美国国家公共电台 NPR--Supply chain issues and strong demand are fueling inflationary pressures

Supply chain issues and strong demand are fueling inflationary pressures

Transcript¹

NPR's Rachel Martin talks to Donald Kohn, former vice² chair of the Fed's Board of Governors, about what can be done to fight inflation, and the impact of the steps taken to get it under control.

RACHEL MARTIN, HOST:

We are all feeling the effects of high inflation right now. But what can be done to stop the current relentless³ rise of prices for food and gas and basically all the things? And how will we feel the impact of the steps that are taken to get it under control? I am joined by Donald Kohn. He is former vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors. Mr. Kohn, thanks for being here this morning.

DONALD KOHN: Good morning, Rachel. Good to be with you.

MARTIN: There are no easy solutions, as you know. But can you walk us through the rock and the hard place that the Fed is in right now?

KOHN: Well, I think you've characterized it well - the rock and the hard place. There are high inflation and very strong demands from people for goods and services, causing that inflation much stronger than can be produced by the available labor⁴ force. So people are bidding against each other for the goods and services, for the stuff they want to buy. The labor force can't produce it. People are bidding for the workers to produce it. That's driving up wages. So we've got prices and wages going up. The Fed - the rock and the hard place is the Fed wants to damp down that demand for goods and services, but not so far as to cause people to be unemployed⁵. So they want to keep the labor market going well.

MARTIN: I want to play a remark that President Biden made yesterday. Let's listen to this.

(SOUNDBITE OF ARCHIVED RECORDING)

PRESIDENT JOE BIDEN: There's a lot going on right now. But the idea we're going to be able to, you know, click a switch, bring down the cost of gasoline is not likely in the near term, nor is it with regard to food.

MARTIN: Is he right?

KOHN: Yes, he is right. Now, he and his options are limited here. He can do some things, as he's tried to do, to take the froth off the - take a little bit off of, like, the petroleum⁶ market by releasing petroleum reserves, leaning on the Saudis to produce more. He's worked on the shipping⁷ and the supply chain issues that have caused prices to rise. But that's very - neither of them is going to have a major, major effect. He has very few tools at his disposal. He could work on bringing more people into the country, legal immigration, taking down some of the tariffs⁸ that President Trump⁹ put on there. But obviously, those have political problems.

MARTIN: So the real lever here is monetary¹⁰ policy, which - that's the Fed's world, and interest rates are the tool that they can use to address this. Secretary of the Treasury¹¹ Janet Yellen told CNN this week that she made a mistake by saying last year that inflation was going to be a short-term problem. You yourself on this program almost a year ago said something similar, that inflation would fall off in coming months. How did experts get this so wrong?

KOHN: Well, I think a couple of things happened. One is that some of the disturbances¹² from the supply shock side of the economy - from COVID, waves of COVID infections and the Chinese shutting down their economy in order to deal with COVID infections - have kept the pressure on the supply side much longer than I or other people anticipated. Then you had the Russian invasion of Ukraine, which also - which took a lot of wheat and other food off the market. And the sanctions on Russia have taken oil and natural gas off the market. And so I think part of what we got wrong is there are repeated supply shocks. But the other part I think I wasn't as aware of as I should have been is just how strong demand has been, just what - how much the fiscal¹³ policy, the budget deficits¹⁴ and the easy monetary policy pushed up demand and has kept it strong.

MARTIN: Should the Fed have raised interest rates earlier?

KOHN: I think they could have moved a bit earlier. I think they could have - once they recognized the problem in the fall, they began to move pretty quickly. And at the time, I thought they might be - maybe should be moving a bit faster, but they've caught up. So I think they've recognized it. It took them a little while, but they've really taken steps not only to raise rates, but to start to run down their portfolio¹⁵ this month. And importantly, they've told us they're going to continue to raise rates, and that's had quite an effect on financial markets. So interest rates are higher, the exchange rate is higher, equity¹⁶ prices are lower, and that's going to damp spending.

MARTIN: Former vice chair of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors, Donald Kohn, we appreciate you taking the time to talk to us this morning, sir. Thank you.

KOHN: It's been good to be with you, Rachel.

