The threat of nuclear war hangs over the Russia-Ukraine crisis

The threat of nuclear war hangs over the Russia-Ukraine crisis

　　Transcript¹

　　NPR's Rachel Martin talks to Slate²'s Fred Kaplan, author of The Bomb: Presidents Generals and the Secret History of Nuclear War, about whether Russia might use nuclear weapons in the war in Ukraine.

　　RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

　　When we talk about Russia's war in Ukraine, it is hard to ignore the worst possible outcome - some kind of nuclear confrontation³ between Russia and the United States - which is one of the big reasons the Biden administration has said no to Ukraine's repeated requests for a no-fly zone meant to deter⁴ Russian airstrikes; too much risk of direct military confrontation between nuclear powers. We called up Fred Kaplan. He's a national security correspondent at Slate and the author of the book "The Bomb: Presidents, Generals, And The Secret History Of Nuclear War." I asked him about Putin's willingness to use a nuclear weapon to get what he wants right now. Kaplan began with a few guarded words of reassurance⁵.

　　FRED KAPLAN: Well, first I would say the chances of that happening are very low.

　　MARTIN: But we hadn't called Fred Kaplan for blanket reassurances⁶ and really he wasn't offering any.

　　KAPLAN: On the other hand, there are probably - there's a higher chance of something like that happening maybe than any time since the Cuban missile crisis. The thing is this - he's losing the war on the ground, or if he's not losing, he's not winning. And he thought he would win. I think it's quite possible that if NATO or U.S. forces got involved directly in the battle, he might very well use or launch a small number of tactical or battlefield nuclear weapons to try to bring it to a halt.

　　MARTIN: Just explain what that means because that's still real bad.

　　KAPLAN: Yeah. It's - tactical nuclear weapon is the phrase. Basically, it means a weapon used on the battlefield, whereas a strategic nuclear weapon is a long-range weapon that Russia would hit a target in the United States or the United States would hit a target in Russia. But, you know, there is a tendency when people say low-yield nuclear weapon, it sounds like, oh, well, it's just a low-yield weapon. But our low-yield weapon, it explodes with the power of 8,000 tons of dynamite⁷ plus radiation, radioactive fallout and all the rest. It is still, by the standards of any explosion that anyone alive today has ever seen, it's extraordinarily⁸ large.

　　MARTIN: In your book, you do describe this nuclear war game, for lack of a better phrase, that the White House and the Pentagon talked through during the Obama administration. It was a made-up scenario⁹, but it's not too far from what we're witnessing in Ukraine. Walk us through how U.S. policymakers, the deciders in the room, thought that scenario through.

　　KAPLAN: Yeah. As you say, there was this war game. They were kind of trying to play out how this escalate¹⁰ and de-escalate scenario would work. And so they devised this scenario where there is a war, maybe Russia invades the Baltic states. We fight back. We're winning on the ground. Russia sets off a couple of tactical nuclear weapons, maybe against troop concentrations, U.S. or NATO or maybe a NATO airfield¹¹. Then what do we do? Well, let's see. What kind of targets would we want to hit with a nuclear weapon in response? And then a couple of officials said, wait a minute, I think you're missing the main point. Russia, once they use a nuclear weapon, the world will come down upon them. Nobody's used a nuclear weapon in anger since 1945. They're going to get slammed with every kind of sanction and every kind of isolation¹² you can imagine. Let's just keep fighting the war with conventional weapons, which is extraordinary. I mean...

　　MARTIN: Why would it be extraordinary that they would want to avert¹³ mutually assured destruction?

　　KAPLAN: It's been kind of assumed that if somebody uses a nuclear weapon first, we would fire a nuclear weapon back. And what happened - there was a second game, and this is with the Principals Committee of the NSC. And somebody brought up the same idea. Let's just keep fighting conventionally and shame Russia. And everybody else around the table said this would be a disaster. The credibility of the United States with all of our alliances is that we would respond to a nuclear weapon with nuclear weapons. This would completely destroy NATO if we didn't fire back in kind. And then the question became, well, where do we fire these weapons? And they came up with AN idea, well, let's just fire off a couple of tac nukes at military targets in Belarus.

　　MARTIN: A strong Russian ally, but still...

　　KAPLAN: Yeah. Even though Belarus had nothing to do with the war game in question. And then the game was called to an end. Nobody wanted to play what happens next? And, you know, Rachel, this is the dangerous thing that we would be getting into. It's interesting. People have been writing about nuclear strategy since a few weeks after Hiroshima and Nagasaki. People have written out scenarios¹⁴. Despite this, for decades, nobody has the slightest idea what would happen after one nuclear weapon is used. Even if there is the finest tuned¹⁵ intentions of keeping the war limited and not hitting population centers and so forth¹⁶, the effects of nuclear weapons - what they can do to communication systems, to satellite perceptions, the probability of miscalculation, misperception, of things going generally awry¹⁷ - are much greater than any, you know, think tank board playing war game has ever been able to anticipate.

　　MARTIN: What I also hear you saying is that there's almost an emotional or psychological quality. You can't replicate¹⁸ it in a war game. That what it would take to actually push a button like that is something you can't really know until you're confronted with the real-world scenario.

