2016年经济学人 婴儿的离奇流失 揭开持久生育低谷的谜团

 

Demography¹

人口统计学

The strange case of the missing baby

婴儿的离奇流失

As the financial crisis hit, birth rates fell in rich countries, as expected. But a persistent² baby bust³ is a real puzzle

正如人们所预料那样，金融危机的冲击导致发达国家的出生率下降。但持久的生育低谷才是一个真实的谜团。

HE IS not exactly leading by example, but Pope Francis wants more babies. “The great challenge of Europe is to return to being mother Europe,” he said last year, while suggesting that young people might be having too few children because they preferred holidays. Europe certainly lacks young souls, particularly in Catholic countries such as Italy and Spain. But the baby shortage is broader: mother America and mother Australia have gone missing, too.

他自己并非以身作则，但教宗方济各想要有更多的婴儿出生。他在去年说道，“欧洲所面临的重大挑战就是，恢复作为一名欧洲母亲的身份，”同时也暗示，年轻人也许不喜欢多生几个孩子，因为他们更喜欢假期。确实，欧洲缺乏年轻人，尤其是在意大利和西班牙这样的天主教国家。但婴儿短缺的范围更为广泛：美国母亲和澳大利亚母亲也越来越少了。

They were certainly present a decade ago. Although birth rates were low in the former communist countries of eastern Europe, and in traditionalist places where it is hard to combine work with motherhood—think Japan, South Korea and southern Europe—many countries were having a baby boom. In the decade to 2008, the total fertility rate (the number of children a woman can expect to have in her lifetime based on present patterns) rose in much of the rich world. In Britain it went up from 1.68 to 1.91; in Australia from 1.76 to 2.02; and in Sweden from 1.5 to 1.91. America even managed to reach the “replacement rate” of 2.1, meaning its population was sustaining itself, without taking migration⁴ into account.

在十年前，他们是确实存在着的。尽管在东欧的前社会主义国家，以及难以将工作与母亲身份结合的传统之地中，如日本、韩国和欧洲南部地区，出生率低下—但许多国家都经历过婴儿潮时期。到2008年为止的十年间，大部分发达国家的生育率均上升了（生育率是指在既有模式下，一位女性希望在其一生中生育的孩子的数量）。在英国，生育率从1.68上升至1.91；在澳大利亚，生育率从1.76上升至2.02；在瑞典，该指标从1.5上升至1.91。美国甚至达到2.1的“人口置换率”，这意味着，在不考虑移民的情况下，该国人口基本保持不变。

There were two reasons, says Tomas Sobotka of the Vienna Institute of Demography. First, women who had delayed having children while they studied and started careers hurried to the maternity⁵ wards⁶ while they still could. Births to women in their 30s, which had been rising gently for years, went up further in Norway and elsewhere. Second, fertility among women in their 20s stopped falling.

维也纳人口统计学研究所的托马斯·索博特卡表示，导致这种现象的原因有两个。首先，那些因为学习或者事业刚起步而延迟怀孕的女性都趁自己身体状况允许的条件下着急生育。这些年来，30几岁才生育的女性数量一直在缓慢增加，在挪威以及别的地方增长得更快。其次，20几岁生育的女性数量也逐渐减少。

The financial crisis abruptly⁷ turned the boom to bust. Countries in the European Union delivered 5,469,000 babies in 2008 but only 5,075,000 in 2013—a drop of over 7%. That was too much for Kimberly-Clark, the maker⁸ of Huggies nappies, which announced in 2012 that it would pull out of most of Europe. In America the fertility rate fell from a peak of 2.12 in 2007 to 1.86 in 2014. Ken⁹ Johnson, a demographer¹⁰ at the University of New Hampshire, estimated that America was missing 2.3m babies.

金融危机突然地将婴儿潮转变为生育低谷。在2008年，欧盟国家共有5，469,000名婴儿出生，而在2013年，仅有5,075,000名——下跌超过7%。这对于好奇纸尿布的制造商金佰利克拉克而言，实在是太多了。金佰利在2012年宣布将退出大部分欧洲市场。在美国，生育率从2007年的顶点值2.12跌至2014年的1.86。新罕布尔什大学的人口学家肯·约翰逊估计，美国已流失230万婴儿。

The crunch¹¹ was unsurprising: anxiety about jobs and money puts people off children. But a rich-world baby bust that began predictably turned into a puzzle.

这一窘境在人们意料之中：对工作和金钱的担忧使得人们推迟要孩子的计划。但原本可预计的生育低谷发生在发达国家却变成了一个谜。

1 demography   

n.人口统计，人口学

参考例句：

• Demography is the analysis of population variables.人口学是对人口变量的分析。
• It was once a rule of demography that people have fewer children as their countries get richer.按人口统计学的一贯规律，一个国家里的人民越富有，他们所拥有的孩子就越少。

2 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

3 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

4 migration   

n.迁移，移居，（鸟类等的）迁徙

参考例句：

• Swallows begin their migration south in autumn.燕子在秋季开始向南方迁移。
• He described the vernal migration of birds in detail.他详细地描述了鸟的春季移居。

5 maternity   

n.母性，母道，妇产科病房；adj.孕妇的，母性的

参考例句：

• Women workers are entitled to maternity leave with full pay.女工产假期间工资照发。
• Trainee nurses have to work for some weeks in maternity.受训的护士必须在产科病房工作数周。

6 wards   

区( ward的名词复数 )； 病房； 受监护的未成年者； 被人照顾或控制的状态

参考例句：

• This hospital has 20 medical [surgical] wards. 这所医院有 20 个内科[外科]病房。
• It was a big constituency divided into three wards. 这是一个大选区，下设三个分区。

7 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

8 maker   

n.制造者，制造商

参考例句：

• He is a trouble maker，You must be distant with him.他是个捣蛋鬼，你不要跟他在一起。
• A cabinet maker must be a master craftsman.家具木工必须是技艺高超的手艺人。

9 ken   

n.视野，知识领域

参考例句：

• Such things are beyond my ken.我可不懂这些事。
• Abstract words are beyond the ken of children.抽象的言辞超出小孩所理解的范围.

10 demographer   

n.人口统计学家

参考例句：

• Professor Antonio Golini is a demographer at the University of Rome. 罗马大学安东尼奥教授是位人口统计学家。 来自互联网
• Demographer William Frey says immigrants with young families will help keep the United States competitive. 人口统计学家佛瑞表示这些年轻的家庭会帮助美国保持竞争力。 来自互联网

11 crunch   

n.关键时刻；艰难局面；v.发出碎裂声

参考例句：

• If it comes to the crunch they'll support us.关键时刻他们是会支持我们的。
• People who crunch nuts at the movies can be very annoying.看电影时嘎吱作声地嚼干果的人会使人十分讨厌。