美国国家公共电台 NPR--Video analysis reveals Russian attack on Ukrainian nuclear plant veered near disaster

Video analysis reveals Russian attack on Ukrainian nuclear plant veered¹ near disaster

Transcript²

Last week's assault by Russian forces on the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant was far more dangerous than initial assessments³ suggested, according to an analysis by NPR of video and photographs of the attack and its aftermath.

A thorough review of a four-hour, 21-minute security camera video of the attack reveals that Russian forces repeatedly fired heavy weapons in the direction of the plant's massive reactor⁵ buildings, which housed dangerous nuclear fuel. Photos show that an administrative⁶ building directly in front of the reactor complex was shredded⁷ by Russian fire. And a video from inside the plant shows damage and a possible Russian shell that landed less than 250 feet from the Unit 2 reactor building.

The security camera footage also shows Russian troops haphazardly⁸ firing rocket-propelled grenades into the main administrative building at the plant and turning away Ukrainian firefighters even as a fire raged out of control in a nearby training building.

The evidence stands in stark⁹ contrast to early comments by the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA), which while acknowledging the seriousness of the assault, emphasized that the action took place away from the reactors¹⁰. In a news conference immediately after the attack, IAEA Director-General Rafael Mariano Grossi made reference to only a single projectile¹¹ hitting a training building adjacent to the reactor complex.

"All the safety systems of the six reactors at the plant were not affected¹² at all," Grossi told reporters at the March 4 briefing.

In fact, the training building took multiple strikes, and it was hardly the only part of the site to take fire from Russian forces. The security footage supports claims by Ukraine's nuclear regulator of damage at three other locations: the Unit 1 reactor building, the transformer at the Unit 6 reactor and the spent fuel pad, which is used to store nuclear waste. It also shows ordnance¹³ striking a high-voltage line outside the plant. The IAEA says two such lines were damaged in the attack.

"This video is very disturbing," says Edwin Lyman, director of nuclear power safety at the Union of Concerned Scientists. While the types of reactors used at the plant are far safer than the one that exploded in Chernobyl in 1986, the Russian attack could have triggered a meltdown similar to the kind that struck Japan's Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in 2011, he warns.

"It's completely insane to subject a nuclear plant to this kind of an assault," Lyman says.

In a news conference on Thursday, Grossi said that he had met with Ukrainian and Russian officials but failed to reach an agreement to avoid future attacks on Ukraine's other nuclear plants. "I'm aiming at having something relatively¹⁴ soon," he told reporters in Vienna.

On March 3, the nuclear plant was preparing for a fight. A news release posted to its website just hours before the assault described the facility as operating normally, with its assigned Ukrainian military unit ready for combat.

The Russian decision to move on the plant was clearly premeditated, according to Leone Hadavi, an open-source analyst¹⁵ with the Centre for Information Resilience, who helped NPR review the video.

"It was planned," Hadavi says, and it involved around 10 armored vehicles as well as two tanks. That is far more firepower than would have been carried by, say, a reconnaissance mission that might have stumbled across the plant by chance.

Just before 11:30 p.m. local time, someone began livestreaming the plant's security footage on its YouTube channel. The livestream rolled on as Russian forces began a slow and methodical advance on the plant. The column of armored vehicles, led by the tanks, used spotlights¹⁶ to cautiously approach the plant from the southeast along the main service road to the facility.

Around an hour and 20 minutes later, one of the two tanks that led the column was struck by a missile from Ukrainian forces and was disabled.

That marked the beginning of a fierce firefight that lasted for roughly two hours at the plant. Immediately after the tank was disabled, Russian forces returning fire appeared to hit a transmission line connected to the plant's main electrical substation. The IAEA says two of four high-voltage lines were damaged in the attack. Lyman says that these lines are essential to safe operations at the plant.

Russian forces then pushed their way into the parking area near the front gate and began shooting.

Much of the fire was directed toward the training center and the plant's main administrative building. But at various points in the battle, Russian forces lobbed rounds deep into the nuclear complex in the direction of the reactor buildings.

