2021年经济学人 2021美国的发展牵一发而动全身(1)

Radiant energy

辐射能

If America's economy runs hot, what happens to the rest of the world?

如果美国经济过热，世界其他地区会发生什么？

When america sneezes, the rest of the world catches a cold. But what happens when it runs a fever? After a trying 2020 in which GDP fell by 3.5%, America is poised¹ to enjoy a robust² rebound³ in 2021 simply by returning to something like normal as vaccination⁴ proceeds. Yet it might manage more than just that. If President Joe Biden's covid-19 relief bill is enacted⁵, total stimulus⁶ this year may exceed $2.5trn. That could easily push output above what the Congressional Budget Office estimates to be its "potential" level: that is, the amount the economy can produce without an increase in inflationary pressure. This possibility has some American economists⁷ on the lookout⁸ for signs of accelerating growth in prices and wages. America does not operate in a vacuum, however; should overheating occur, its effects will not be con- fined within its borders. Depending on how the recovery plays out, a hot American economy could be a boon⁹ for the rest of the world—or yet another source of concern.

当美国打喷嚏时，世界其他地方就会感冒。那么它感冒时会发生什么呢？2020年美国经历了艰难的一年，GDP下降了3.5%。而随着疫苗接种的进行，一切回归正常，那么美国有望在2021年实现强劲反弹，而且可能会反超。如果拜登总统的新冠救助法案获得通过，今年的刺激总额可能会超过2.5万亿美元。这很容易使产出超出国会预算办公室估计的“潜在”水平：即在通胀压力不增加的情况下经济能够产出的总量。这种可能性使得一些美国经济学家在寻找物价和工资加速增长的迹象。然而，美国并不是在“真空”中运作，如果出现过热，其影响将不会局限于国内。美国经济的繁荣对世界其他国家来说可能是福音，也可能是另一个担忧的来源，这取决于经济复苏的结果。

In a closed economy that does not trade with the rest of the world, too little spending leads to job losses and downward pressure on prices, whereas too much should push up employment and, eventually, prices. In an open economy, however, some of the effects of the shifts in demand spill over to the rest of the world. A sharp drop in spending, for instance, may be associated with plunging¹⁰ demand for imports, in which case some of the pain of a slump¹¹ is exported abroad. During the global financial crisis of 2007-09, troubles in financial markets wreaked¹² havoc¹³ all over the world, but even countries relatively¹⁴ insulated from those woes¹⁵ felt a chill thanks to trade links with America and Europe. According to one estimate, about a quarter of the drop in American demand and a fifth of the fall in European demand was borne by other economies, and transmitted through trade.

在一个不与世界其他地区进行贸易的封闭经济体中，支出过少会导致失业和价格下跌压力，而支出过多则会推高就业率，最终推高价格。然而，在一个开放的经济体中，需求变化的一些影响会溢出到世界其他地区。例如，消费的急剧下降可能与进口需求的急剧下降有关，在这种情况下，经济衰退带来的一些痛苦会出口到国外。在2007年至2009年的全球金融危机期间，金融市场的问题在全球范围内造成了严重破坏，但由于美国和欧洲的贸易联系，即使是那些与这些灾难相对隔绝的国家也感受到了寒意。据估计，美国需求下降的四分之一和欧洲需求下降的五分之一是由其他经济体承担的，并通过贸易传导。

A boost to demand ought to work in a similar way, but in the other direction. As Americans spend more, some of it leaks abroad: through purchases of foreign goods, for example, or spending on services—including tourism, which should begin to rebound as pandemic restrictions¹⁶ are lifted. An analysis of fiscalpolicy spillovers published by the IMF in 2017 found that an American stimulus consisting mostly of spending (as opposed to tax cuts) and worth 1% of GDP raises the output of the average country by 0.33% in the first year. Countries with closer trade ties experience bigger effects; the fillip to Canada's economy is estimated to be almost three times the average, for example. If the combination of reopening and stimulus invigorates the American consumer, the effects could quickly be felt all over the world.

