Flaws plague a tool meant to help low-risk federal prisoners win early release

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Flaws plague a tool meant to help low-risk federal prisoners win early release

Transcript¹

Thousands of people are leaving federal prison this month thanks to a law called the First Step Act, which allowed them to win early release by participating in programs aimed at easing their return to society.

But thousands of others may still remain behind bars because of fundamental flaws in the Justice Department's method for deciding who can take the early-release track. The biggest flaw: persistent² racial disparities that put Black and brown people at a disadvantage.

In a report issued days before Christmas in 2021, the department said its algorithmic tool for assessing the risk that a person in prison would return to crime produced uneven³ results. The algorithm, known as Pattern, overpredicted the risk that many Black, Hispanic and Asian people would commit new crimes or violate rules after leaving prison. At the same time, it also underpredicted the risk for some inmates⁴ of color when it came to possible return to violent crime.

"From the beginning, civil rights groups cautioned Congress and the Justice Department that use of a risk assessment⁵ tool to make these determinations would lead to racial disparities," said Aamra Ahmad, senior policy counsel at the American Civil Liberties Union.

"The Justice Department found that only 7% of Black people in the sample were classified as minimum level risk compared to 21% of white people," she added. "This indicator⁶ alone should give the Department of Justice great pause in moving forward."

The rule of unintended consequences

Risk assessment tools are common in many states. But critics said Pattern is the first time the federal justice system is using an algorithm with such high stakes.

Congress passed the First Step Act in 2018 with huge bipartisan majorities. It's designed to prepare people in prison for life afterward⁷ by offering credits toward early release for working or taking life skills and other classes while behind bars.

Lawmakers like Sens. Sheldon Whitehouse of Rhode Island and John Cornyn of Texas took inspiration from similar criminal justice reforms in states, which they said led to drops in both prison populations and crime. The senators pointed⁸ out that some 9 in 10 people in prison eventually return home, and they contended that preparing them for release made good sense for formerly⁹ incarcerated¹⁰ people and for public safety.

Only inmates who pose a low or minimal¹¹ risk of returning to crime can qualify for the programs, with that risk level determined¹² using the Pattern algorithm.

"The significance of this risk assessment tool is that it divides all federal prisoners essentially¹³ into two groups: people who can get credit for doing this programming and get out early, and people who can't," said Jim Felman, an attorney in Tampa, Fla., who has been following the First Step Act for years.

The implementation¹⁴ has been rocky. The Justice Department finished the first version of Pattern in a rush because of a tight deadline from Congress.

It then had to make tweaks after finding Pattern suffered from math and human errors.

About 14,000 men and women in federal prison still wound up in the wrong risk categories. There were big disparities for people of color.

"The legislation, I think, came from a good place," said Melissa Hamilton, a professor of law and criminal justice at the University of Surrey who studies risk assessments¹⁵. "It's just the rule of unintended consequences is not really realizing the impediments it was going to have."

Risk assessment tool "sounds highly technical, but it's not"

"You use a term like 'risk assessment tool,' it has this patina¹⁶ of science, it sounds highly technical, but it's not," said Patricia Richman, who works on national policy issues for the Federal Public and Community Defenders¹⁷. "A risk assessment tool is just a series of policy decisions."

Those policy decisions are made by determining what counts as a risk factor and by how much.

Criminal history can be a problem, for example, because law enforcement has a history of overpolicing some communities of color. Other factors such as education level and whether someone paid restitution¹⁸ to their victims can intersect with race and ethnicity, too.

In its December report, the Justice Department concluded that some of the disparities could be reduced, "but not without tradeoffs" such as less accurate risk predictions. The department also said using race as a factor in the algorithm could trigger other legal concerns.

Still, it is consulting with experts about making the algorithm fairer and another overhaul¹⁹ of Pattern is already underway.

Attorney General Merrick Garland has directed the department to look for ways to assess racial bias²⁰ and make the tool more transparent²¹, a spokeswoman said.