It's unclear whether the Russian troops were deliberately¹⁷ trying to strike more sensitive sections of the plant or whether they were returning fire from Ukrainian forces off camera. But what is clear is that the shooting was not accidental.

"We don't see random¹⁸ volleys of fire," Hadavi says. "The fire is very concentrated. They clearly want to hit Point A, Point B, Point C and Point D."

The afternoon after the battle, the State Nuclear Regulatory Inspectorate of Ukraine reported that the reactor compartment¹⁹ of Unit 1, which lay in the direction of some of the Russian fire, had sustained damage. It also reported that two shells had landed in an area used to hold old nuclear waste that lay to the north of the battle. Later statements by the regulator and the IAEA reported further damage to the power transformer for the Unit 6 reactor.

At one point, the video shows Russian forces directing their firepower northward²⁰ toward Unit 6 and the spent fuel area, corroborating²¹ those reports.

Hadavi says the Russian troops remained disciplined through most of their attack. Toward the end of the fight, however, some Russian soldiers seemed to be discharging rocket-propelled grenades indiscriminately toward the main administrative building. One was seen stepping from behind an armored vehicle, raising the weapon and — without kneeling to take careful aim — firing it into the upper floors of the building. A total of five rocket-propelled grenades were lobbed into the facility.

Firefighters denied entry

By 2:25 a.m. on March 4, the fighting was largely over. Reinforcements arrived, including a Russian-built MRAP armored vehicle with a gray paint job resembling those used by the Russian National Guard.

Firefighting vehicles arrived at around 2:50 a.m., likely from the nearby town of Enerhodar. But even as the fire raged in the training building, Russian forces apparently²² forced the firefighters to turn around.

The damage

In the days after the assault, Energoatom, the Ukrainian state-owned utility that ran Zaporizhzhia, released several photos showing damage to the site on the social media platform Telegram. Most notably²³, a short video shows what might be a Russian artillery²⁴ shell on an elevated walkway leading toward the Unit 2 reactor building.

The possible shell was heavily damaged and could not be identified with confidence, but Hadavi says it bears resemblance to some 100 mm and 125 mm munitions²⁵ used by Russian armored vehicles and tanks. The video also shows two holes that were punched through the walkway's ceiling, presumably by Russian fire, and damage to the steel beams holding up the roof.

The location of the possible shell and the damage is within just a few hundred feet of the Unit 2 reactor building, says Tom Bielefeld, an independent nuclear security analyst based in Germany.

Bielefeld says that the walkway also runs alongside a building used to handle radioactive waste from the plant. That building is not as hardened, or reinforced against attacks and other catastrophic events, as the nuclear reactor buildings are. Had it been struck, there would have been the potential for a localized release of radioactive contamination.

"It was a near miss," Bielefeld says.

Energoatom also released several photos of battle damage to offices at the plant. NPR was able to verify the location as the main administrative building at the front of the facility.

Based on photos and damage assessments by Ukrainian officials and the IAEA, Lyman says that the damage appears to have been to some of the less hardened points within the nuclear plant. Unlike office buildings and elevated walkways, the reactors themselves and their spent fuel are sealed within a thick steel containment²⁶ vessel²⁷ that would withstand a great deal of damage.

But he also says that the host of systems required to keep the reactors safe are not hardened against attack. Cooling systems rely on exterior²⁸ pipework; backup generators²⁹ are kept in relatively ordinary buildings; vital electrical yards are out in the open; and the plant's control rooms are not designed to operate in a war zone.

Lyman says that the reactors at Zaporizhzhia have an inherently safer design than the ones at Chernobyl, which in 1986 was the site of the worst nuclear disaster the world has ever seen.

Nevertheless, he said, if the firefight had damaged more of the plant's critical subsystems and the nuclear engineers on-site hadn't been able to reach emergency backups, the situation could have turned dire⁴.

"In a couple of hours, you have core damage starting and a situation that is potentially irreversible," he says. "And then you have Fukushima."

