How sanctions factor into negotiations between Russia and Ukraine

How sanctions factor into negotiations¹ between Russia and Ukraine

　　Transcript²

　　The U.S. and other western allies have unleashed³ a barrage⁴ of economic penalties on Russia in the weeks since it first invaded Ukraine. As the violence continues — and the two countries return to the negotiating table — how much are sanctions actually helping⁵ push Russia to end the war?

　　Morning Edition's A Martínez posed that question to Juan Zarate, a former assistant secretary of the Treasury⁶ who is now global co-managing partner at K2 Integrity.

　　Zarate says the sanctions have had a dramatic impact on the Russian economy when it comes to things like the value of the ruble and the selloff of bonds and assets, but are not enough on their own to turn back the tanks, especially when there's "a committed actor like [Russian President Vladimir Putin] with a design on invading a country and potentially destroying its cities.

　　"Sanctions have a tail to them — they take time to take effect, the effects on the economy in Russia are still just being felt, and so I think it's asking sanctions to do too much to actually stop the war. But it certainly can be part of a tableau⁷ of pressure that's put on Putin to try to change his behavior, change his calculus⁸," Zarate explains, pointing to other factors like the Ukrainian resistance, diplomatic isolation⁹ and companies pulling out of Russia.

　　Sanctions can, however, play an important role in the ongoing¹⁰ negotiations between Russia and Ukraine. And Zarate says we may also see more action taken against sanctions evaders, and countries that are continuing to do business with Russia.

　　How sanctions factor into negotiations

　　Zarate says sanctions could play two important roles in the ongoing peace talks. For one, they help shape how Russia feels the costs of its actions, something he says should play into the calculus of negotiators at the bargaining table. In other words, he says, they should understand that things are only going to get worse for Russia as its economy continues to feel the effects of sanctions.

　　The conversation could also come to include the lifting of certain sanctions, such as restrictions¹¹ on trade or investment.

　　"Every sanction that is used as a stick can also be used as a carrot," Zarate says, adding that he has seen this in the case of Iran and other countries that are seeking to get out from under the pressure of economic sanctions.

　　How Putin experiences the sanctions, compared to the Russian public

　　Zarate says a "classic dilemma¹²" with the application of sanction is that if you're putting maximum pressure on an economy, you're ultimately harming ordinary people and their ability to operate commercially.

　　"Whether or not the regime leadership feels it directly, or whether or not they even care about the effects on their population is a different question," he said, pointing to examples like Iraq's Saddam Hussein and the Castros in Cuba.

　　Zarate says the sanctions targeting Russian oligarchs have been a way to try to get at Putin's assets. He sees them as an attempt to (at least psychologically ) impact Putin's level of comfort and warn him that the international community won't let him rest — even if the Russian people are bearing that cost.

　　What could happen to countries that help Russia financially

　　How much could other countries — like China, which Russia has reportedly turned to for financial and military assistance — help fill those gaps?

　　China is an important outlet¹³ for Russia, Zarate says, and could certainly trade with the country and buy its oil, gas, timber and minerals. He says it could also potentially create mechanisms¹⁴ to circumvent¹⁵ sanctions. The role of China and other countries could become more important as Russia is increasingly isolated¹⁶ from Europe and North America.

　　He adds that the U.S. could definitely go after individuals, entities¹⁷ and even countries that are evading¹⁸ sanctions already on the books, and anticipates seeing more enforcement in those areas (against entities like suppliers and shipping¹⁹ companies, for example) in the coming weeks and months.

　　Zarate notes that we've yet to see the application of "secondary sanctions," or the ability to go after those who continue to trade with Russia even if they themselves aren't subject to sanctions. That would allow the U.S., Europe and others to go after the Indian, Turkish, Chinese and other international companies still doing business with Russia — and Zarate says we could see more action in the future.

