2019年经济学人 美国核条令(2)

 

Ms Warren’s impulse to constrain¹ nuclear policy is right. However, her proposal could well have perverse² effects that make the world less stable. Many of America’s allies, such as South Korea and the Baltic states, face large and intimidating³ rivals at a time when they worry about the global balance of power. They think uncertainty⁴ about America’s first use helps deter⁵ conventional attacks that might threaten their very existence, such as a Russian assault on Estoni. Were America to rule out first use, some of its Asian allies might pursue nuclear weapons of their own. Any such proliferation risks being destabilising and dangerous, multiplying the risks of nuclear war.

沃伦限制核政策的冲动是正确的。然而，她的提议很可能产生适得其反的效果，使世界更加不稳定。美国的许多盟友，如韩国和波罗的海国家，在担心全球力量平衡之际，面临着强大而令人生畏的对手。他们认为，美国首次使用核武器的不确定性有助于阻止可能威胁他们生存的常规攻击，比如俄罗斯对爱沙尼亚的攻击。如果美国排除首先使用核武器的可能性，一些亚洲盟友可能会发展自己的核武器。任何此类扩散都有破坏稳定和危险的风险，增加了核战争的风险。

The aim should be to maximise the deterrence⁶ from nuclear weapons while minimising the risk that they themselves become the cause of an escalation⁷. The place to start is the question posed by Major Hering 46 years ago. No individual ought to be entrusted⁸ with the unchecked power to initiate⁹ annihilation, even if he or she has been elected to the White House. One way to check the president’s launch authority would be to allow first use, but only with collective agreement, from congressional leaders, say, or the cabinet.

其目标应该是最大限度地发挥对核武器的威慑作用，同时将核武器本身成为升级原因的风险降至最低。首先是46年前赫林少校提出的问题。任何个人都不应该被赋予发动毁灭的不受限制的权力，即使他或她已经当选总统。检查总统发射权限的一种方法是允许先使用，但必须得到国会领导人或内阁的集体同意。

There are other ways for a first-use policy to be safer. America should make clear that the survival of nations must be at stake. Alas¹⁰, the Trump¹¹ administration has moved in the opposite direction, warning that “significant nonnuclear strategic attack”, including cyberstrikes, might meet with a nuclear response. America can also make its systems safer. About a third of American and Russian nuclear forces are designed to be launched within a few minutes, without the possibility of recall, merely on warning of enemy attack. Yet in recent decades, missile launches have been ambiguous enough to trigger the most serious alarms. If both sides agreed to take their weapons off this hair-trigger, their leaders could make decisions with cooler heads.

第一次使用的政策还有其他更安全的方法。美国应该明确表示，各国的生存一定是受到了威胁。遗憾的是，特朗普政府采取了相反的行动，警告称“重大的非核战略攻击”，包括网络攻击，可能会遭遇核回应。美国也可以让它的系统更安全。美俄两国约三分之一的核力量计划在几分钟内发射，而且不可能撤回，只是在接到敌人进攻的警告后才发射。然而，近几十年来，导弹发射一直模棱两可，足以触发最严重的警报。如果双方都同意解除这种一触即发的武器，他们的领导人就能以更冷静的头脑做出决定。

Most of all, America can put more effort into arms control. The collapse¹² of the Intermediate-range Nuclear Forces Treaty on August 2nd and a deadly radioactive accident in Russia involving a nuclear-powered missile on August 8th were the latest reminders¹³ that nuclear risks are growing just as the world’s ability to manage them seems to be diminishing.

最重要的是，美国可以在军备控制方面投入更多努力。8月2日《中程核力量条约》的瓦解，以及8月8日俄罗斯发生的一场涉及核动力导弹的致命放射性事故，都是最新的信号，表明核风险在不断增加，而世界应对风险的能力似乎正在减弱。

1 constrain   

vt.限制，约束；克制，抑制

参考例句：

• She tried to constrain herself from a cough in class.上课时她竭力忍住不咳嗽。
• The study will examine the factors which constrain local economic growth.这项研究将考查抑制当地经济发展的因素。

2 perverse   

adj.刚愎的；坚持错误的，行为反常的

参考例句：

• It would be perverse to stop this healthy trend.阻止这种健康发展的趋势是没有道理的。
• She gets a perverse satisfaction from making other people embarrassed.她有一种不正常的心态，以使别人难堪来取乐。

3 intimidating   

vt.恐吓，威胁( intimidate的现在分词)

参考例句：

• They were accused of intimidating people into voting for them. 他们被控胁迫选民投他们的票。
• This kind of questioning can be very intimidating to children. 这种问话的方式可能让孩子们非常害怕。

4 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

5 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

6 deterrence   

威慑，制止； 制止物，制止因素； 挽留的事物； 核威慑

参考例句：

• An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称，稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。

7 escalation   

n.扩大，增加

参考例句：

• The threat of nuclear escalation remains. 核升级的威胁仍旧存在。 来自辞典例句
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。 来自辞典例句

8 entrusted   

v.委托，托付( entrust的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• He entrusted the task to his nephew. 他把这任务托付给了他的侄儿。
• She was entrusted with the direction of the project. 她受委托负责这项计划。 来自《简明英汉词典》

9 initiate   

vt.开始，创始，发动；启蒙，使入门；引入

参考例句：

• A language teacher should initiate pupils into the elements of grammar.语言老师应该把基本语法教给学生。
• They wanted to initiate a discussion on economics.他们想启动一次经济学讨论。

10 alas   

int.唉(表示悲伤、忧愁、恐惧等)

参考例句：

• Alas!The window is broken!哎呀！窗子破了！
• Alas,the truth is less romantic.然而，真理很少带有浪漫色彩。

11 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

12 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

13 reminders   

n.令人回忆起…的东西( reminder的名词复数 )；提醒…的东西；（告知该做某事的）通知单；提示信

参考例句：

• The film evokes chilling reminders of the war. 这部电影使人们回忆起战争的可怕场景。
• The strike has delayed the mailing of tax reminders. 罢工耽搁了催税单的投寄。