刺激需求应该以类似的方式发挥作用，但方向相反。随着美国人消费的增加，其中一部分消费会流向国外：例如，通过购买外国商品，或者在服务方面的支出——包括旅游——随着新冠限制的解除，旅游业应该会开始反弹。国际货币基金组织在2017年发布的一份关于财政政策溢出效应的分析报告发现，美国的刺激计划主要由支出(而不是减税)组成，占GDP的1%，第一年能使国家的平均产出提高0.33%。贸易联系越紧密的国家影响就越大。例如，据估计，加拿大经济的刺激几乎是平均水平的三倍。如果重新开放和刺激措施的结合能刺激美国消费者，那么其影响很快就会波及到全世界。

1 poised   

a.摆好姿势不动的

参考例句：

• The hawk poised in mid-air ready to swoop. 老鹰在半空中盘旋，准备俯冲。
• Tina was tense, her hand poised over the telephone. 蒂娜心情紧张，手悬在电话机上。

2 robust   

adj.强壮的，强健的，粗野的，需要体力的，浓的

参考例句：

• She is too tall and robust.她个子太高，身体太壮。
• China wants to keep growth robust to reduce poverty and avoid job losses,AP commented.美联社评论道，中国希望保持经济强势增长，以减少贫困和失业状况。

3 rebound   

v.弹回；n.弹回，跳回

参考例句：

• The vibrations accompanying the rebound are the earth quake.伴随这种回弹的振动就是地震。
• Our evil example will rebound upon ourselves.我们的坏榜样会回到我们自己头上的。

4 vaccination   

n.接种疫苗，种痘

参考例句：

• Vaccination is a preventive against smallpox.种痘是预防天花的方法。
• Doctors suggest getting a tetanus vaccination every ten years.医生建议每十年注射一次破伤风疫苗。

5 enacted   

制定（法律），通过（法案）( enact的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• legislation enacted by parliament 由议会通过的法律
• Outside in the little lobby another scene was begin enacted. 外面的小休息室里又是另一番景象。 来自英汉文学 - 嘉莉妹妹

6 stimulus   

n.刺激，刺激物，促进因素，引起兴奋的事物

参考例句：

• Regard each failure as a stimulus to further efforts.把每次失利看成对进一步努力的激励。
• Light is a stimulus to growth in plants.光是促进植物生长的一个因素。

7 economists   

n.经济学家，经济专家( economist的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• The sudden rise in share prices has confounded economists. 股价的突然上涨使经济学家大惑不解。
• Foreign bankers and economists cautiously welcomed the minister's initiative. 外国银行家和经济学家对部长的倡议反应谨慎。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 lookout   

n.注意，前途，瞭望台

参考例句：

• You can see everything around from the lookout.从了望台上你可以看清周围的一切。
• It's a bad lookout for the company if interest rates don't come down.如果利率降不下来，公司的前景可就不妙了。

9 boon   

n.恩赐，恩物，恩惠

参考例句：

• A car is a real boon when you live in the country.在郊外居住，有辆汽车确实极为方便。
• These machines have proved a real boon to disabled people.事实证明这些机器让残疾人受益匪浅。

10 plunging   

adj.跳进的，突进的v.颠簸( plunge的现在分词 )；暴跌；骤降；突降

参考例句：

• War broke out again, plunging the people into misery and suffering. 战祸复发，生灵涂炭。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》
• He is plunging into an abyss of despair. 他陷入了绝望的深渊。 来自《简明英汉词典》

11 slump   

n.暴跌，意气消沉，（土地）下沉；vi.猛然掉落，坍塌，大幅度下跌

参考例句：

• She is in a slump in her career.她处在事业的低谷。
• Economists are forecasting a slump.经济学家们预言将发生经济衰退。

12 wreaked   

诉诸（武力），施行（暴力），发（脾气）( wreak的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city. 地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• They have wreaked dreadful havoc among the wildlife by shooting and trapping. 他们射杀和诱捕野生动物，造成了严重的破坏。

13 havoc   

n.大破坏，浩劫，大混乱，大杂乱

参考例句：

• The earthquake wreaked havoc on the city.地震对这个城市造成了大破坏。
• This concentration of airborne firepower wrought havoc with the enemy forces.这次机载火力的集中攻击给敌军造成很大破坏。

14 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

15 woes   

困境( woe的名词复数 )； 悲伤； 我好苦哇； 某人就要倒霉

参考例句：

• Thanks for listening to my woes. 谢谢您听我诉说不幸的遭遇。
• She has cried the blues about its financial woes. 对于经济的困难她叫苦不迭。

16 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制