1 negotiations   

协商( negotiation的名词复数 )； 谈判； 完成（难事）； 通过

参考例句：

• negotiations for a durable peace 为持久和平而进行的谈判
• Negotiations have failed to establish any middle ground. 谈判未能达成任何妥协。

2 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

3 unleashed   

v.把（感情、力量等）释放出来，发泄( unleash的过去式和过去分词 )

参考例句：

• The government's proposals unleashed a storm of protest in the press. 政府的提案引发了新闻界的抗议浪潮。
• The full force of his rage was unleashed against me. 他把所有的怒气都发泄在我身上。 来自《简明英汉词典》

4 barrage   

n.火力网，弹幕

参考例句：

• The attack jumped off under cover of a barrage.进攻在炮火的掩护下开始了。
• The fierce artillery barrage destroyed the most part of the city in a few minutes.猛烈的炮火几分钟内便毁灭了这座城市的大部分地区。

5 helping   

n.食物的一份&adj.帮助人的，辅助的

参考例句：

• The poor children regularly pony up for a second helping of my hamburger. 那些可怜的孩子们总是要求我把我的汉堡包再给他们一份。
• By doing this, they may at times be helping to restore competition. 这样一来, 他在某些时候,有助于竞争的加强。

6 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

7 tableau   

n.画面，活人画（舞台上活人扮的静态画面）

参考例句：

• The movie was a tableau of a soldier's life.这部电影的画面生动地描绘了军人的生活。
• History is nothing more than a tableau of crimes and misfortunes.历史不过是由罪恶和灾难构成的静止舞台造型罢了。

8 calculus   

n.微积分；结石

参考例句：

• This is a problem where calculus won't help at all.对于这一题，微积分一点也用不上。
• After studying differential calculus you will be able to solve these mathematical problems.学了微积分之后，你们就能够解这些数学题了。

9 isolation   

n.隔离，孤立，分解，分离

参考例句：

• The millionaire lived in complete isolation from the outside world.这位富翁过着与世隔绝的生活。
• He retired and lived in relative isolation.他退休后，生活比较孤寂。

10 ongoing   

adj.进行中的，前进的

参考例句：

• The problem is ongoing.这个问题尚未解决。
• The issues raised in the report relate directly to Age Concern's ongoing work in this area.报告中提出的问题与“关心老人”组织在这方面正在做的工作有直接的关系。

11 restrictions   

约束( restriction的名词复数 )； 管制； 制约因素； 带限制性的条件（或规则）

参考例句：

• I found the restrictions irksome. 我对那些限制感到很烦。
• a snaggle of restrictions 杂乱无章的种种限制

12 dilemma   

n.困境，进退两难的局面

参考例句：

• I am on the horns of a dilemma about the matter.这件事使我进退两难。
• He was thrown into a dilemma.他陷入困境。

13 outlet   

n.出口/路；销路；批发商店；通风口；发泄

参考例句：

• The outlet of a water pipe was blocked.水管的出水口堵住了。
• Running is a good outlet for his energy.跑步是他发泄过剩精力的好方法。

14 mechanisms   

n.机械( mechanism的名词复数 )；机械装置；[生物学] 机制；机械作用

参考例句：

• The research will provide direct insight into molecular mechanisms. 这项研究将使人能够直接地了解分子的机理。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• He explained how the two mechanisms worked. 他解释这两台机械装置是如何工作的。 来自《简明英汉词典》

15 circumvent   

vt.环绕，包围；对…用计取胜，智胜

参考例句：

• Military planners tried to circumvent the treaty.军事策略家们企图绕开这一条约。
• Any action I took to circumvent his scheme was justified.我为斗赢他的如意算盘而采取的任何行动都是正当的。

16 isolated   

adj.与世隔绝的

参考例句：

• His bad behaviour was just an isolated incident. 他的不良行为只是个别事件。
• Patients with the disease should be isolated. 这种病的患者应予以隔离。

17 entities   

实体对像； 实体，独立存在体，实际存在物( entity的名词复数 )

参考例句：

• Our newspaper and our printing business form separate corporate entities. 我们的报纸和印刷业形成相对独立的企业实体。
• The North American continent is made up of three great structural entities. 北美大陆是由三个构造单元组成的。

18 evading   

逃避( evade的现在分词 )； 避开； 回避； 想不出

参考例句：

• Segmentation of a project is one means of evading NEPA. 把某一工程进行分割，是回避《国家环境政策法》的一种手段。 来自英汉非文学 - 环境法 - 环境法
• Too many companies, she says, are evading the issue. 她说太多公司都在回避这个问题。

19 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。