1 transcript   

n.抄本，誊本，副本，肄业证书

参考例句：

• A transcript of the tapes was presented as evidence in court.一份录音带的文字本作为证据被呈交法庭。
• They wouldn't let me have a transcript of the interview.他们拒绝给我一份采访的文字整理稿。

2 vice   

n.坏事；恶习；[pl.]台钳，老虎钳；adj.副的

参考例句：

• He guarded himself against vice.他避免染上坏习惯。
• They are sunk in the depth of vice.他们堕入了罪恶的深渊。

3 relentless   

adj.残酷的，不留情的，无怜悯心的

参考例句：

• The traffic noise is relentless.交通车辆的噪音一刻也不停止。
• Their training has to be relentless.他们的训练必须是无情的。

4 labor   

n.劳动，努力，工作，劳工；分娩；vi.劳动，努力，苦干；vt.详细分析；麻烦

参考例句：

• We are never late in satisfying him for his labor.我们从不延误付给他劳动报酬。
• He was completely spent after two weeks of hard labor.艰苦劳动两周后，他已经疲惫不堪了。

5 unemployed   

adj.失业的，没有工作的；未动用的，闲置的

参考例句：

• There are now over four million unemployed workers in this country.这个国家现有四百万失业人员。
• The unemployed hunger for jobs.失业者渴望得到工作。

6 petroleum   

n.原油，石油

参考例句：

• The Government of Iran advanced the price of petroleum last week.上星期伊朗政府提高了石油价格。
• The purpose of oil refinery is to refine crude petroleum.炼油厂的主要工作是提炼原油。

7 shipping   

n.船运（发货，运输，乘船）

参考例句：

• We struck a bargain with an American shipping firm.我们和一家美国船运公司谈成了一笔生意。
• There's a shipping charge of ￡5 added to the price.价格之外另加五英镑运输费。

8 tariffs   

关税制度； 关税( tariff的名词复数 )； 关税表； （旅馆或饭店等的）收费表； 量刑标准

参考例句：

• British industry was sheltered from foreign competition by protective tariffs. 保护性关税使英国工业免受国际竞争影响。
• The new tariffs have put a stranglehold on trade. 新的关税制对开展贸易极为不利。

9 trump   

n.王牌，法宝；v.打出王牌，吹喇叭

参考例句：

• He was never able to trump up the courage to have a showdown.他始终鼓不起勇气摊牌。
• The coach saved his star player for a trump card.教练保留他的明星选手，作为他的王牌。

10 monetary   

adj.货币的，钱的；通货的；金融的；财政的

参考例句：

• The monetary system of some countries used to be based on gold.过去有些国家的货币制度是金本位制的。
• Education in the wilderness is not a matter of monetary means.荒凉地区的教育不是钱财问题。

11 treasury   

n.宝库；国库，金库；文库

参考例句：

• The Treasury was opposed in principle to the proposals.财政部原则上反对这些提案。
• This book is a treasury of useful information.这本书是有价值的信息宝库。

12 disturbances   

n.骚乱( disturbance的名词复数 )；打扰；困扰；障碍

参考例句：

• The government has set up a commission of inquiry into the disturbances at the prison. 政府成立了一个委员会来调查监狱骚乱事件。
• Extra police were called in to quell the disturbances. 已调集了增援警力来平定骚乱。

13 fiscal   

adj.财政的，会计的，国库的，国库岁入的

参考例句：

• The increase of taxation is an important fiscal policy.增税是一项重要的财政政策。
• The government has two basic strategies of fiscal policy available.政府有两个可行的财政政策基本战略。

14 deficits   

n.不足额( deficit的名词复数 )；赤字；亏空；亏损

参考例句：

• The Ministry of Finance consistently overestimated its budget deficits. 财政部一贯高估预算赤字。 来自《简明英汉词典》
• Many of the world's farmers are also incurring economic deficits. 世界上许多农民还在遭受经济上的亏损。 来自辞典例句

15 portfolio   

n.公事包；文件夹；大臣及部长职位

参考例句：

• He remembered her because she was carrying a large portfolio.他因为她带着一个大公文包而记住了她。
• He resigned his portfolio.他辞去了大臣职务。

16 equity   

n.公正，公平，（无固定利息的）股票

参考例句：

• They shared the work of the house with equity.他们公平地分担家务。
• To capture his equity,Murphy must either sell or refinance.要获得资产净值，墨菲必须出售或者重新融资。