2019年经济学人 贸易战争之大豆篇 (1)

 

"We've been gambling¹ up to this point," says Tim Bardole, a soyabean farmer from Iowa.

“到目前为止，我们一直在赌，”蒂姆·巴多尔，一名来自爱荷华州的豆农说到。

After the price of soyabeans crashed last summer, he held on to most of his harvest and waited for the market to recover.

自去年夏天大豆价格暴跌后，他留下了自己的大部分大豆收成，等着市场恢复。

But seven months later, and with large loans to repay, he sold up. "We decided² we'd better take what we have," he says.

但是七个月后，他偿还完大额贷款便把手头的大豆都卖掉了。“我们认为我们最好是见好就收。”他表示。

The cause of the crash was a 25% tariff³ on American soyabeans imposed by China, the world's biggest importer,

价格暴跌的原因是美国对出口中国的大豆征收25%的关税，中国是世界最大的进口国，

as one shot in the trade war between the two countries. Yet peace is supposedly in the offing.

这是美国在两国贸易战中的一击。但据推测和平即将来到。

The two countries are locked in negotiations⁴ over a deal, ahead of a deadline of March 1st that has been imposed by America

美国定于3月1日对中国产品加征关税，但在此期限之前两国仍在为达成一份协议进行谈判，

(though on February 19th President Donald Trump⁵ declared the timing⁶ to be flexible).

（虽然2月19日，唐纳德·特朗普总统宣布时间有所变动）。

That Mr Bardole cut his losses despite those talks is not that surprising.

尽管两国进行多次对话，但巴多尔赶紧脱手以免多受损失的做法并不奇怪。

Even if the tariff is lifted—which is far from certain—the past year's disruption will probably leave a permanent scar.

虽然免除了关税—目前并不能确定—但之前的破裂可能留下永久的伤疤。

The trade war caught American soyabean farmers at a particularly bad time.

贸易战争找上美国大豆农民的时机很糟糕。

They had just planted a bumper⁷ crop, encouraged by strong demand and a drought in Argentina, a competitor.

受竞争对手阿根廷干旱和需求强劲的鼓舞，他们刚刚种下了大批丰产作物。

When the tariff was implemented⁸ it was too late to switch to other crops such as corn.

关税实施时，转种其他作物，如玉米，已经太晚了。

Demand from China—which in 2017 accounted for 60% of American exports—collapsed. The result was a glut⁹.

中国的需求—2017年中国需求占美国出口的60%—暴跌。结果大豆供过于求。

To replace American beans China has ramped¹⁰ up its imports from Brazil, pushing up prices in South America.

为了替换美国大豆，中国已经增加了从巴西的进口，推高了南非大豆的价格。

Meanwhile the European Union, Mexico and even Argentina have been tempted¹¹ by low American prices—but not enough to replace lost Chinese demand.

同时，欧盟、墨西哥，甚至是阿根廷都被美国大豆的低价所诱惑—但这还不足以弥补中国需求的损失。

To help American farmers cope, Mr Trump's administration handed them a one-off payment of $1.65 per bushel ($61 per tonne).

为了帮助美国农民，特朗普政府为他们提供了每蒲式耳1.65美元的一次性付款（每公吨61美元）。

Without it Mr Bardole would have lost money on this year's crop.

没有这次补助，巴多尔今年的农作物会亏本。

He might have sold his crop anyway, but the support has allowed others to sit on theirs.

不管怎样他可能已经卖掉了自己的农作物，但其他人压下了自己的农作物。

Farmers will have 25m tonnes of beans in stock at the end of this year's selling season, according to an official estimate, up from 12m tonnes last year.

根据官方估计，今年销售旺季末，农民们将储存有250万公吨的豆子，多于去年的120万公吨。

1 gambling   

n.赌博；投机

参考例句：

• They have won a lot of money through gambling.他们赌博赢了很多钱。
• The men have been gambling away all night.那些人赌了整整一夜。

2 decided   

adj.决定了的，坚决的；明显的，明确的

参考例句：

• This gave them a decided advantage over their opponents.这使他们比对手具有明显的优势。
• There is a decided difference between British and Chinese way of greeting.英国人和中国人打招呼的方式有很明显的区别。

3 tariff   

n.关税，税率；(旅馆、饭店等)价目表，收费表

参考例句：

• There is a very high tariff on jewelry.宝石类的关税率很高。
• The government is going to lower the tariff on importing cars.政府打算降低进口汽车的关税。

4 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

5 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

6 timing   

n.时间安排，时间选择

参考例句：

• The timing of the meeting is not convenient.会议的时间安排不合适。
• The timing of our statement is very opportune.我们发表声明选择的时机很恰当。

7 bumper   

n.(汽车上的)保险杠；adj.特大的，丰盛的

参考例句：

• The painting represents the scene of a bumper harvest.这幅画描绘了丰收的景象。
• This year we have a bumper harvest in grain.今年我们谷物丰收。

8 implemented   

v.实现( implement的过去式和过去分词 )；执行；贯彻；使生效

参考例句：

• This agreement, if not implemented, is a mere scrap of paper. 这个协定如不执行只不过是一纸空文。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• The economy is in danger of collapse unless far-reaching reforms are implemented. 如果不实施影响深远的改革，经济就面临崩溃的危险。 来自辞典例句

9 glut   

n.存货过多，供过于求；v.狼吞虎咽

参考例句：

• The glut of coffee led to a sharp drop in prices.咖啡供过于求道致价格急剧下跌。
• There's a glut of agricultural products in Western Europe.西欧的农产品供过于求。

10 ramped   

土堤斜坡( ramp的过去式和过去分词 )； 斜道； 斜路； （装车或上下飞机的）活动梯

参考例句：

• With the arrival of George Lucas, the pace has ramped up. 随着乔治·卢卡斯的到来，速度大大加快。
• They also sold corporate bonds as the global financial crisis ramped up. 在全球金融危机加剧之际，他们还抛售了公司债券。

11 tempted   

v.怂恿（某人）干不正当的事；冒…的险（tempt的过去分词）

参考例句：

• I was sorely tempted to complain, but I didn't. 我极想发牢骚，但还是没开口。
• I was tempted by the dessert menu. 甜食菜单馋得我垂涎欲滴。