One option is to adjust the cutoff points between the risk categories, allowing more prisoners to earn credits for release, which would "maximize access to First Step Act relief while ensuring public safety," she said.

Ultimately, Garland will have to sign off on a new version. Then, Justice has to reevaluate the 14,000 people in prison who got lumped into the wrong category.

"This is just one example of the ways that harmful artificial intelligence systems are being rolled out in everything from the criminal legal system to employment decisions to who gets access to housing and social benefits," said Sasha Costanza-Chock, director of research and design for the Algorithmic Justice League, which studies the social implications of artificial intelligence.

Costanza-Chock said the burden is on the Justice Department to prove the Pattern tool doesn't have racist²² and sexist outcomes.

"Especially when systems are high risk and affect people's liberty, we need much clearer and stronger oversight," said Costanza-Chock.

Looking for resolution

Felman, the Florida lawyer working with the American Bar Association, worried that the tool will continue to put many prisoners of color at a disadvantage.

"We will start to see more prisoners get out early," he said. "My concern is that the color of their skin will not be reflective of fairness."

The ACLU's Ahmad said she's seen enough.

"There are no technical fixes to these problems that could make Pattern and similar tools safe and fair to use," Ahmad said. "We would urge the Justice Department to suspend the use of Pattern until it can adequately address these concerns."

Hamilton, who studies risk assessments, thinks the Pattern tool may be worth saving. Consider the alternative, she said: decisions made by people who have all kinds of biases²³.

"So that's the unfortunate thing is, it's better than gut²⁴ instinct of the very flawed humans that we all are, and can we improve it more than marginally, and that's what we're all working on?" Hamilton said.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 persistent   

adj.坚持不懈的，执意的；持续的

参考例句：

• Albert had a persistent headache that lasted for three days.艾伯特连续头痛了三天。
• She felt embarrassed by his persistent attentions.他不时地向她大献殷勤，使她很难为情。

3 uneven   

adj.不平坦的，不规则的，不均匀的

参考例句：

• The sidewalk is very uneven—be careful where you walk.这人行道凹凸不平—走路时请小心。
• The country was noted for its uneven distribution of land resources.这个国家以土地资源分布不均匀出名。

4 inmates   

n.囚犯( inmate的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• One of the inmates has escaped. 被收容的人中有一个逃跑了。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• The inmates were moved to an undisclosed location. 监狱里的囚犯被转移到一个秘密处所。 来自《简明英汉词典》

5 assessment   

n.评价；评估；对财产的估价，被估定的金额

参考例句：

• This is a very perceptive assessment of the situation.这是一个对该情况的极富洞察力的评价。
• What is your assessment of the situation?你对时局的看法如何？

6 indicator   

n.指标；指示物，指示者；指示器

参考例句：

• Gold prices are often seen as an indicator of inflation.黃金价格常常被看作是通货膨胀的指标。
• His left-hand indicator is flashing.他左手边的转向灯正在闪亮。

7 afterward   

adv.后来；以后

参考例句：

• Let's go to the theatre first and eat afterward. 让我们先去看戏，然后吃饭。
• Afterward,the boy became a very famous artist.后来，这男孩成为一个很有名的艺术家。

8 pointed   

adj.尖的，直截了当的

参考例句：

• He gave me a very sharp pointed pencil.他给我一支削得非常尖的铅笔。
• She wished to show Mrs.John Dashwood by this pointed invitation to her brother.她想通过对达茨伍德夫人提出直截了当的邀请向她的哥哥表示出来。

9 formerly   

adv.从前，以前

参考例句：

• We now enjoy these comforts of which formerly we had only heard.我们现在享受到了过去只是听说过的那些舒适条件。
• This boat was formerly used on the rivers of China.这船从前航行在中国内河里。

