2020年经济学人 新冠当下,房价为何还在涨?(1)

Finance & economics

财经

Global housing markets

全球房地产市场

The three pillars

三大支柱

Why, despite the coronavirus pandemic, house prices continue to rise.

新冠当下，房价为何还在涨？

During the global recession a decade ago, real house prices fell by an average of 10%, wiping trillions of dollars off the world's largest asset class. Though the housing market has not been the trigger of economic woes¹ this time, investors² and homeowners still braced³ for the worst as it became clear that covid-19 would push the world economy into its deepest downturn since the Depression of the 1930s.

十年前的全球衰退导致房价平均下跌了10%，世界最大的资产类别损失了数万亿美元。显然，新冠肺炎将把世界经济推入自上世纪30年代大萧条以来最严重的衰退。尽管这一次房地产市场并非经济危机的导火索，但投资者和房主已然做好了最坏的打算。

That pessimism⁴ now looks misplaced. House prices picked up in most middle and-high-income countries in the second quarter. In the rich world they rose at an annual rate of 5%. Share prices of developers and property-traders fell by a quarter in the early phase of the pandemic, but have recovered much of the fall.

现在看来，这种悲观情绪似乎不合时宜。大多数中高收入国家的房价在第二季度已经有所回升，发达国家的房价则以每年5%的速度在增长。疫情初期，开发商和房地产商的股价下跌了四分之一，但目前已经收复了大部分失地。

Some markets are fizzing. In August house prices in Germany were 11% higher than the year before; rapid growth in South Korea and parts of China has prompted the authorities to tighten⁵ restrictions⁶ on buyers. In America growth in the median price per square foot accelerated more quickly in the second quarter of 2020 than in any three-month period in the lead-up to the financial crisis of 2007-09. Three factors explain this strength: monetary⁷ policy, fiscal⁸ policy and buyers' changing preferences.

一些市场正在沸腾。8月德国的房价较去年增加了11%。韩国和中国部分地区房价涨势迅猛，政府不得不收紧对购房者的限制。美国2020年第二季度每平方英尺中值价格的增长速度比2007-09年金融危机前的任何一个季度都要快。可以解释这一优势的因素有三点：货币政策、财政政策和购房者偏好的变化。

Consider monetary policy first. Central bankers around the world have cut policy rates by two percentage points on average this year, reducing the cost of mortgage borrowing. Americans can take out a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage at an annual interest rate of just 2.9%, down from 3.7% at the beginning of the year. Studies suggest a strong link between falling real interest rates and higher house prices. Some borrowers can afford to take out bigger mortgages; others find it easier to manage their existing loans. Landlords are willing to pay more for property, because yields on other assets have dropped. In both America and Britain, mortgage lending is running at post-financial-crisis highs.

首先是货币政策。今年，世界各国央行将政策利率平均下调了2个百分点，降低了抵押贷款的成本。美国人可以以每年2.9%的利率获得30年期固定利率抵押贷款，比年初下降了0.8%。研究表明，实际利率的下降与房价上涨之间存在联系密切。一些借款人能够承担更大的抵押贷款，而其他借款人则发现管理现有贷款变得更加容易。房东愿意为房产支付更多的钱，因为其他资产的收益已经下降。在美国和英国，抵押贷款都处在金融危机后的最高水平。

That is not to say that it has become easier for everyone to borrow. In fact, obtaining a mortgage has become harder for many. Brokers⁹, fearful of the long-term economic impact of covid-19, have pulled back on riskier¹⁰ lending. British banks, for instance, are offering fewer high-loan-to-income mortgages. In America few loan officers at banks said they were tightening¹¹ lending standards before the pandemic; now 60% do. In contrast with previous periods of strong house-price growth, there is little evidence of lax lending standards.

这并不是说贷款对每个人来说都变得更加容易，实际上有很多人越来越难获得贷款。因为担心新冠会给经济带来长期影响，经纪公司已经撤回了高风险贷款。例如，英国的银行正在减少提供高贷款收入比的抵押贷款。在美国，疫情爆发前银行很少有信贷员说他们在收紧贷款标准，而现在有60%的信贷员这么说。与之前房价暴涨的时期相比，贷款标准显有松懈迹象。

1 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

2 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

3 braced   

adj.拉牢的v.支住( brace的过去式和过去分词 )；撑牢；使自己站稳；振作起来

参考例句：

• They braced up the old house with balks of timber. 他们用梁木加固旧房子。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The house has a wooden frame which is braced with brick. 这幢房子是木结构的砖瓦房。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 pessimism   

n.悲观者，悲观主义者，厌世者

参考例句：

• He displayed his usual pessimism.他流露出惯有的悲观。
• There is the note of pessimism in his writings.他的著作带有悲观色彩。

5 tighten   

v.(使)变紧；(使)绷紧

参考例句：

• Turn the screw to the right to tighten it.向右转动螺钉把它拧紧。
• Some countries tighten monetary policy to avoid inflation.一些国家实行紧缩银根的货币政策，以避免通货膨胀。

6 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

7 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

8 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

9 brokers   

n.（股票、外币等）经纪人( broker的名词复数 )；中间人；代理商；（订合同的）中人v.做掮客（或中人等）( broker的第三人称单数 )；作为权力经纪人进行谈判；以中间人等身份安排…

参考例句：

• The firm in question was Alsbery & Co., whiskey brokers. 那家公司叫阿尔斯伯里公司，经销威士忌。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹
• From time to time a telephone would ring in the brokers' offices. 那两排经纪人房间里不时响着叮令的电话。 来自子夜部分

10 riskier   

冒险的，危险的( risky的比较级 )

参考例句：

• Now they are starting to demand higher returns on riskier assets. 而今他们开始在风险更高的资产上要求更高的回报。
• The problem with that: RIM's business is getting riskier every quarter. 不过问题也随之而来：RIM面临的业务风险正逐季增大。

11 tightening   

上紧，固定，紧密

参考例句：

• Make sure the washer is firmly seated before tightening the pipe. 旋紧水管之前，检查一下洗衣机是否已牢牢地固定在底座上了。
• It needs tightening up a little. 它还需要再收紧些。