2015年经济学人 马克卡尼 英国银行新晋领导人

 

19

Mark Carney

马克·卡尼

I mean what I say

“言出必行”

The new governor is struggling to convince sceptical markets

英国银行新晋领导人正试图极力说服持怀疑态度的国内市场

CREDIBILITY is treasured by central bankers. It is after all why politicians, who patently lack that precious quality, have entrusted¹ the monetary² guardians³ with the job of taming inflation. But what happens when investors⁴ do not believe a supposedly binding⁵ central-bank commitment to keep interest rates low?

信誉对于央行行长们来说是极其珍贵的，而这也正是为何那些早已将个人信誉消耗殆尽的政客们委任这些“货币守护者”来遏止通货膨胀的原因。但当投资方不再信任央行曾信誓旦旦“维持国内低利率”的承诺的后果将会是什么？

The answer this week from Mark Carney, the Canadian governor of the Bank of England, was to set out again the case for the forward guidance which had failed to convince the markets when he first delivered it earlier this month. Speaking in Nottingham on August 28th he also announced a relaxation⁶ in banks' liquidity⁷ requirements to encourage lending. But Mr Carney's speech seemed unlikely to sway the sceptics. They doubt that the bank's base rate, which has been at a three-century low of 0.5% for over four years, will stay there for another three.

而这位加拿大籍英国银行行长马克·卡尼于本周作出相关回应，即再次利用他于本月前几日提出的相关明细着手处理该事——尽管卡尼先生首次提出该提议时在说服相关市场方面收效甚微。他于8月28日在诺丁汉的演说中宣称，将放宽银行的货币流通需求以此来刺激借贷，但该演说似乎并未打消投资方的疑虑，他们不断质疑银行的基本利率在四年之内一直保持三百年来的最低态势——0.5%仍将持续至下一个三年。

Mr Carney's task is tricky⁸ because the bank's forward guidance is about as clear as an insurance policy once the small print has been read. The crucial pledge is that the bank's monetary-policy committee (MPC) will not think about raising interest rates until the unemployment rate, currently 7.8%, falls to 7%. Since the bank's own forecast shows this will take until well into 2016, the MPC is in effect promising⁹ to sit on its hands for another three years. But that seemingly straightforward¹⁰ commitment comes with “knockout” clauses. If inflation becomes a threat or financial stability is being endangered, forward guidance will no longer apply.

鉴于英国银行之前的明细规定，与用极难阅读的小字印刷的保险理赔条款一般“清晰明确”，卡尼先生的该项策略实属明智之举，最为关键的是，英国银行下属的货币政策委员会（monetary-policy committee—MPC）在国家失业率由目前的7.8%下降至7%之前，将不会再提高利率，而由于银行预测显示该形式预计在2016年才会有所好转，若货币政策委员会（MPC）履行承诺，那么他们将会在接下来的三年内不再插手该事，然而委员会却道貌岸然地提出了所谓“淘汰”条款，即当通货膨胀构成威胁或国家经济稳定形势岌岌可危时，之前的规定将不再作数。

Mr Carney did not rely solely¹¹ on argument. The Canadian said that if market expectations of higher interest rates tightened¹² credit conditions and the recovery seemed to be falling short of the strong growth needed the MPC would “consider carefully whether and how best to stimulate¹³ the recovery further.” But that veiled threat seems unlikely to put the frighteners on the markets.

卡尼先生并不是单纯地以争论取胜。这位加拿大人表示，如果市场对于利率上升的预期致使信贷条件紧缩，并且经济复苏势头落于民众日益增长的需求之后，那么货币政策委员会（MPC）将会“认真考虑计划如何进一步刺激经济复苏。”但这包含威胁的潜台词似乎并未对经济市场产生任何影响。

Mr Carney is fortunate in taking over as governor as the economy makes an unexpectedly robust¹⁴ recovery after a prolonged period in the dumps. But his good luck is also snagging his pet policy. For if so much can change in a matter of months, guidance stretching out for three years is bound to be questioned.

在英国经济经历了一段长时间的低迷转而出现意料之外的强劲复苏势头之时，卡尼先生接管英国经济无疑是幸运的。然而有得必有失，机遇给他带来好运同时也限制了他政策的制定，但如果该政策规定在短短几月就奏效的话，那么是否其执行力能保证三年依然是一个未知数。

1 entrusted   

v.委托，托付( entrust的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He entrusted the task to his nephew. 他把这任务托付给了他的侄儿。
• She was entrusted with the direction of the project. 她受委托负责这项计划。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 guardians   

监护人( guardian的名词复数 )； 保护者，维护者

参考例句：

• Farmers should be guardians of the countryside. 农民应是乡村的保卫者。
• The police are guardians of law and order. 警察是法律和秩序的护卫者。

4 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

5 binding   

有约束力的，有效的，应遵守的

参考例句：

• The contract was not signed and has no binding force. 合同没有签署因而没有约束力。
• Both sides have agreed that the arbitration will be binding. 双方都赞同仲裁具有约束力。

6 relaxation   

n.松弛，放松；休息；消遣；娱乐

参考例句：

• The minister has consistently opposed any relaxation in the law.部长一向反对法律上的任何放宽。
• She listens to classical music for relaxation.她听古典音乐放松。

7 liquidity   

n.流动性，偿债能力，流动资产

参考例句：

• The bank has progressively increased its liquidity.银行逐渐地增加其流动资产。
• The demand for and the supply of credit is closely linked to changes in liquidity.信用的供求和流动资金的变化有密切关系。

8 tricky   

adj.狡猾的，奸诈的；(工作等)棘手的，微妙的

参考例句：

• I'm in a rather tricky position.Can you help me out?我的处境很棘手，你能帮我吗？
• He avoided this tricky question and talked in generalities.他回避了这个非常微妙的问题，只做了个笼统的表述。

9 promising   

adj.有希望的，有前途的

参考例句：

• The results of the experiments are very promising.实验的结果充满了希望。
• We're trying to bring along one or two promising young swimmers.我们正设法培养出一两名有前途的年轻游泳选手。

10 straightforward   

adj.正直的，坦率的；易懂的，简单的

参考例句：

• A straightforward talk is better than a flowery speech.巧言不如直说。
• I must insist on your giving me a straightforward answer.我一定要你给我一个直截了当的回答。

11 solely   

adv.仅仅，唯一地

参考例句：

• Success should not be measured solely by educational achievement.成功与否不应只用学业成绩来衡量。
• The town depends almost solely on the tourist trade.这座城市几乎完全靠旅游业维持。

12 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

13 stimulate   

vt.刺激，使兴奋；激励，使…振奋

参考例句：

• Your encouragement will stimulate me to further efforts.你的鼓励会激发我进一步努力。
• Success will stimulate the people for fresh efforts.成功能鼓舞人们去作新的努力。

14 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。