2020年经济学人 妙招还是蠢招--美国暗杀伊朗将领(1)

Leaders

来源于《社论》版块

Masterstroke or madness?

妙举还是愚蠢的行为？

Donald Trump¹ wants to curb² Iran’s aggression³. The question is whether he has gone about it the right way

唐纳德·特朗普想要遏制伊朗的侵略。问题是他的做法是否正确

The killing⁴ of Qassem Suleimani by an American drone on January 3rd threatened to bring the United States and Iran closer to war than at any time since the hostage crisis in 1979. In a part of the world that has lost the power to shock, the audacious killing of Iran’s most important general, ordered by President Donald Trump, sent Iran reeling. In public ceremonies millions of Iranians put aside their discontent with the regime to mark General Suleimani’s death. Blood-curdling threats of destruction issued from the Middle East, echoed by warnings of mayhem from Western experts. And yet a retaliatory⁵ missile strike on two American bases in Iraq five days later killed nobody. It looked like a face-saving attempt by Iran to wind the crisis down. If that were the end of it, Mr Trump would be right to say that his strike had worked, as he suggested on January 8th. Ridding the world of a baleful individual and forcing Iran to curb its aggression really would be worthwhile achievements. In the coming months, that may indeed be how things turn out. The trouble is that nobody, including Mr Trump, can count on it.

1月3日，卡西姆·苏莱曼尼被一架美国无人机击毙，可能导致美国和伊朗更容易爆发战争，这是自1979年人质危机以来最严重的一次冲突。在这个已经有些麻木的地区，唐纳德·特朗普总统下令对伊朗最重要的将军大胆猎杀，伊朗举国震惊。在公众仪式上，数百万伊朗人放下对现政权的不满，缅怀苏莱曼尼将军的死亡。中东发出了令人毛骨悚然的毁灭威胁，西方专家也发出了可能造成混乱的警告。然而，5天后，一枚报复性导弹袭击了美国在伊拉克的两个基地，无人死亡。这看起来像是伊朗试图挽回颜面以结束危机。如果事情就此结束，特朗普可以正确地说，正如他在1月8日所暗示的那样，他的罢工起了作用。消除世界上一个邪恶的个人，并迫使伊朗遏制其侵略，确实是值得取得的成就。在接下来的几个月里，事情可能真的会变成这样。问题是，包括特朗普在内，没有人能指望它。

Two tests will define whether the killing of the general was a success—its effect on deterrence⁶ and on Iran’s regional power. For the past year Mr Trump has stood by as Iran and its proxies⁷ attacked merchant shipping⁸ in the Strait of Hormuz, two American drones, oil facilities in Saudi Arabia and military bases in Iraq. Because it had concluded that there was no price to pay, Iran was becoming more brazen⁹ and belligerent¹⁰. The beneficial effect of the drone strike on January 3rd is to re-establish the idea that America is willing to hit back. Iran’s restraint on Tuesday this week signals that it does not want to face an aerial onslaught by America. Another Iranian missile strike is less likely today than it was just weeks ago.

两项测试将会决定杀死将军是否是明智之举——它对威慑和伊朗地区力量的影响。过去一年里，伊朗及其代理人在霍尔木兹海峡袭击商船、两架美国无人机、沙特阿拉伯的石油设施和伊拉克的军事基地，特朗普一直袖手旁观。因为伊朗得出的结论是没有代价，从而变得更加肆无忌惮和好战。1月3日的无人机袭击带来的好处是重新树立了美国愿意反击的观念。伊朗本周周二的克制表明，它不希望面对美国的空袭。与几周前相比，伊朗再次发动导弹袭击的可能性有所降低。

1 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

2 curb   

n.场外证券市场，场外交易；vt.制止，抑制

参考例句：

• I could not curb my anger.我按捺不住我的愤怒。
• You must curb your daughter when you are in church.你在教堂时必须管住你的女儿。

3 aggression   

n.进攻，侵略，侵犯，侵害

参考例句：

• So long as we are firmly united, we need fear no aggression.只要我们紧密地团结，就不必惧怕外来侵略。
• Her view is that aggression is part of human nature.她认为攻击性是人类本性的一部份。

4 killing   

n.巨额利润；突然赚大钱，发大财

参考例句：

• Investors are set to make a killing from the sell-off.投资者准备清仓以便大赚一笔。
• Last week my brother made a killing on Wall Street.上个周我兄弟在华尔街赚了一大笔。

5 retaliatory   

adj.报复的

参考例句：

• The process can take years before the WTO approves retaliatory action. 在WTO通过此行动之前，这个程序恐怕要等上一阵子了。 来自互联网
• Retaliatory tariffs on China are tantamount to taxing ourselves as a punishment. 将惩罚性关税强加于中国相当于对我们自己实施课税惩罚。 来自互联网

6 deterrence   

威慑，制止； 制止物，制止因素； 挽留的事物； 核威慑

参考例句：

• An extreme school of "disarmers" pronounced stable deterrence was a dangerous deception. “裁军论者”中的极端派声称，稳定的威摄是一种危险的骗局。
• Escalation is thus an aspect of deterrence and of crisis management. 因此逐步升级是威慑和危机处理的一个方面。

7 proxies   

n.代表权( proxy的名词复数 )；（测算用的）代替物；（对代理人的）委托书；（英国国教教区献给主教等的）巡游费

参考例句：

• SOCKS and proxies are unavailable. Try connecting to XX again? socks和代理不可用。尝试重新连接到XX吗？ 来自互联网
• All proxies are still down. Continue with direct connections? 所有的代理仍然有故障。继续直接连接吗？ 来自互联网

8 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

9 brazen   

adj.厚脸皮的，无耻的，坚硬的

参考例句：

• The brazen woman laughed loudly at the judge who sentenced her.那无耻的女子冲着给她判刑的法官高声大笑。
• Some people prefer to brazen a thing out rather than admit defeat.有的人不愿承认失败，而是宁肯厚着脸皮干下去。

10 belligerent   

adj.好战的，挑起战争的；n.交战国，交战者

参考例句：

• He had a belligerent aspect.他有种好斗的神色。
• Our government has forbidden exporting the petroleum to the belligerent countries.我们政府已经禁止向交战国输出石油。