In 2011, at the Fukushima Daiichi Nuclear Power Plant in Japan, a massive tsunami³⁰ disabled electrical and cooling systems. Without cooling, the cores of the three operating reactors overheated and the nuclear fuel eventually melted. The ensuing meltdown breached³¹ the containment vessels³², and radioactive material spilled into the environment. Over 100,000 people were forced to evacuate³³ from their homes for a prolonged period, and thousands have yet to return.

"Dangerous idiocy³⁴"

That did not happen at the Zaporizhzhia nuclear plant, which is now firmly under Russian control. Russian state media showed off the capture of the plant on Wednesday while carefully framing out some of the damage Russian troops had caused. Meanwhile, Ukraine's nuclear inspectorate says that reactors 1 and 6 at the site have been effectively disabled by the fighting. A lack of personnel and parts is hindering scheduled maintenance at Unit 1 and repairs to the damaged Unit 6 transformer, respectively.

"We emphasize that incomplete and/or untimely implementation³⁵ of maintenance measures for equipment important to safety can decrease its reliability³⁶ and in turn lead to its failure and emergencies and accidents," the regulator said in a statement.

Bielefeld says he is deeply worried about the prospects³⁷ of firefights at Ukraine's three remaining nuclear power stations. At Rivne Nuclear Power Plant in the country's north, the plant's director, Pavlo Pavlyshyn, told NPR that Ukrainian forces were prepared to mount a defense³⁸ should Russian troops try to take the plant. And Russian forces are now advancing toward a second plant, the South Ukraine Nuclear Power Station.

"I hope this will be the last time we have to talk about these things," Bielefeld says. "But this war is not over yet."

Without some sort of rules of engagement regarding nuclear facilities, he worries that a more serious accident could be just a matter of time.

"Everybody knows that nuclear reactors are not designed to withstand all-out military assaults," he says. "It is dangerous idiocy."

NPR's Tim Mak and Daniel Wood contributed to this report.

1 veered   

v.（尤指交通工具）改变方向或路线( veer的过去式和过去分词 )；（指谈话内容、人的行为或观点）突然改变；（指风） （在北半球按顺时针方向、在南半球按逆时针方向）逐渐转向；风向顺时针转

参考例句：

• The bus veered onto the wrong side of the road. 公共汽车突然驶入了逆行道。
• The truck veered off the road and crashed into a tree. 卡车突然驶离公路撞上了一棵树。 来自《简明英汉词典》

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 assessments   

n.评估( assessment的名词复数 )；评价；（应偿付金额的）估定；（为征税对财产所作的）估价

参考例句：

• He was shrewd in his personal assessments. 他总能对人作出精明的评价。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Surveys show about two-thirds use such assessments, while half employ personality tests. 调查表明，约有三分之二的公司采用了这种测评；而一半的公司则采用工作人员个人品质测试。 来自百科语句

4 dire   

adj.可怕的，悲惨的，阴惨的，极端的

参考例句：

• There were dire warnings about the dangers of watching too much TV.曾经有人就看电视太多的危害性提出严重警告。
• We were indeed in dire straits.But we pulled through.那时我们的困难真是大极了，但是我们渡过了困难。

5 reactor   

n.反应器；反应堆

参考例句：

• The atomic reactor generates enormous amounts of thermal energy.原子反应堆发出大量的热能。
• Inside the reactor the large molecules are cracked into smaller molecules.在反应堆里，大分子裂变为小分子。

6 administrative   

adj.行政的，管理的

参考例句：

• The administrative burden must be lifted from local government.必须解除地方政府的行政负担。
• He regarded all these administrative details as beneath his notice.他认为行政管理上的这些琐事都不值一顾。

7 shredded   

shred的过去式和过去分词

参考例句：

• Serve the fish on a bed of shredded lettuce. 先铺一层碎生菜叶，再把鱼放上，就可以上桌了。
• I think Mapo beancurd and shredded meat in chilli sauce are quite special. 我觉得麻婆豆腐和鱼香肉丝味道不错。 来自《简明英汉词典》

8 haphazardly   

adv.偶然地，随意地，杂乱地

参考例句：

• The books were placed haphazardly on the shelf. 书籍乱七八糟地堆放在书架上。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• It is foolish to haphazardly adventure. 随便冒险是愚蠢的。 来自《现代英汉综合大词典》

