2021年经济学人 中国做大金融开放蛋糕,不再担心"狼来了"(1)

China's financial opening

中国的金融开放

Over the great wall

跨越长城

Chinese markets shake off their casino reputation. Can foreigners actually win?

中国市场摆脱“赌场”之名。外国人真能赢吗？

In a world where internet memes can explain market swings, China is second to none. Early in March, with mainland equities¹ down by 15% in two weeks—their steepest fall in years—a video circulated on Weibo, a microblogging site, of a sheep stuck in a fence on a hill and a hiker climbing up to free it. The description of the video, in its meme incarnation, was "the national team comes to rescue me". The national team is shorthand for big state firms that are believed to stabilise the market by buying shares when they plunge².

说到用网络热梗来呈现市场波动，中国的本领可谓首屈一指。3月初，中国大陆股市在两周内下跌了15％，创下近年最大跌幅，这时一段视频开始在微博上流传——一只羊被困在山坡上的围栏里，一个登山者爬上去解救它。视频的标题“国家队来救我了”套用了一个热梗。“国家队”指的是人们认为会在股市暴跌时买入股票以稳定市场的大型国企。

This video, though, had a twist. The hiker frees the sheep, only for it to lose its footing and tumble down the hill. Talk of the national team's rescue mission had spread for a few days, but equities continued to tumble, wiping out all gains made since late last year.

然而这段视频还有反转。登山者把卡住的羊拉出后，它却失足滚下了山。有关国家队出手救市的消息传了好几天，但股市继续暴跌，抹掉了自去年年底以来的所有涨幅。

At last, on March 9th, the national team really did arrive. State media reported that large state-owned insurers had bought stocks. Coincidentally or not, that heralded³ the market bottom. For casual observers of Chinese finance it all fit a familiar pattern: stocks careening from boom to bust⁴, propelled by day traders and rumours⁵, and the government eventually restoring calm.

终于，3月9日这天国家队真的进场了。官媒报道称国有大型保险公司已经入市。不知是不是巧合，市场似乎开始触底反弹。在对中国的金融市场多少有些了解的人看来，一切都还是同一个套路：在日内交易者和谣言的推动下，股市先飙升，再暴跌，最终政府出手稳定市场。

But to those inside the market, the story was in fact more novel. The decline in Chinese shares neatly⁶ paralleled the decline in the NASDAQ, America's tech-heavy stock index. Guan Qingyou, a prominent Chinese economist⁷, argued that the underlying⁸ trigger was nervousness about inflation in America. A resulting jump in American bond yields had sparked risk aversion globally and hit China hard. Foreign investors⁹, who had helped fuel China's equity¹⁰ rally last year, retreated. Reacting to the same signals, big domestic fund managers also rushed to pare their holdings.

但对于身处其中的人来说，这次波动实则有更多新鲜之处。中国股市的这波跌势紧随美国科技股指数纳斯达克的下跌。中国著名经济学家管清友认为，深层触发因素是对美国通胀的忧虑。美债收益率因此攀升，点燃了全球的避险情绪，给中国股市带来沉重打击。去年曾助推中国股市上涨的外国投资者纷纷撤退。国内大型基金经理也对同样的信号做出反应，竞相减仓。

The sell-off, in other words, furnished evidence about two important areas of progress in China's capital markets: they are both more professional and more interwoven with global finance than before. At the same time, incessant¹¹ talk about the national team was a reminder¹² of the idiosyncrasies of finance in a state-dominated economy—idiosyncrasies that matter ever more to the rest of the world.

换句话说，这波抛售证明了中国资本市场有两个重大进步：相比以往，它们变得更专业，与全球金融市场也更紧密地交织在一起。同时，人们对“国家队”的心心念念也显示出这个国家主导型经济里的金融市场有其特异性——这些特性对世界其他地区变得越来越重要。

Just five years ago no analysis of finance in China was complete without a detailed¹³ look at shadow banking¹⁴. Formal banks were too strictly¹⁵ controlled to satisfy borrowing needs in the fast-growing economy. Stock and bond markets were underdeveloped. So between the cracks, lightly regulated institutions cropped up, willing to lend to anyone with collateral—especially property developers and miners.

