2020年经济学人 新冠当下,房价为何还在涨?(2)

Fiscal¹ policy, the second factor, may therefore be more important in explaining buoyant prices. In a normal recession, as people lose jobs and their incomes fall, foreclosures drag house prices down—not only by adding to the supply of houses on the market, but also by leaving ex-home-owners with a blemish² on their credit history, making it harder for them to borrow again. But this time governments in rich countries have preserved households' incomes. Handouts³ through wage subsidies⁴, furlough schemes and expanded welfare benefits amount to 5% of GDP. In the second quarter of the year households' disposable incomes in the G7 group of large economies were about $100bn higher than they were before the pandemic, even as jobs disappeared by the millions.

第二大因素是财政政策。财政政策在解释房价上涨上可能更为重要。在正常的经济衰退之下，当人们失去工作、收入下降时，丧失抵押品赎回权会拖低房价——这不仅会增加市场上的房屋供应，还会让前房主的信用记录上留下污点，使他们更难再次贷款。不过这次，发达国家的政府保护了家庭收入，通过工资补贴、休假计划和扩大福利发放的补贴达到了GDP的5%。今年第二季度，尽管有数百万人失去了工作，由大型经济体组成的七国集团(G7)的家庭可支配收入依然比疫情爆发前高出了约1000亿美元，

Other measures directly support the housing market. Spain, for instance, has allowed borrowers to suspend their mortgage repayments⁵. Japan's regulators have asked banks to defer⁶ principal repayments on mortgages, and the Netherlands temporarily banned foreclosures. In the second quarter the number of owner-occupied mortgaged properties that were repossessed in Britain was 93% lower than in the same period in 2019, the result of policies that dissuade⁷ repossessions. In America foreclosures, as a share of all mortgages, are at their lowest level since 1984.

还有其它一些直接支持房地产市场的措施。例如，西班牙已经允许借款人暂停还贷。日本的监管机构已要求银行推迟偿还抵押贷款的本金。英国第二季度被收回的业主自住抵押房产的数量同比减少了93%，这是劝阻收回房产政策的结果。在美国，丧失抵押品赎回权占所有抵押贷款的比例处于1984年以来的最低水平。

The third factor behind the unlikely global housing boom relates to changing consumer preferences. In 2019 households in the median OECD country devoted⁸ 19% of spending to housing costs. With a fifth of office workers continuing to work from home, many potential buyers may want to spend more on a nicer place to live. Already there is evidence that people are upgrading their household appliances.

全球房地产意外出现的繁荣背后的第三个因素与消费者偏好的变化有关。2019年，经合组织中位数国家的家庭将19%的支出用于住房成本。随着五分之一的上班族继续在家工作，许多潜在的买家可能想要花更多的钱在更好的地方居住。已有证据表明，人们正在升级家用电器。

People also seem to be looking for more space—which, all else being equal, raises house prices. Though the New York and San Francisco housing markets look weak, there is little wider evidence to support the idea that people are fleeing cities for the suburbs, at least in America. Data from Zillow, a housing marketplace, suggest urban and suburban⁹ property prices are rising at roughly the same pace; price growth in the truly get-away-from-it-all areas is actually slowing. It seems more likely that people are looking for bigger houses near where they already live. In Britain prices of detached houses are rising at an annual rate of 4%, compared with 0.9% for flats, and the market for homes with gardens is livelier than for those without.

人们似乎也在寻找更多的空间，在其他条件相同的情况下，这就抬高了房价。尽管纽约和旧金山的房地产市场看起来很疲软，但至少在美国，没有更广泛的证据支持人们正从城市迁往郊区这一观点。房地产市场Zillow的数据显示，城市和郊区房价的上涨速度大致相同；在那些真正可以摆脱危机的地区，价格增长实际上正在放缓。人们似乎更有可能在他们已经居住的地方附近寻找更大的房子。在英国，独立住宅的价格正以每年4%的速度上涨，而公寓仅为0.9%，此外，带花园的住宅市场比不带花园的住宅市场更为活跃。

Can house prices continue their upward march? Governments are slowly winding¹⁰ down their economic-rescue plans, and no one knows what will happen once support ends. But lower demand for housing may run up against lower supply. High levels of economic uncertainty¹¹ deter¹² investment: in America housebuilding has fallen by 17% since covid-19 struck. The experience of the last recession suggests that even when the economy recovers, construction lags behind. It may take more than the deepest downturn since the Depression to shake the housing market's foundations.

房价还会持续上涨吗？各国政府正逐渐缩减经济救助计划，没有人知道一旦救助结束会发生什么，但住房需求的减少可能会与供给的减少相冲突。经济的极具不稳定性将推迟投资：美国自新冠爆发以来住房建造已经减少了17%。上一次经济衰退的经验表明，经济即使复苏了，建筑行业仍然滞后。要想动摇房地产市场的根基，经济衰退还得再加把劲儿！

1 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

2 blemish   

v.损害；玷污；瑕疵，缺点

参考例句：

• The slightest blemish can reduce market value.只要有一点最小的损害都会降低市场价值。
• He wasn't about to blemish that pristine record.他本不想去玷污那清白的过去。

3 handouts   

救济品( handout的名词复数 )； 施舍物； 印刷品； 讲义

参考例句：

• Soldiers oversee the food handouts. 士兵们看管着救济食品。
• Even after losing his job, he was too proud to accept handouts. 甚至在失去工作后，他仍然很骄傲，不愿接受施舍。

4 subsidies   

n.补贴，津贴，补助金( subsidy的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• European agriculture ministers failed to break the deadlock over farm subsidies. 欧洲各国农业部长在农业补贴问题上未能打破僵局。
• Agricultural subsidies absorb about half the EU's income. 农业补贴占去了欧盟收入的大约一半。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 repayments   

偿还，报答，偿付的钱物( repayment的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The repayments of the loan are spread over 10 years. 贷款可在十年内分期偿还。
• The repayments of the loan are spread over 25 years. 这笔贷款分摊二十五年偿还。

6 defer   

vt.推迟，拖延；vi.(to)遵从，听从，服从

参考例句：

• We wish to defer our decision until next week.我们希望推迟到下星期再作出决定。
• We will defer to whatever the committee decides.我们遵从委员会作出的任何决定。

7 dissuade   

v.劝阻，阻止

参考例句：

• You'd better dissuade him from doing that.你最好劝阻他别那样干。
• I tried to dissuade her from investing her money in stocks and shares.我曾设法劝她不要投资于股票交易。

8 devoted   

adj.忠诚的，忠实的，热心的，献身于...的

参考例句：

• He devoted his life to the educational cause of the motherland.他为祖国的教育事业贡献了一生。
• We devoted a lengthy and full discussion to this topic.我们对这个题目进行了长时间的充分讨论。

9 suburban   

adj.城郊的，在郊区的

参考例句：

• Suburban shopping centers were springing up all over America. 效区的商业中心在美国如雨后春笋般地兴起。
• There's a lot of good things about suburban living.郊区生活是有许多优点。

10 winding   

n.绕，缠，绕组，线圈

参考例句：

• A winding lane led down towards the river.一条弯弯曲曲的小路通向河边。
• The winding trail caused us to lose our orientation.迂回曲折的小道使我们迷失了方向。

11 uncertainty   

n.易变，靠不住，不确知，不确定的事物

参考例句：

• Her comments will add to the uncertainty of the situation.她的批评将会使局势更加不稳定。
• After six weeks of uncertainty,the strain was beginning to take its toll.6个星期的忐忑不安后，压力开始产生影响了。

12 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。