2021年经济学人 阿联酋闹“分手”,OPEC$#$会散伙吗?(2)

Iran is a more likely source of new supply.

伊朗是一个更有可能的新供应来源。

The country's negotiators are trying to strike a deal with America that would lift economic sanctions in return for limits on its nuclear ambitions.

该国的谈判代表正试图与美国达成一项协议以解除对其核野心的经济制裁作为交换条件。

If they succeed, Iran could add around 1m barrels a day to the market by the end of the year; it could also sell the 200m barrels it currently has in storage.

如果他们成功了，到今年年底伊朗可以每天向市场增加100万桶原油。它还可以出售目前储存的2亿桶石油。

Chris Midgley of s&p Global Platts, a data firm, points out that Saudi officials do not want a replay of 2018,

标准普尔全球普氏能源信息公司的克里斯·米德格利指出，沙特官员不想重蹈2018年的覆辙，

when America's decision not to reimpose oil sanctions on Iran took them by surprise and sent oil prices lurching downwards¹.

当时美国决定不重新对伊朗实施石油制裁令他们感到意外并导致油价暴跌。

What, then, to expect from the cartel and its allies? There are three scenarios².

那么，我们能从卡特尔及其盟友那里期待什么呢？有三种情况。

One is that countries start producing whatever they want, a price war ensues, and oil prices tumble. Analysts³ reckon that this is the least likely outcome.

一是各国开始生产他们想要的东西，随之而来的是价格战，油价暴跌。分析人士认为这是最不可能的结果。

Energy ministers still bear the scars of the ill-timed price war of March 2020, when Russia and Saudi Arabia failed to agree on production cuts.

2020年3月，俄罗斯和沙特阿拉伯未能就减产达成一致，当时不合时机的价格战给能源部长们留下了伤疤。

The market was flooded with oil just before demand suffered its covid-induced collapse⁴.

就在新冠肺炎导致需求崩溃之前，市场上石油量充足。

Another possibility is that a new deal fails to be struck, and that countries stick to their current quotas⁶.

另一种可能性是，新协议无法达成，各国将坚持现有配额。

That would mean the extra post-July production increases that the market had been expecting do not materialise.

这将意味着市场此前预期的7月后额外的产量增长不会出现。

Coupled with a summer uptick in demand from holidaymakers as they fly or drive to their destinations, that would push prices up, perhaps over $80 a barrel.

再加上夏季度假者乘飞机或开车前往目的地时需求的上升，这将推高油价至可能超过每桶80美元。

The most likely outcome from the row, however, is a compromise.

然而，争吵最可能的结果是妥协。

One possibility is that the UAE and some other countries are allowed a temporary increase in output and the thorny⁷ issue of quota⁵ revision is kicked down the road.

一种可能性是，阿联酋和其他一些国家被允许暂时增加产量，而配额修订的棘手问题将被搁置。

Even if a deal is struck, however, the spat⁸ may portend⁹ further disagreements— and more price volatility¹⁰.

然而，即使达成了协议，争执也可能预示着进一步的分歧——以及更大的价格波动。

OPEC+ members are using divergent strategies when it comes to the energy transition and the oil markets, argues Francesco Martoccia of Citigroup, a bank.

花旗银行的Francesco Martoccia认为，当涉及到能源转型和石油市场时，欧佩克+成员国正在使用不同的策略。

Faced with dwindling¹¹ demand in the long term, some producers, such as the UAE, want to boost supply and monetise petroleum¹² reserves earlier.

面对长期的需求下降，阿联酋等一些产油国希望增加供应，尽早将石油储备货币化。

Others, such as Saudi Arabia, want to restrict production to keep prices high.

其他国家，如沙特阿拉伯，则希望限制产量以保持高油价。

Such divisions will become even clearer as the shift towards a greener economy accelerates. OPEC's latest tiff¹³ won't be its last.

随着向绿色经济的转变加速，这种分歧将变得更加清晰。欧佩克最近的争执不会是最后一次。

1 downwards   

adj./adv.向下的（地），下行的（地）

参考例句：

• He lay face downwards on his bed.他脸向下伏在床上。
• As the river flows downwards,it widens.这条河愈到下游愈宽。

2 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

3 analysts   

分析家，化验员( analyst的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• City analysts forecast huge profits this year. 伦敦金融分析家预测今年的利润非常丰厚。
• I was impressed by the high calibre of the researchers and analysts. 研究人员和分析人员的高素质给我留下了深刻印象。

4 collapse   

vi.累倒；昏倒；倒塌；塌陷

参考例句：

• The country's economy is on the verge of collapse.国家的经济已到了崩溃的边缘。
• The engineer made a complete diagnosis of the bridge's collapse.工程师对桥的倒塌做了一次彻底的调查分析。

5 quota   

n.（生产、进出口等的）配额，（移民的）限额

参考例句：

• A restricted import quota was set for meat products.肉类产品设定了进口配额。
• He overfulfilled his production quota for two months running.他一连两个月超额完成生产指标。

6 quotas   

（正式限定的）定量( quota的名词复数 )； 定额； 指标； 摊派

参考例句：

• In fulfilling the production quotas, John made rings round all his fellow workers. 约翰完成生产定额大大超过他的同事们。
• Quotas of the means of production are allocated by the higher administrative bodies to the lower ones. 物资指标按隶属关系分配。

7 thorny   

adj.多刺的，棘手的

参考例句：

• The young captain is pondering over a thorny problem.年轻的上尉正在思考一个棘手的问题。
• The boys argued over the thorny points in the lesson.孩子们辩论功课中的难点。

8 spat   

n.口角，掌击；v.发出呼噜呼噜声

参考例句：

• Her parents always have spats.她的父母经常有些小的口角。
• There is only a spat between the brother and sister.那只是兄妹间的小吵小闹。

9 portend   

v.预兆，预示；给…以警告

参考例句：

• Black clouds portend a storm.乌云为暴风雨的前兆。
• What do these strange events portend?这些奇怪的事件预示着什么？

10 volatility   

n.挥发性，挥发度，轻快，（性格）反复无常

参考例句：

• That was one reason why volatility was so low last year.这也是去年波动性如此低的原因之一。
• Yet because volatility remained low for so long,disaster myopia prevailed.然而，由于相当长的时间里波动性小，灾难短视就获胜了。

11 dwindling   

adj.逐渐减少的v.逐渐变少或变小( dwindle的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• The number of wild animals on the earth is dwindling. 地球上野生动物的数量正日渐减少。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He is struggling to come to terms with his dwindling authority. 他正努力适应自己权力被削弱这一局面。 来自辞典例句

12 petroleum   

n.原油，石油

参考例句：

• The Government of Iran advanced the price of petroleum last week.上星期伊朗政府提高了石油价格。
• The purpose of oil refinery is to refine crude petroleum.炼油厂的主要工作是提炼原油。

13 tiff   

n.小争吵，生气

参考例句：

• They patched up their tiff again.他们平息了争执，又和好如初了。
• There was a new tiff between the two girls.那两个女孩之间有一场新的吵嘴。