9 stark   

adj.荒凉的；严酷的；完全的；adv.完全地

参考例句：

• The young man is faced with a stark choice.这位年轻人面临严峻的抉择。
• He gave a stark denial to the rumor.他对谣言加以完全的否认。

10 reactors   

起反应的人( reactor的名词复数 )； 反应装置； 原子炉； 核反应堆

参考例句：

• The TMI nuclear facility has two reactors. 三哩岛核设施有两个反应堆。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• The earliest production reactors necessarily used normal uranium as fuel. 最早为生产用的反应堆，必须使用普通铀作为燃料。

11 projectile   

n.投射物，发射体；adj.向前开进的；推进的；抛掷的

参考例句：

• The vertical and horizontal motions of a projectile can be treated independently.抛射体的竖直方向和水平方向的运动能够分开来处理。
• Have you altered the plans of the projectile as the telegram suggests?你已经按照电报的要求修改炮弹图样了吗?

12 affected   

adj.不自然的，假装的

参考例句：

• She showed an affected interest in our subject.她假装对我们的课题感到兴趣。
• His manners are affected.他的态度不自然。

13 ordnance   

n.大炮，军械

参考例句：

• She worked in an ordnance factory during the war.战争期间她在一家兵工厂工作。
• Shoes and clothing for the army were scarce,ordnance supplies and drugs were scarcer.军队很缺鞋和衣服，武器供应和药品就更少了。

14 relatively   

adv.比较...地，相对地

参考例句：

• The rabbit is a relatively recent introduction in Australia.兔子是相对较新引入澳大利亚的物种。
• The operation was relatively painless.手术相对来说不痛。

15 analyst   

n.分析家，化验员；心理分析学家

参考例句：

• What can you contribute to the position of a market analyst?你有什么技能可有助于市场分析员的职务？
• The analyst is required to interpolate values between standards.分析人员需要在这些标准中插入一些值。

16 spotlights   

n.聚光灯（的光）( spotlight的名词复数 )；公众注意的中心v.聚光照明( spotlight的第三人称单数 )；使公众注意，使突出醒目

参考例句：

• The room was lit by spotlights. 房间被聚光灯照亮。
• The dazzle of the spotlights made him ill at ease. 聚光灯的耀眼强光使他局促不安。 来自辞典例句

17 deliberately   

adv.审慎地；蓄意地；故意地

参考例句：

• The girl gave the show away deliberately.女孩故意泄露秘密。
• They deliberately shifted off the argument.他们故意回避这个论点。

18 random   

adj.随机的；任意的；n.偶然的(或随便的)行动

参考例句：

• The list is arranged in a random order.名单排列不分先后。
• On random inspection the meat was found to be bad.经抽查，发现肉变质了。

19 compartment   

n.卧车包房，隔间；分隔的空间

参考例句：

• We were glad to have the whole compartment to ourselves.真高兴，整个客车隔间由我们独享。
• The batteries are safely enclosed in a watertight compartment.电池被安全地置于一个防水的隔间里。

20 northward   

adv.向北；n.北方的地区

参考例句：

• He pointed his boat northward.他将船驶向北方。
• I would have a chance to head northward quickly.我就很快有机会去北方了。

21 corroborating   

v.证实，支持（某种说法、信仰、理论等）( corroborate的现在分词 )

参考例句：

• Neither can one really conclude much from a neat desk, unless there is further corroborating evidence. 实际上，我们也无法从一张整洁的办公桌中得出什么结论，除非还有其它证据进一步证实。 来自互联网

22 apparently   

adv.显然地；表面上，似乎

参考例句：

• An apparently blind alley leads suddenly into an open space.山穷水尽，豁然开朗。
• He was apparently much surprised at the news.他对那个消息显然感到十分惊异。

23 notably   

adv.值得注意地，显著地，尤其地，特别地

参考例句：

• Many students were absent,notably the monitor.许多学生缺席，特别是连班长也没来。
• A notably short,silver-haired man,he plays basketball with his staff several times a week.他个子明显较为矮小，一头银发，每周都会和他的员工一起打几次篮球。