仅仅在五年前，全面分析中国金融市场还少不了要仔细考察影子银行。正规银行受到严格管控，无法满足快速增长的经济对借贷的需求。股票和债券市场也不发达。于是，从夹缝中滋生出一些受到较少监管的金融机构，它们愿意向任何有抵押品的人放贷，尤其是房地产开发商和矿业公司。

1 equities   

普通股，股票

参考例句：

• These are invested mainly in the OECD bonds and equities. 这些资产主要投资于经济合作及发展组织的债券与股票市场。
• They are also advantage of the global rebound in equities. 它们还在利用全球股市反弹的机会。

2 plunge   

v.跳入，(使)投入，(使)陷入；猛冲

参考例句：

• Test pool's water temperature before you plunge in.在你跳入之前你应该测试水温。
• That would plunge them in the broil of the two countries.那将会使他们陷入这两国的争斗之中。

3 heralded   

v.预示( herald的过去式和过去分词 )；宣布（好或重要）

参考例句：

• The singing of the birds heralded in the day. 鸟鸣报晓。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• A fanfare of trumpets heralded the arrival of the King. 嘹亮的小号声宣告了国王驾到。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 bust   

vt.打破；vi.爆裂；n.半身像；胸部

参考例句：

• I dropped my camera on the pavement and bust it. 我把照相机掉在人行道上摔坏了。
• She has worked up a lump of clay into a bust.她把一块黏土精心制作成一个半身像。

5 rumours   

n.传闻( rumour的名词复数 )；风闻；谣言；谣传

参考例句：

• The rumours were completely baseless. 那些谣传毫无根据。
• Rumours of job losses were later confirmed. 裁员的传言后来得到了证实。

6 neatly   

adv.整洁地，干净地，灵巧地，熟练地

参考例句：

• Sailors know how to wind up a long rope neatly.水手们知道怎样把一条大绳利落地缠好。
• The child's dress is neatly gathered at the neck.那孩子的衣服在领口处打着整齐的皱褶。

7 economist   

n.经济学家，经济专家，节俭的人

参考例句：

• He cast a professional economist's eyes on the problem.他以经济学行家的眼光审视这个问题。
• He's an economist who thinks he knows all the answers.他是个经济学家，自以为什么都懂。

8 underlying   

adj.在下面的，含蓄的，潜在的

参考例句：

• The underlying theme of the novel is very serious.小说隐含的主题是十分严肃的。
• This word has its underlying meaning.这个单词有它潜在的含义。

9 investors   

n.投资者，出资者( investor的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• a con man who bilked investors out of millions of dollars 诈取投资者几百万元的骗子
• a cash bonanza for investors 投资者的赚钱机会

10 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。

11 incessant   

adj.不停的，连续的

参考例句：

• We have had incessant snowfall since yesterday afternoon.从昨天下午开始就持续不断地下雪。
• She is tired of his incessant demands for affection.她厌倦了他对感情的不断索取。

12 reminder   

n.提醒物，纪念品；暗示，提示

参考例句：

• I have had another reminder from the library.我又收到图书馆的催还单。
• It always took a final reminder to get her to pay her share of the rent.总是得发给她一份最后催缴通知，她才付应该交的房租。

13 detailed   

adj.详细的，详尽的，极注意细节的，完全的

参考例句：

• He had made a detailed study of the terrain.他对地形作了缜密的研究。
• A detailed list of our publications is available on request.我们的出版物有一份详细的目录备索。

14 banking   

n.银行业，银行学，金融业

参考例句：

• John is launching his son on a career in banking.约翰打算让儿子在银行界谋一个新职位。
• He possesses an extensive knowledge of banking.他具有广博的银行业务知识。

15 strictly   

adv.严厉地，严格地；严密地

参考例句：

• His doctor is dieting him strictly.他的医生严格规定他的饮食。
• The guests were seated strictly in order of precedence.客人严格按照地位高低就座。