2021年经济学人 住房投资回报率到底高不高?(2)

The Oxbridge archives are rich enough to allow for the construction of something like an ideal property index, however. The study's authors dredged for detailed¹ data on sales and purchases (from transaction ledgers) and on rents and maintenance costs (from rent books) over the period from 1901 to 1983. To keep quality constant, they tracked the growth in rents on the same properties from one year to the next. They then linked these annualrates in a chain to create a quality-adjusted long-run series of income growth. This series has the added advantage of being based on cashflows, rather than the rent required by the lease, which is not always paid. (Rent holidays were a thing before this pandemic.) Alongside this, the authors put together a long-run series of gross yields by matching the transaction data with the income figures. They arrive at a net yield by subtracting maintenance costs.

然而，牛津剑桥的档案资料非常丰富，足以用来构建一个类似理想房产指数的东西。该研究的作者挖掘了1901年至1983年期间的销售和购买记录(来自交易账簿)以及租金和维护成本(来自租金账簿)的详细数据。为了保持质量不变，他们追踪了同一套房产的租金每年的增长情况。然后，他们将这些年增长率连接在一条链上，创造出经过质量调整的长期收入增长系列。这个系列的额外优势在于，它不是基于并不总是支付的租赁要求的租金，而是基于现金流。(在疫情爆发之前就已经有了“免租期”这一说。)与此同时，作者通过将交易数据与收入数据相匹配，得出了一系列长期的毛收益率。它们通过减去维护成本得到净收益。

The authors used these ingredients to derive² a consistent measure of long-run returns. The results are fascinating. The net annual real return on residential³ property was 2.3%. That is surprisingly low. By comparison "The Rate of Return on Everything", an oft-cited study published in the Quarterly Journal of Economicsin 2019, puts the net returns on British housing at 4.7% over the same period.

作者利用这些因素得出了长期收益的一致衡量标准，结果令人着迷。住宅地产的净年实际回报率为2.3%，也就是说出奇地低。相比之下，2019年发表在《经济季刊》上的一项经常被引用的研究《所有事物的回报率》认为同期英国住房的净回报率为4.7%。

What explains the discrepancy⁴? Perhaps the Oxbridge sample is not representative of the returns that could have been achieved. Put bluntly, the colleges might have had duff portfolios⁵ (or especially bad tenants). The evidence on whether college endowments are good investors⁶ is mixed. But the study is clear that portfolios were well diversified⁷ by region and type, and were managed with a strong eye to long-term returns. Another explanation is that the bottom-up Oxbridge-based study is closer to the truth, because it has a better handle on the more distant past. Top-down housing data in Britain before around 1970 adjusts for neither mix nor quality. What looks like price appreciation⁸ or rising real rents may simply be quality improvement.

如何解释这种差异呢？或许牛津和剑桥的样本不能代表本可以获得的回报。说白了，这些大学的投资组合可能都很差劲(尤其是糟糕的租户)。关于大学捐赠基金是否是优秀投资者的证据有好有坏。但这项研究清楚地表明，投资组合按地区和类型进行了很好地多样化，并且在管理时高度关注长期回报。另一种解释是，这项基于牛津和剑桥的自下而上的研究更接近事实，因为它更好地处理了更久远的过去。1970年以前英国自上而下的住房数据既不考虑混合因素也不考虑质量。看似价格上涨或房租上涨，其实可能只是质量的提高。

Look ahead, and there are big challenges for property investors. The pandemic will change how people live and work, and thus where they live and work. Understanding the pastis scarcely any easier. In the current circumstances it is not only Britons who might be wallowing in nostalgia⁹. But it would be a mistake to exaggerate how good the past was.

展望未来，房地产投资者将面临巨大挑战。新冠将改变人们的生活和工作方式，从而改变他们的生活和工作地点。了解过去也不容易。在目前的情况下，沉浸在怀旧之中的不仅仅是英国人。但是，夸大过去的美好是不对的。

1 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

2 derive   

v.取得；导出；引申；来自；源自；出自

参考例句：

• We derive our sustenance from the land.我们从土地获取食物。
• We shall derive much benefit from reading good novels.我们将从优秀小说中获得很大好处。

3 residential   

adj.提供住宿的；居住的；住宅的

参考例句：

• The mayor inspected the residential section of the city.市长视察了该市的住宅区。
• The residential blocks were integrated with the rest of the college.住宿区与学院其他部分结合在了一起。

4 discrepancy   

n.不同；不符；差异；矛盾

参考例句：

• The discrepancy in their ages seemed not to matter.他们之间年龄的差异似乎没有多大关系。
• There was a discrepancy in the two reports of the accident.关于那次事故的两则报道有不一致之处。

5 portfolios   

n.投资组合( portfolio的名词复数 )；（保险）业务量；（公司或机构提供的）系列产品；纸夹

参考例句：

• Price risk arises in non-trading portfolios, as well as in trading portfolios. 价格风险中出现的非贸易投资，以及在贸易投资组合。 来自互联网
• How do we fatten our portfolios and stay financially healthy? 我们怎样育肥我们的投资结构和维持财政健康呢？ 来自互联网

6 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

7 diversified   

adj.多样化的，多种经营的v.使多样化，多样化( diversify的过去式和过去分词 )；进入新的商业领域

参考例句：

• The college biology department has diversified by adding new courses in biotechnology. 该学院生物系通过增加生物技术方面的新课程而变得多样化。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Take grain as the key link, develop a diversified economy and ensure an all-round development. 以粮为纲，多种经营，全面发展。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

8 appreciation   

n.评价；欣赏；感谢；领会，理解；价格上涨

参考例句：

• I would like to express my appreciation and thanks to you all.我想对你们所有人表达我的感激和谢意。
• I'll be sending them a donation in appreciation of their help.我将送给他们一笔捐款以感谢他们的帮助。

9 nostalgia   

n.怀乡病，留恋过去，怀旧

参考例句：

• He might be influenced by nostalgia for his happy youth.也许是对年轻时幸福时光的怀恋影响了他。
• I was filled with nostalgia by hearing my favourite old song.我听到这首喜爱的旧歌，心中充满了怀旧之情。