　　KAPLAN: Right. I mean, on the one hand, maybe the sight of a mushroom cloud going up would just bring everybody to the table like, oh, my God, this line we've crossed is just horrendous¹⁹. We've got to bring this thing to an end. Or maybe it would raise emotions like, we can't let them get away with this. We have to respond in kind. And again, that's why, when you're talking about NATO or U.S. troops directly getting involved in this war, by which I mean, you know, sending troops, that is why Biden and every other leader of NATO is extremely cautious, much as they would like and much as they are in helping²⁰ Ukraine in every other respect.

　　MARTIN: Fred Kaplan, national security correspondent at Slate and the author of "The Bomb: Presidents, Generals And The Secret History Of Nuclear War," thank you so much for talking with us.

　　KAPLAN: Thank you.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 slate   

n.板岩，石板，石片，石板色，候选人名单；adj.暗蓝灰色的，含板岩的；vt.用石板覆盖，痛打，提名，预订

参考例句：

• The nominating committee laid its slate before the board.提名委员会把候选人名单提交全体委员会讨论。
• What kind of job uses stained wood and slate? 什么工作会接触木头污浊和石板呢？

3 confrontation   

n.对抗，对峙，冲突

参考例句：

• We can't risk another confrontation with the union.我们不能冒再次同工会对抗的危险。
• After years of confrontation,they finally have achieved a modus vivendi.在对抗很长时间后，他们最后达成安宁生存的非正式协议。

4 deter   

vt.阻止，使不敢，吓住

参考例句：

• Failure did not deter us from trying it again.失败并没有能阻挡我们再次进行试验。
• Dogs can deter unwelcome intruders.狗能够阻拦不受欢迎的闯入者。

5 reassurance   

n.使放心，使消除疑虑

参考例句：

• He drew reassurance from the enthusiastic applause.热烈的掌声使他获得了信心。
• Reassurance is especially critical when it comes to military activities.消除疑虑在军事活动方面尤为关键。

6 reassurances   

n.消除恐惧或疑虑( reassurance的名词复数 )；恢复信心；使人消除恐惧或疑虑的事物；使人恢复信心的事物

参考例句：

• We have had some reassurances from the council that the building will be saved. 理事会保证会保留那座建筑，这使我们得到了些许安慰。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Everybody's reassurances have encouraged me. 大家的勉励鼓舞了我。 来自辞典例句

7 dynamite   

n./vt.(用)炸药(爆破)

参考例句：

• The workmen detonated the dynamite.工人们把炸药引爆了。
• The philosopher was still political dynamite.那位哲学家仍旧是政治上的爆炸性人物。

8 extraordinarily   

adv.格外地；极端地

参考例句：

• She is an extraordinarily beautiful girl.她是个美丽非凡的姑娘。
• The sea was extraordinarily calm that morning.那天清晨，大海出奇地宁静。

9 scenario   

n.剧本，脚本；概要

参考例句：

• But the birth scenario is not completely accurate.然而分娩脚本并非完全准确的。
• This is a totally different scenario.这是完全不同的剧本。

10 escalate   

v.(使)逐步增长(或发展)，(使)逐步升级

参考例句：

• It would tempt Israel's neighbors to escalate their demands.它将诱使以色列的邻国不断把他们的要求升级。
• Defeat could cause one side or other to escalate the conflict.失败可能会导致其中一方将冲突升级。

11 airfield   

n.飞机场

参考例句：

• The foreign guests were motored from the airfield to the hotel.用车把外宾从机场送到旅馆。
• The airfield was seized by enemy troops.机场被敌军占领。

12 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

13 avert   

v.防止，避免；转移(目光、注意力等)

参考例句：

• He managed to avert suspicion.他设法避嫌。
• I would do what I could to avert it.我会尽力去避免发生这种情况。

14 scenarios   

n.[意]情节；剧本；事态；脚本

参考例句：

• Further, graphite cores may be safer than non-graphite cores under some accident scenarios. 再者，根据一些事故解说，石墨堆芯可比非石墨堆芯更安全一些。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Again, scenarios should make it clear which modes are acceptable to users in various contexts. 同样，我们可以运用场景剧本来搞清楚在不同情境下哪些模式可被用户接受。 来自About Face 3交互设计精髓

15 tuned   

adj.调谐的，已调谐的v.调音( tune的过去式和过去分词 )；调整；（给收音机、电视等）调谐；使协调

参考例句：

• The resort is tuned in to the tastes of young and old alike. 这个度假胜地适合各种口味，老少皆宜。
• The instruments should be tuned up before each performance. 每次演出开始前都应将乐器调好音。 来自《简明英汉词典》

16 forth   

adv.向前；向外，往外

参考例句：

• The wind moved the trees gently back and forth.风吹得树轻轻地来回摇晃。
• He gave forth a series of works in rapid succession.他很快连续发表了一系列的作品。

17 awry   

adj.扭曲的，错的

参考例句：

• She was in a fury over a plan that had gone awry. 计划出了问题，她很愤怒。
• Something has gone awry in our plans.我们的计划出差错了。

18 replicate   

v.折叠，复制，模写；n.同样的样品；adj.转折的

参考例句：

• The DNA of chromatin must replicate before cell division.染色质DNA在细胞分裂之前必须复制。
• It is also easy to replicate,as the next subsection explains.就像下一个小节详细说明的那样，它还可以被轻易的复制。

19 horrendous   

adj.可怕的，令人惊惧的

参考例句：

• He described it as the most horrendous experience of his life.他形容这是自己一生中最可怕的经历。
• The mining industry in China has a horrendous safety record.中国的煤矿工业具有令人不安的安全记录。

20 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。