2019年经济学人 剑拔弩张:美国伊朗撕裂核协议(4)

 

The potential for miscalculation is large and growing. American troops are within miles of Iranian-backed forces in Iraq and Syria. Its warships¹ are nose to nose with Iranian patrols in the Gulf². America recently declared the Guards a terrorist group; then Iran did the same to American forces in the Middle East. Officials on both sides say their intent is peaceful, but who can believe them? America’s accusations³ that Iran has been planning to attack American forces or its allies in the Middle East are suspiciously unspecific. Violence by Iran’s proxies⁴ may be just the sort of provocation⁵ that leads America to launch a military strike. Mr Pompeo once suggested that he preferred American sorties to nuclear talks with Iran. Mr Bolton penned an article in 2015 in the New York Times entitled “To Stop Iran’s Bomb, Bomb Iran”. Now even Mr Rouhani appears to agree that the way forward lies with provocation and escalation⁶.

判断错误的可能性很大，而且还在不断增加。在伊拉克和叙利亚，美国军队距离伊朗驻扎部队只有几英里。在海湾地区，美国军舰和伊朗巡逻船针锋相对。最近，美国宣布伊朗防守部队为恐怖组织；在中东，伊朗也宣称美国军队为恐怖组织。双方官员都表示旨在维护和平，但何以让人信服？美国指责伊朗一直计划袭击美国军队或其在中东的盟友，这一指责含糊不清，令人生疑。伊朗政府的暴力可能挑衅了美国发动军事打击。蓬佩奥曾表示，比起与伊朗进行核谈判，他更希望美国出击。2015年，博尔顿在《纽约时报》上发表了一篇题为《停止伊朗制核弹，轰炸伊朗》的文章。现在，就连鲁哈尼似乎也同意，前进取决于挑衅和升级。

A nuclear Iran would spur proliferation across the Middle East. Bombing would not destroy Iranian nuclear know-how⁷, but it would drive the programme underground, making it impossible to monitor and thus all the more dangerous. The only permanent solution is renewed negotiation⁸. Mr Trump⁹, a harsh critic of America’s foreign wars, therefore needs to keep the likes of Mr Bolton in check. He will face pressure from hardline politicians at home and opposition¹⁰ in the region, not least from Israel.

拥有核武器的伊朗将刺激整个中东地区的核扩散。轰炸不会摧毁伊朗的核技术，只会让将核计划转入地下，使其无法监控，因而更加危险。唯一的长远解决办法是重新谈判。因此，严厉批评美国对外战争的特朗普需要控制住博尔顿这样的人物。特朗普将面临来自国内强硬派政客和该地区反对派的压力，尤其是来自以色列的压力。

Doing deals, though, is a Trump trademark¹¹. The president has shown an ability to change direction abruptly¹², as with North Korea. A new war is not in his interest, even if being hard on Iran is part of his brand. The Europeans can help him by urging Iran to keep within the deal—and condemning¹³ it if it leaves. Mr Rouhani, who spurned¹⁴ Mr Trump in the past, now says he is willing to talk with the deal’s other signatories if today’s agreement is the basis. That has so far been a non-starter for the Trump administration. It should not be. As the threat of a conflict grows, all sides need to head back to the negotiating table.

然而，特朗普的标志就是做交易。总统已经显示出突然改变方向的能力，正如其在处理朝鲜问题时展现的那样。虽然对伊朗采取强硬态度是特朗普的招牌，但是发起新战争不符合其利益。欧洲可以通过敦促伊朗遵守协议来帮助他，如果伊朗离开，欧洲还可以谴责伊朗。鲁哈尼过去曾对特朗普不屑一顾，现在表示，如果以今天的协议为基础，他愿意与该协议的其他签署国进行谈判。到目前为止，这对特朗普政府来说是不可能的。本不应如此。随着冲突威胁的增加，各方都需要回到谈判桌上来。

1 warships   

军舰，战舰( warship的名词复数 )； 舰只

参考例句：

• The enemy warships were disengaged from the battle after suffering heavy casualties. 在遭受惨重伤亡后，敌舰退出了海战。
• The government fitted out warships and sailors for them. 政府给他们配备了战舰和水手。

2 gulf   

n.海湾；深渊，鸿沟；分歧，隔阂

参考例句：

• The gulf between the two leaders cannot be bridged.两位领导人之间的鸿沟难以跨越。
• There is a gulf between the two cities.这两座城市间有个海湾。

3 accusations   

n.指责( accusation的名词复数 )；指控；控告；（被告发、控告的）罪名

参考例句：

• There were accusations of plagiarism. 曾有过关于剽窃的指控。
• He remained unruffled by their accusations. 对于他们的指控他处之泰然。

4 proxies   

n.代表权( proxy的名词复数 )；（测算用的）代替物；（对代理人的）委托书；（英国国教教区献给主教等的）巡游费

参考例句：

• SOCKS and proxies are unavailable. Try connecting to XX again? socks和代理不可用。尝试重新连接到XX吗？ 来自互联网
• All proxies are still down. Continue with direct connections? 所有的代理仍然有故障。继续直接连接吗？ 来自互联网

5 provocation   

n.激怒，刺激，挑拨，挑衅的事物，激怒的原因

参考例句：

• He's got a fiery temper and flares up at the slightest provocation.他是火爆性子，一点就着。
• They did not react to this provocation.他们对这一挑衅未作反应。

6 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

7 know-how   

n.知识；技术；诀窍

参考例句：

• He hasn't got the know-how to run a farm.他没有经营农场的专业知识。
• I don't have much know-how about engines.发动机方面的技术知识我知之甚少。

8 negotiation   

n.谈判，协商

参考例句：

• They closed the deal in sugar after a week of negotiation.经过一星期的谈判，他们的食糖生意成交了。
• The negotiation dragged on until July.谈判一直拖到7月份。

9 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

10 opposition   

n.反对，敌对

参考例句：

• The party leader is facing opposition in his own backyard.该党领袖在自己的党內遇到了反对。
• The police tried to break down the prisoner's opposition.警察设法制住了那个囚犯的反抗。

11 trademark   

n.商标；特征；vt.注册的…商标

参考例句：

• The trademark is registered on the book of the Patent Office.该商标已在专利局登记注册。
• The trademark of the pen was changed.这钢笔的商标改了。

12 abruptly   

adv.突然地，出其不意地

参考例句：

• He gestured abruptly for Virginia to get in the car.他粗鲁地示意弗吉尼亚上车。
• I was abruptly notified that a half-hour speech was expected of me.我突然被通知要讲半个小时的话。

13 condemning   

v.（通常因道义上的原因而）谴责( condemn的现在分词 )；宣判；宣布…不能使用；迫使…陷于不幸的境地

参考例句：

• The government issued a statement condemning the killings. 政府发表声明谴责这些凶杀事件。
• I concur with the speaker in condemning what has been done. 我同意发言者对所做的事加以谴责。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

14 spurned   

v.一脚踢开，拒绝接受( spurn的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• Eve spurned Mark's invitation. 伊夫一口回绝了马克的邀请。
• With Mrs. Reed, I remember my best was always spurned with scorn. 对里德太太呢，我记得我的最大努力总是遭到唾弃。 来自辞典例句