2016年经济学人 房价飙涨 泡沫为谁而破(中)

 

The results of this two-tier system have been meagre so far. The frenzy¹ in the biggest cities stems from the central bank’s steady loosening of monetary² policy over the past 18 months. Although warranted from an economic perspective, it was inevitable³ that low interest rates would drive asset prices higher. Initially⁴, much of the credit pumped out by banks ended up in the stockmarket, but following its crash last summer, property beckoned⁵ as one of the few decent investment options in China (capital controls, which have been further tightened⁶ recently, make it hard for Chinese savers to invest their money abroad).

这种分而治之的房地产政策目前看来收效甚微。大城市房价飙涨的根源是央行在过去18月来逐步放宽的货币政策。尽管该政策的目的是为了拉动经济，但低利率不可避免地会拉升固定资产价格。一开始，银行释放的大部分信贷涌向了股市，然而经历了去年夏天的股灾之后，房地产成为了投资者们为数不多的上佳选择（资本管制最近也逐步收紧，这让中国人很难把他们的存款投资到境外市场）。

For speculators looking at property, the excess supply in smaller cities was all too evident, so they turned instead to the megalopolises. Du Jinsong of Credit Suisse describes it as a form of groupthink. “Everybody—investors⁷, developers, policymakers and bankers—thinks that first-tier cities are safe,” he says.

对于把目光投向房地产的投机客而言，小城市的房屋供给过剩太明显，所以他们转而看向大城市。瑞士信贷的杜劲松把这种情况描述为集体迷思：“每个人——投资者、开发商、政策制定者和银行家——都认为投资一线城市更加安全。”

Even as the government tries to restrain the excesses, however, it does not want to snuff out the rally in the big cities altogether, for they tend to influence sentiment elsewhere. There are signs that this is beginning to happen. Housing prices started rising month on month in the biggest cities a year ago. In midsized cities (in China, those with populations of 5m-10m), prices have been rising for the past four months. In smaller cities (mere hamlets of 1m-5m), gains have been evident only for the past two months (see chart).

即使政府希望抑制这种过量投资，但并不打算把涌进大城市的各路资金全部赶走，以防他们对其他敏感领域施加影响。这种趋势已经可见端倪。大城市的房价在过去的一整年中连月增长；中等城市（人口在五百万到一千万之间）的房价在过去四个月持续增长；而小城市（人口在一百万到五百万之间）的房价只在过去两个月有明显增长。

If this upturn⁸ lasts, some investors reckon it will spur construction. Commodities used to build apartment blocks, such as iron (girders) and copper⁹ (wires), have recovered slightly from their recent swoon, partly in the hope that China’s property market is also stirring (see article). Indeed, a series of mini-cycles in the Chinese housing sector¹⁰ over the past decade followed this sort of pattern: rising housing sales led to new building starts, which in turn pushed commodity prices higher.

如果情况能持续好转，一些投资者认为它将会刺激建筑行业。如铁梁、铜线这类用于建造公寓的材料商品，都已渐渐从最近的低迷期得以复苏。部分以期中国房地产市场也将处于动荡。的确，中国房地产行业过去十年一系列小周期活动都遵循这种模式：房产销售上涨带动新建筑的开发，新建筑的开发反过来推动材料价格上升。

Figures from the China Index Academy, a data provider, show that the stock of unsold homes has decreased recently, from nearly 30 months’ worth of sales early last year to 15 now. “A housing market with rising volume and prices clearly does not support the view that, on a macro level, China’s housing market is oversupplied,” notes Liang Hong of China International Capital Corp, an investment bank.

根据中国指数研究院提供的一官方数据显示，未售房屋的存量在最近得以减少，从去年初近30个月的销售量，减少至目前的15个月。“这个存量和价格并升的房地产市场显然并不能从支持宏观上中国房地产市场产能过量的观点，”中国国际金融公司（投行）梁宏如是说道。

But there is a further vast increment¹¹ of supply on the verge¹² of coming to market, because developers slowed the pace of construction in recent years and in some cases halted it altogether.

但是大量的供房即将上市，因为开发商近年放缓了大兴土木的节奏，一些建筑都已全部停工。

1 frenzy   

n.疯狂，狂热，极度的激动

参考例句：

• He was able to work the young students up into a frenzy.他能激起青年学生的狂热。
• They were singing in a frenzy of joy.他们欣喜若狂地高声歌唱。

2 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

3 inevitable   

adj.不可避免的，必然发生的

参考例句：

• Mary was wearing her inevitable large hat.玛丽戴着她总是戴的那顶大帽子。
• The defeat had inevitable consequences for British policy.战败对英国政策不可避免地产生了影响。

4 initially   

adv.最初，开始

参考例句：

• The ban was initially opposed by the US.这一禁令首先遭到美国的反对。
• Feathers initially developed from insect scales.羽毛最初由昆虫的翅瓣演化而来。

5 beckoned   

v.（用头或手的动作）示意，召唤( beckon的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He beckoned to the waiter to bring the bill. 他招手示意服务生把账单送过来。
• The seated figure in the corner beckoned me over. 那个坐在角落里的人向我招手让我过去。 来自《简明英汉词典》

6 tightened   

收紧( tighten的过去式和过去分词 )； （使）变紧； （使）绷紧； 加紧

参考例句：

• The rope holding the boat suddenly tightened and broke. 系船的绳子突然绷断了。
• His index finger tightened on the trigger but then relaxed again. 他的食指扣住扳机，然后又松开了。

7 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

8 upturn   

n.情况好转

参考例句：

• Experts have forecast an upturn in the stock market.专家已预测股票市场价格有上升趋势。
• The economy is experiencing an upturn.经济正在好转。

9 copper   

n.铜；铜币；铜器；adj.铜(制)的；(紫)铜色的

参考例句：

• The students are asked to prove the purity of copper.要求学生们检验铜的纯度。
• Copper is a good medium for the conduction of heat and electricity.铜是热和电的良导体。

10 sector   

n.部门，部分；防御地段，防区；扇形

参考例句：

• The export sector will aid the economic recovery. 出口产业将促进经济复苏。
• The enemy have attacked the British sector.敌人已进攻英国防区。

11 increment   

n.增值，增价；提薪，增加工资

参考例句：

• Each increment of knowledge tells us more of our world.知识的点滴增长都会增进我们对世界的认知。
• She receives a salary increment each year.她每年得到加薪。

12 verge   

n.边，边缘；v.接近，濒临

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• She was on the verge of bursting into tears.她快要哭出来了。