2019年经济学人 全球化放缓(3)

 

Trade is suffering as firms use up the inventories¹ they had stocked in anticipation² of higher tariffs³. Expect more of this in 2019. But what really matters is firms’ long-term investment plans, as they begin to lower their exposure to countries and industries that carry high geopolitical risk or face unstable⁴ rules. There are now signs that an adjustment is beginning. Chinese investment into Europe and America fell by 73% in 2018. The global value of cross-border investment by multinational⁵ companies sank by about 20% in 2018.

预期关税将会提高，导致企业会耗尽库存，贸易因而受到影响。预计2019影响会更严重。但真正有影响力的是企业的长期投资计划，因为计划开始降低对那些地缘政治风险较高或面临不稳定规则的国家和行业的风险敞口。现在有迹象表明，调整正在启动。2018年，中国对欧洲和美国的投资下降了73%。同年，跨国公司跨国投资的全球价值下降了20%。

The new world will work differently. Slowbalisation will lead to deeper links within regional blocs⁶. Supply chains in North America, Europe and Asia are sourcing more from closer to home. In Asia and Europe most trade is already intra-regional, and the share has risen since 2011. Asian firms made more foreign sales within Asia than in America in 2017. As global rules decay, a fluid patchwork⁷ of regional deals and spheres of influence is asserting control over trade and investment. The European Union is stamping its authority on banking⁸, tech and foreign investment, for example. China hopes to agree on a regional trade deal this year, even as its tech firms expand across Asia. Companies have $30trn of cross-border investment in the ground, some of which may need to be shifted, sold or shut.

新世界将以不同的方式运转。全球化放缓将导致区域集团内部更深层次的联系。北美、欧洲和亚洲的供应链正在从更近的地方采购。亚洲和欧洲大部分贸易已经在区域内进行，而这一比例自2011年以来一直在上升。2017年，亚洲公司在亚洲的海外销售额超过了在美国的销售额。随着全球规则的衰落，各种地区性协议和势力范围的不稳定拼凑，正在加强对贸易和投资的控制。例如，欧盟正在加强对银行、科技和外国投资的监管。尽管中国的科技公司正在亚洲各地扩张，但中国希望今年能达成一项区域贸易协议。其企业在亚洲有30万亿美元的跨境投资，其中一些可能需要转移、出售或关闭。

Fortunately, this need not be a disaster for living standards. Continental-sized markets are large enough to prosper⁹. Some 1.2bn people have been lifted out of extreme poverty since 1990, and there is no reason to think that the proportion of paupers¹⁰ will rise again. Western consumers will continue to reap large net benefits from trade. In some cases, deeper integration¹¹ will take place at a regional level than could have happened at a global one.

幸运的是，对于生活水平而言，这未必是一场灾难。洲规模的市场足够大，足以繁荣。自1990年以来，约有12亿人摆脱了极度贫困，而且没有理由表明贫困比例会再次上升。西方消费者将继续从贸易中获得巨大的净收益。在某些情况下，区域级的一体化程度将超过全球级。

1 inventories   

n.总结( inventory的名词复数 )；细账；存货清单（或财产目录）的编制

参考例句：

• In other cases, such as inventories, inputs and outputs are both continuous. 在另一些情况下，比如存货，其投入和产出都是持续不断的。
• The store must clear its winter inventories by April 1st. 该店必须在4月1日前售清冬季存货。

2 anticipation   

n.预期，预料，期望

参考例句：

• We waited at the station in anticipation of her arrival.我们在车站等着，期待她的到来。
• The animals grew restless as if in anticipation of an earthquake.各种动物都变得焦躁不安，像是感到了地震即将发生。

3 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

4 unstable   

adj.不稳定的，易变的

参考例句：

• This bookcase is too unstable to hold so many books.这书橱很不结实，装不了这么多书。
• The patient's condition was unstable.那患者的病情不稳定。

5 multinational   

adj.多国的，多种国籍的；n.多国籍公司，跨国公司

参考例句：

• The firm was taken over by a multinational consulting firm.这家公司被一个跨国咨询公司收购。
• He analyzed the relationship between multinational corporations and under-developed countries.他分析了跨国公司和不发达国家之间的关系。

6 blocs   

n.集团，联盟( bloc的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The division of Europe into warring blocs produces ever-increasing centrifugal stress. 把欧洲分为作战集团产生了越来越大的离心效果。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The policy of the two blocs was played out. 把世界分为两个集团的政策已经过时了。 来自辞典例句

7 patchwork   

n.混杂物；拼缝物

参考例句：

• That proposal is nothing else other than a patchwork.那个建议只是一个大杂烩而已。
• She patched new cloth to the old coat,so It'seemed mere patchwork. 她把新布初到那件旧上衣上，所以那件衣服看上去就象拼凑起来的东西。

8 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

9 prosper   

v.成功，兴隆，昌盛；使成功，使昌隆，繁荣

参考例句：

• With her at the wheel,the company began to prosper.有了她当主管，公司开始兴旺起来。
• It is my earnest wish that this company will continue to prosper.我真诚希望这家公司会继续兴旺发达。

10 paupers   

n.穷人( pauper的名词复数 )；贫民；贫穷

参考例句：

• The garment is expensive, paupers like you could never afford it! 这件衣服很贵，你这穷鬼根本买不起！ 来自互联网
• Child-friendliest among the paupers were Burkina Faso and Malawi. 布基纳法索，马拉维，这俩贫穷国家儿童友善工作做得不错。 来自互联网

11 integration   

n.一体化，联合，结合

参考例句：

• We are working to bring about closer political integration in the EU.我们正在努力实现欧盟內部更加紧密的政治一体化。
• This was the greatest event in the annals of European integration.这是欧洲统一史上最重大的事件。