24 artillery   

n.(军)火炮，大炮；炮兵(部队)

参考例句：

• This is a heavy artillery piece.这是一门重炮。
• The artillery has more firepower than the infantry.炮兵火力比步兵大。

25 munitions   

n.军火，弹药；v.供应…军需品

参考例句：

• The army used precision-guided munitions to blow up enemy targets.军队用精确瞄准的枪炮炸掉敌方目标。
• He rose [made a career for himself] by dealing in munitions.他是靠贩卖军火发迹的。

26 containment   

n.阻止，遏制；容量

参考例句：

• Your list might include such things as cost containment,quality,or customer satisfaction.你的清单上应列有诸如成本控制、产品质量、客户满意程度等内容。
• Insularity and self-containment,it is argued,go hand in hand.他们争论说，心胸狭窄和自我封闭是并存的。

27 vessel   

n.船舶；容器，器皿；管，导管，血管

参考例句：

• The vessel is fully loaded with cargo for Shanghai.这艘船满载货物驶往上海。
• You should put the water into a vessel.你应该把水装入容器中。

28 exterior   

adj.外部的，外在的；表面的

参考例句：

• The seed has a hard exterior covering.这种子外壳很硬。
• We are painting the exterior wall of the house.我们正在给房子的外墙涂漆。

29 generators   

n.发电机，发生器( generator的名词复数 )；电力公司

参考例句：

• The factory's emergency generators were used during the power cut. 工厂应急发电机在停电期间用上了。
• Power can be fed from wind generators into the electricity grid system. 电力可以从风力发电机流入输电网。 来自《简明英汉词典》

30 tsunami   

n.海啸

参考例句：

• Powerful quake sparks tsunami warning in Japan.大地震触发了日本的海啸预警。
• Coastlines all around the Indian Ocean inundated by a huge tsunami.大海啸把印度洋沿岸地区都淹没了。

31 breached   

攻破( breach的现在分词 )； 破坏，违反

参考例句：

• These commitments have already been breached. 这些承诺已遭背弃。
• Our tanks have breached the enemy defences. 我方坦克车突破了敌人的防线。

32 vessels   

n.血管( vessel的名词复数 )；船；容器；（具有特殊品质或接受特殊品质的）人

参考例句：

• The river is navigable by vessels of up to 90 tons. 90 吨以下的船只可以从这条河通过。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• All modern vessels of any size are fitted with radar installations. 所有现代化船只都有雷达装置。 来自《现代汉英综合大词典》

33 evacuate   

v.遣送；搬空；抽出；排泄；大(小)便

参考例句：

• We must evacuate those soldiers at once!我们必须立即撤出这些士兵！
• They were planning to evacuate the seventy American officials still in the country.他们正计划转移仍滞留在该国的70名美国官员。

34 idiocy   

n.愚蠢

参考例句：

• Stealing a car and then driving it drunk was the ultimate idiocy.偷了车然后醉酒开车真是愚蠢到极点。
• In this war there is an idiocy without bounds.这次战争疯癫得没底。

35 implementation   

n.实施，贯彻

参考例句：

• Implementation of the program is now well underway.这一项目的实施现在行情看好。

36 reliability   

n.可靠性，确实性

参考例句：

• We mustn't presume too much upon the reliability of such sources.我们不应过分指望这类消息来源的可靠性。
• I can assure you of the reliability of the information.我向你保证这消息可靠。

37 prospects   

n.希望，前途(恒为复数)

参考例句：

• There is a mood of pessimism in the company about future job prospects. 公司中有一种对工作前景悲观的情绪。
• They are less sanguine about the company's long-term prospects. 他们对公司的远景不那么乐观。

38 defense   

n.防御，保卫；[pl.]防务工事；辩护，答辩

参考例句：

• The accused has the right to defense.被告人有权获得辩护。
• The war has impacted the area with military and defense workers.战争使那个地区挤满了军队和防御工程人员。