe   

v.安慰；使平静；使减轻；缓和；奉承

参考例句：

• I've managed to soothe him down a bit.我想方设法使他平静了一点。
• This medicine should soothe your sore throat.这种药会减轻你的喉痛。

5 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

6 budge   

v.移动一点儿；改变立场

参考例句：

• We tried to lift the rock but it wouldn't budge.我们试图把大石头抬起来，但它连动都没动一下。
• She wouldn't budge on the issue.她在这个问题上不肯让步。

7 equilibrium   

n.平衡，均衡，相称，均势，平静

参考例句：

• Change in the world around us disturbs our inner equilibrium.我们周围世界的变化扰乱了我们内心的平静。
• This is best expressed in the form of an equilibrium constant.这最好用平衡常数的形式来表示。

8 depressed   

adj.沮丧的，抑郁的，不景气的，萧条的

参考例句：

• When he was depressed,he felt utterly divorced from reality.他心情沮丧时就感到完全脱离了现实。
• His mother was depressed by the sad news.这个坏消息使他的母亲意志消沉。

9 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

10 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

11 contraction   

n.缩略词，缩写式，害病

参考例句：

• The contraction of this muscle raises the lower arm.肌肉的收缩使前臂抬起。
• The forces of expansion are balanced by forces of contraction.扩张力和收缩力相互平衡。

12 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

13 convalescing   

v.康复( convalesce的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• She is convalescing at home after her operation. 手术后她正在家休养康复。
• The patient is convalescing nicely. 病人正在顺利地康复。 来自辞典例句

14 remains   

n.剩余物，残留物；遗体，遗迹

参考例句：

• He ate the remains of food hungrily.他狼吞虎咽地吃剩余的食物。
• The remains of the meal were fed to the dog.残羹剩饭喂狗了。

15 stagnation   

n. 停滞

参考例句：

• Poor economic policies led to a long period of stagnation and decline. 糟糕的经济政策道致了长时间的经济萧条和下滑。
• Motion is absolute while stagnation is relative. 运动是绝对的，而静止是相对的。

16 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。

17 savings   

n.存款，储蓄

参考例句：

• I can't afford the vacation,for it would eat up my savings.我度不起假，那样会把我的积蓄用光的。
• By this time he had used up all his savings.到这时，他的存款已全部用完。

18 abate   

vi.(风势，疼痛等)减弱，减轻，减退

参考例句：

• We must abate the noise pollution in our city.我们必须消除我们城里的噪音污染。
• The doctor gave him some medicine to abate the powerful pain.医生给了他一些药，以减弱那剧烈的疼痛。

19 deficit   

n.亏空，亏损；赤字，逆差

参考例句：

• The directors have reported a deficit of 2.5 million dollars.董事们报告赤字为250万美元。
• We have a great deficit this year.我们今年有很大亏损。

20 sanguine   

adj.充满希望的，乐观的，血红色的

参考例句：

• He has a sanguine attitude to life.他对于人生有乐观的看法。
• He is not very sanguine about our chances of success.他对我们成功的机会不太乐观。

21 lengthy   

adj.漫长的，冗长的

参考例句：

• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。
• The professor wrote a lengthy book on Napoleon.教授写了一部有关拿破仑的巨著。

22 persistently   

ad.坚持地；固执地

参考例句：

• He persistently asserted his right to a share in the heritage. 他始终声称他有分享那笔遗产的权利。
• She persistently asserted her opinions. 她果断地说出了自己的意见。

23 boon   

n.恩赐，恩物，恩惠

参考例句：

• A car is a real boon when you live in the country.在郊外居住，有辆汽车确实极为方便。
• These machines have proved a real boon to disabled people.事实证明这些机器让残疾人受益匪浅。

24 fixed   

adj.固定的，不变的，准备好的；(计算机)固定的

参考例句：

• Have you two fixed on a date for the wedding yet?你们俩选定婚期了吗？
• Once the aim is fixed,we should not change it arbitrarily.目标一旦确定，我们就不应该随意改变。

25 prospect   

n.前景，前途；景色，视野

参考例句：

• This state of things holds out a cheerful prospect.事态呈现出可喜的前景。
• The prospect became more evident.前景变得更加明朗了。

26 dwindling   

adj.逐渐减少的v.逐渐变少或变小( dwindle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The number of wild animals on the earth is dwindling. 地球上野生动物的数量正日渐减少。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He is struggling to come to terms with his dwindling authority. 他正努力适应自己权力被削弱这一局面。 来自辞典例句

27 entice   

v.诱骗，引诱，怂恿

参考例句：

• Nothing will entice the children from television.没有任何东西能把孩子们从电视机前诱开。
• I don't see why the English should want to entice us away from our native land.我不明白，为什英国人要引诱我们离开自己的国土。

28 quantitative   

adj.数量的，定量的

参考例句：

• He said it was only a quantitative difference.他说这仅仅是数量上的差别。
• We need to do some quantitative analysis of the drugs.我们对药物要进行定量分析。