10 incarcerated   

钳闭的

参考例句：

• They were incarcerated for the duration of the war. 战争期间，他们被关在狱中。 来自辞典例句
• I don't want to worry them by being incarcerated. 我不想让他们知道我被拘禁的事情。 来自电影对白

11 minimal   

adj.尽可能少的，最小的

参考例句：

• They referred to this kind of art as minimal art.他们把这种艺术叫微型艺术。
• I stayed with friends, so my expenses were minimal.我住在朋友家，所以我的花费很小。

12 determined   

adj.坚定的；有决心的

参考例句：

• I have determined on going to Tibet after graduation.我已决定毕业后去西藏。
• He determined to view the rooms behind the office.他决定查看一下办公室后面的房间。

13 essentially   

adv.本质上，实质上，基本上

参考例句：

• Really great men are essentially modest.真正的伟人大都很谦虚。
• She is an essentially selfish person.她本质上是个自私自利的人。

14 implementation   

n.实施，贯彻

参考例句：

• Implementation of the program is now well underway.这一项目的实施现在行情看好。

15 assessments   

n.评估( assessment的名词复数 )；评价；（应偿付金额的）估定；（为征税对财产所作的）估价

参考例句：

• He was shrewd in his personal assessments. 他总能对人作出精明的评价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Surveys show about two-thirds use such assessments, while half employ personality tests. 调查表明，约有三分之二的公司采用了这种测评；而一半的公司则采用工作人员个人品质测试。 来自百科语句

16 patina   

n.铜器上的绿锈，年久而产生的光泽

参考例句：

• The trophy has a beautiful green patina.这个奖杯表面有一层漂亮的绿锈。
• Ancient bronze animal are covered in vivid green patina.古代青铜器动物被绿色彩铜绿笼罩。

17 defenders   

n.防御者( defender的名词复数 )；守卫者；保护者；辩护者

参考例句：

• The defenders were outnumbered and had to give in. 抵抗者寡不敌众，只能投降。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• After hard fighting,the defenders were still masters of the city. 守军经过奋战仍然控制着城市。 来自《简明英汉词典》

18 restitution   

n.赔偿；恢复原状

参考例句：

• It's only fair that those who do the damage should make restitution.损坏东西的人应负责赔偿，这是再公平不过的了。
• The victims are demanding full restitution.受害人要求全额赔偿。

19 overhaul   

v./n.大修，仔细检查

参考例句：

• Master Worker Wang is responsible for the overhaul of this grinder.王师傅主修这台磨床。
• It is generally appreciated that the rail network needs a complete overhaul.众所周知，铁路系统需要大检修。

20 bias   

n.偏见，偏心，偏袒；vt.使有偏见

参考例句：

• They are accusing the teacher of political bias in his marking.他们在指控那名教师打分数有政治偏见。
• He had a bias toward the plan.他对这项计划有偏见。

21 transparent   

adj.明显的，无疑的；透明的

参考例句：

• The water is so transparent that we can see the fishes swimming.水清澈透明，可以看到鱼儿游来游去。
• The window glass is transparent.窗玻璃是透明的。

22 racist   

n.种族主义者，种族主义分子

参考例句：

• a series of racist attacks 一连串的种族袭击行为
• His speech presented racist ideas under the guise of nationalism. 他的讲话以民族主义为幌子宣扬种族主义思想。

23 biases   

偏见( bias的名词复数 )； 偏爱； 特殊能力； 斜纹

参考例句：

• Stereotypes represent designer or researcher biases and assumptions, rather than factual data. 它代表设计师或者研究者的偏见和假设，而不是实际的数据。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓
• The net effect of biases on international comparisons is easily summarized. 偏差对国际比较的基本影响容易概括。

24 gut   

n.[pl.]胆量；内脏；adj.本能的；vt.取出内脏

参考例句：

• It is not always necessary to gut the fish prior to freezing.冷冻鱼之前并不总是需要先把内脏掏空。
• My immediate gut feeling was to refuse.我本能的直接反应是拒绝。